In recent days, A shares have undergone considerable adjustment. Many people blame this decline on various curses, such as "419 Curse" and "88 Public Offering Curse".

For this "419 curse", you may feel it literally. It says that there is a high probability that the stock market will fall on April 19th every year. Of course, last Friday (that is, April 19), the "419 curse" did not work, but rose sharply.

and the "88 public offering curse" means that whenever the average position of partial stock funds reaches 88%, the stock market is prone to a sharp drop. The logic behind this curse is simple, because when the position reaches 88% or above, the stock market may be sold later because of the lack of incremental funds, which will lead to a decline.

According to the latest quarterly data of Public Offering of Fund, the average holding position of equity funds has reached 88.67%. So the market is very worried about this.

In fact, according to San Sijun, these spells are only a summary afterwards, and they can't predict the future.

Let's talk about this "88 public offering curse" here.

that sounds reasonable. Because the fund has no money to buy, it can only be changed or sold later, which will lead to market adjustment.

actually, the position of the fund is not static.

For example, when the market is good, it will attract a large number of investors who follow the trend to subscribe for the fund. Therefore, although the position in Public Offering of Fund has been very high before, the fund still has the money to add positions because of the new inflow of funds.

Also, when the market conditions are relatively poor, many investors with limited risk tolerance may choose to redeem the fund, so although the stock position of the previous fund is very low, it seems that there is money to increase the position, but because some investors have redeemed it, they may even reduce their positions.

second, 88% of stock positions now do not represent high positions.

according to the new regulations promulgated on August 8, 215, the position of equity funds cannot be less than 8%. So now 88% of stock positions can only be medium positions.

according to the previous logic, 6% to 75% of stock positions are low positions, 75% to 85% are medium positions, and more than 85% of stock positions are high positions.

Therefore, it is common for stock funds to hold more than 88% of their stock positions now, and there is not much comparability with history.

Third, compared with more than 1 years, Public Offering of Fund's influence is not as good as it used to be.

judging from the scale changes of equity funds and hybrid funds in the past 1 years, there is not much change. The specific data is from 2.9 trillion in January 28 to 2.6 trillion in March 219.

At the same time, the circulating market value of A shares increased from 8.4 trillion in January 28 to 45.6 trillion in March 219. In other words, Public Offering of Fund's influence on A shares decreased from 34.5% (2.9 trillion /8.4 trillion) to 5.7% (2.6 trillion /45.6 trillion).

So with the decline of Public Offering of Fund's influence, it is not certain whether this "curse of 88 public offering" will continue to be effective in the future.

finally, from the data of the big bull market from 213 to 215, although the position of equity funds reached 88% at that time, the market was not greatly affected.

So you really don't have to worry too much about these curses in the A-share market when investing in funds.