In the process of asset allocation, we must assess our risk tolerance in advance and have a complete, in-depth and thorough understanding of the products that need investment and the institutions behind them. Avoid rushing into some investment fields that seem profitable and have stable risks, but in fact they are undercurrent and may collapse at any time. Common ones are currency circles and various P2P financial platforms. Investing in these areas is not so much financial management as gambling. When you fully realize that it is gambling in essence, I believe you will automatically stay away.
Of course, not all risks are as terrible as those mentioned above. There are still risks, and they are also risks. But it is precisely because it is not so terrible that we have a greater chance of meeting him and being hurt by them.
This kind of products are often characterized by hard background and stable profit, but they are not breakeven in theory. Common ones are money funds and bonds. In normal times, they are really good things. On the one hand, with banks and formal financial institutions as credit endorsements, the security of the platform has been fully guaranteed. On the other hand, their historical performance also tells us that they never lose money, not only have interest, but also the interest is much higher than the current demand. Finally, even if you are not at ease, you can get it back at any time (often only 1 day), and even provide a limited amount of real-time payment (currently 1 0,000)-the so-called fast redemption. Through this combination boxing, the low risk of low-risk products seems to be guaranteed.
When we first saw such a low-risk product as cargo base, we seemed to think, God, how can there be such a good thing? I'll take out all my savings and deposit them in the cargo base-I can withdraw them at any time, and the interest rate is higher than that on a regular basis. Isn't that great? How long is the deposit term? Yes, this product has sufficient safety guarantee. Isn't it safe enough to have a bank to guarantee you? Is there anything safer?
But! You should note that it only guarantees that your principal will not disappear in a short time, but it does not guarantee that your principal will not disappear gradually. Especially when the country and people are safe and the situation is good, we will not think about it, nor will we feel that our principal may gradually disappear. But the problem is that the social situation will change. When the social situation changes, can you realize in time that what you have always trusted will never lose money (because you have never seen it lose money), and it is possible to quietly turn from profit to loss.
Unfortunately, the crisis in COVID-19 has really made us see many scenes that we have never seen before, and we may never see them again in our lifetime-all walks of life in society have been deeply affected, and the financial sector is no exception. In our general impression, the interest on bank deposits is only positive and not negative. Indeed, if the interest rate is positive when you deposit it, say, 3%, then no matter how long it takes, when you take it out, it must be given to you at the interest rate of 3%-because the bank deposit guarantees the principal and interest, so once we deposit it, we can ignore it for 10 thousand years.
This is not the case with money funds and money fund-based Yu 'ebao wealth management products (baby products) and current wealth management products. If you want to reap safety and higher interest rates at the same time, you must keep an eye on it-if you do, there is no problem-the real problem is that many people don't actually have this habit. Because of the good performance of these wealth management products in history, many people just regard high-interest demand wealth management as another kind of deposit and hold it safely and boldly for a long time-because relatively speaking, they are unwilling to hold those closed wealth management products for a long time, and they are unwilling to bear the inconvenience caused by those wealth management products locking in the principal for a long time.
When the real crisis (such as the new crown pneumonia crisis) comes, users who buy wealth management products seem to forget that some of their deposits are actually current wealth management products, and they are used to thinking that the money stored in these products will be as unbreakable as regular.
But this is not the case-the interests of the monetary fund will change-although we have always known this. They are always changing, but on the one hand, their changes are relatively gentle, on the other hand, their comprehensive income is still considerable in the long run. So to be precise, their normality should not be called change, but should be called fluctuation-fluctuation causes short-term losses at most and is safe in the long run (bonds look like this).
Unfortunately, these changes, which we usually regard as fluctuations, will quickly evolve into real changes in special circumstances-not only irreversible changes, but also unacceptable changes with high probability. For example, during the COVID-19 crisis, the average annualized rate of goods-based products dropped rapidly from 2.5% to about 2.0%, and the annualized rate of many star goods-based products (Yu 'ebao and WeChat Payment) even dropped to about 1.5-and all this changed only three months before and after.
According to the regulatory requirements of the central bank for the adjustment of product rules of commercial banks, the interest rate of these wealth management products is obviously higher than that of bank deposits, but the risk is close to that of bank deposits, and the subsequent interest rate trend will continue to move closer to bank deposits. Simply put, interest rates will be lower and lower. Different from stock funds-there is still hope to come up after the stock goes down. According to the future development of our country, the general direction is to only fall and not rise. So if you buy too much at once and ignore it for a long time, once the interest rate goes down, you may not be able to wait for it to rise back on its own.
Since interest rates will fall, how much? At present, the interest rate of current wealth management is basically around 3%, which is still higher than the general cargo base. However, the central bank only left the bank a transition period of 1 year for rectification, so if there is no accident, the interest rate should be similar to the current cargo base at this time next year, about 2%.
If this continues, will the interest rate become negative? This is not completely impossible-because in some developed countries (such as some European countries), in order to stimulate production and consumption, the deposit interest rate has long been negative. Therefore, even if banks manage their finances well, the future is not much better.
You must think that when the interest rate is really negative, I can't take out my financial management? But you forget that those who saved money with you but chose to deposit it in the bank still kept their money in the bank account at the interest rate at that time-after all, deposit not only guaranteed the principal and interest, but also guaranteed the original interest.
