The house claims to be able to resist inflation for a long time, which is not wrong. But the current real estate investment is really not cost-effective (I don't include the impact of cheap housing here, because I personally think that the impact of cheap housing on commercial housing is limited). I take a commercial house in Tianjin as an example (my house is upstairs, so I know it better). House 100 square meters, minimum value of 800,000, annual rent of 40,000. This rent is already the highest, and it can't be rented out if it is higher. If you do this, if you buy it at 800,000 yuan, excluding the miscellaneous expenses such as decoration, the rate of return this year is 40,000/800,000 =5%, which can't even run away from inflation. This year's CPI is 6-7%, and this is only calculated according to the lowest house price. As far as I know, this owner won't sell his house, so I don't think it's appropriate to buy a house now.
Note: 1. This only refers to Tianjin. I don't have all the information in my hand, and I don't understand some places. But as far as I know, most of the yields are less than 5%!
I am talking about residential real estate. Commercial real estate is different from residential real estate. I haven't studied it.
Under certain conditions, buying a house with "loan leverage" has a higher return on investment than buying a house with your own pocket, but now the mortgage interest rate is still very high, so don't think about this road. I have also calculated the housing savings between China and Germany. Although its loan interest rate is very low (even lower than the provident fund), it is not suitable because of the short repayment time, because it will increase the monthly payment of the house and make the yield lower.
Some people say, why should we calculate the rent? We want to buy a house at the bottom, so that we can make money from its rising price. What's the rental fee? Here, I might as well tell you my thoughts. I think that once the prices of things in a market "generally" rise, there is only one reason, that is, funds continue to flow into this market, but why do funds flow into this market? Very simple, because this market is profitable! I think "profitable" here means that the "minimum rate of return on capital" can run through the three mountains of "price CPI", "one-year bank time deposit interest" and "national debt yield", so that funds can flow into this market. The ancestors put it well: they are not afraid of not knowing the goods, but they are afraid to shop around. Capital will always only flow to the place with the highest rate of return ("the lowest rate of return on capital" is reflected in real estate, that is, rent/house price, because this is a locked profit. Rent is relatively stable, and the level of rent depends on the average income of local people. Some people say that falling house prices will inevitably lead to falling rents, not necessarily, because rents will hardly be affected if local income does not drop sharply. However, if the local income drops for some reason, then even if there is no accident in the property, the rent will definitely drop. There is very little real estate bubble in Tianjin, so the decline in house prices has not led to a decline in average income and rent, but has increased, at least in cities, because people who can't afford to buy houses have gone to rent houses, so to some extent, demand exceeds supply. ), so I think that when the rate of return on buying a house can't even run away from inflation, people with big funds will definitely not enter the real estate market. Imagine if you had 100 million yuan to invest in real estate, and in the last year, the return on investment even lagged behind inflation. Would you like it? In fact, it is the rich who suffer the most from inflation. Put yourself in his shoes! )? So my conclusion is that the current real estate investment is not cost-effective, at least in Tianjin. (The liquidity of real estate is not very good, and the liquidity is poor)
Gold, which claims to be anti-inflation, is "hard currency". But this was said decades ago, because the monetary system was the "gold standard" at that time, but it is no longer the case. I roughly calculated that the annual yield of gold is only 3% (depending on the price increase). Do you think long-term holding is appropriate?
Note: 65438+February 1 0989: The price of gold denominated in US dollars has dropped by 52% from the all-time high of1October 20th, 850 US dollars. In this decade, the inflation rate in the United States has increased by 90%, and Japan, which is famous for its low inflation rate, is also at the level of 20%. This trend of gold shows that it has no ability to resist inflation, and gold should be removed from the "hedged goods" (interestingly, if calculated in Japanese yen, the price of gold has dropped the most in the past decade, reaching 75%).
The stock market is now the target of public criticism, but to be honest, some stocks in the stock market are already very valuable, and even a few have outperformed CPI this year, even reaching more than 10%. This is by no means nonsense (too many people don't believe what I said, they always say how such a good thing can happen, in fact, I think some things are just dark under the lights, and the closer we get, the less clear we are. In a way, it's a little hateful. It's okay to hold shares for a long time, but selling stocks without authorization is a taboo in our financial industry, so you can add me 6499883 16 for a chat if you are interested (note: I am a value investor, I don't know any technology, I don't do bands, and I only earn those "deterministic" high returns). If I'm