For example, in March this year, the annual interest rate of "free deposit" (a time deposit with file interest) of online merchant bank was 3%, while some goods-based wealth management products of China Merchants Bank were also 3%. However, due to the restrictions of the central bank and the uproar in COVID-19, the "free deposit" has changed from 2.7% in April to 2%, and the cargo base of China Merchants Bank has also changed to 2%-so the difference has come out-the money previously deposited in the "free deposit" will continue to bear interest at 3% until the end of three years, and you can close your eyes and take it safely after three years. The annualized amount previously deposited in China Merchants Bank's cargo-based wealth management immediately fell to 2%, which took effect immediately on the same day. Not only does it look bad now, but it will be even worse in the future-some cargo bases even fell to around 1.2%.
What a horrible thing it is-it was obviously deposited together, and it seemed so stable and tight at first-a 3% (deposit) and a 3. 1% (cargo-based financing), and even the latter seemed to have a slight advantage. However, just a few months later, it has become a heaven and an underground-which is why goods-based and current wealth management can only be used for a short time and purchased in small quantities-they are indeed not as safe as the historical curve looks, and they are indeed essentially different from deposits, and the difference is not small.
Of course, if you are lucky and find something wrong, it is no problem to take the money out of the current financial management in time. After all, you can stop loss in time. On the contrary, if you don't realize that there will be any problems at all, when you go to withdraw money with expectation one day, you will find-fuck, how come I only have so little money left? Isn't this financial management very stable? Remember to read everything before buying, and buy it when it is stable. At that time, the interest was quite high. Why are you still losing money? How can the money fund lose money? Shit, what a lie! ! !
Why can't we accept the bank's financial losses? Because we have never thought about it, nor have we seen it-but the real problem is that banks have never said that money funds will not lose money-and they have never said that these financial management based on money fund packaging will not lose money. On the contrary, there is a line under all wealth management products-wealth management is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Only by buying high-risk funds such as stocks and gold can we notice this line. This sentence is completely transparent when we buy money funds and manage our money on demand.
When we pay too much attention to high-risk investment, low-risk products quietly start cutting meat with a knife under the cover of subtle stereotypes.
It is precisely because in normal times, we overestimate the risks that low-risk products may bring, so they may eventually bring us no less losses than high-risk investments. Imagine, is it because of its low risk, our purchase quota is obviously higher, and the period of paying attention to it will be obviously longer? These behaviors indirectly amplify the losses that these low-risk products bring to us when they generate risks.
Therefore, low-risk products only have a low probability of generating risks, but once risks are generated, the losses brought to us are not necessarily low.
We have just said so much, all of which means that with the gradual growth of time, the interest rate of current wealth management will gradually come down. Some people will say, isn't it a wealth management product with a ladder interest rate? The longer the deposit time, the higher the interest rate. Isn't this a perfect solution to the problem that interest rates have been falling for too long?
In fact, the current wealth management products with stepped interest rates also have the same problem. Although it provides a ladder interest rate, its overall ladder interest rate also changes with time, and it is getting lower and lower-the final result is that it seems that the longer you save, the higher the interest rate. But unconsciously, the interest rate has been adjusted. It is equivalent to climbing a ladder. Although you climbed from the first step of the ladder to the second step, the whole ladder went down, so your height is not necessarily rising.
Similarly, in normal times, your interest rate increases with time. But in special times, extraordinary times, the ladder may fall faster than you climb up. If the ladder falls too fast, you may even fall down. So he looks safer on the surface, but in fact he is not so safe-because no one knows how fast the ladder will fall at a certain moment.
I'm not writing this to scare people, nor to prevent people from managing money. On the contrary, I often use money funds and other products for financial management myself. However, I hope that while enjoying financial convenience, we can also be aware of the corresponding potential risks.
Everyone is familiar with the bank's profit model-by absorbing deposits at a lower interest rate and then lending at a higher interest rate, the difference in the middle is earned. Banks certainly don't want us to be too sober and vigilant, because they make money by this information gap.
Many bank staff will also buy some current wealth management and goods-based products, which is true. However, it is necessary for everyone to realize a very important difference between us and them-when a crisis occurs, can we find it and stop it at the first time?
To some extent, money funds and some derivative bank demand financing are some non-performing loans finally released by banks. Banks don't want to bear the risks implied by these non-performing loans, but they can't bear the profits generated by those loans, so they make these loans into a product and transfer the risks at the expense of losing some profits, that is, the interest on the goods base and current wealth management products we see. Therefore, they can make a stable profit with low risk, and the first wave of people who encounter the corresponding risks of non-performing loans will become us.
The risks involved in this product are actually reflected in peacetime. Specifically, there will always be a group of people who can't repay on time, and the proportion of these people is much higher than that of high-quality loan users, so the interest rates of these products will fluctuate in a certain proportion in peacetime.
When the non-performing loans behind these products encounter great risks, of course, they will be more fragile than high-quality loans-because at that time, it is very likely that a large number of people will not be able to repay on time, and the final result, in our view, is a sharp drop in the interest rate of current wealth management products in the short term. If external risks are further aggravated, there is no doubt that the first wave of products that suffer losses must be such products, and the injured people must also be customers who buy this wave of products-they will become the first wave of bullets for banks. When the bullet didn't come, everything was fine; When the bullet came, they failed to find it in time and became glorious cannon fodder. This is the real meaning behind the logic of low-risk wealth management products, which is not at the same level as the "low-risk" fluctuations we usually see.
Most official WeChat accounts will guide people to buy various wealth management products of banks, so in a sense, they are actually a group. My article reveals too many things they don't want to see, so it may not exist for long.
Objectively speaking, there is really no perfect wealth management product, and there is no perfect asset allocation scheme-only the most suitable wealth management product and asset allocation scheme for everyone. And my purpose is to guide everyone to make the choice that suits their plan best.
Only in this process, we often encounter many temptations. Therefore, I hope everyone can be a rational person, fully see the risks behind various financial products, and make financial choices that can really benefit everyone.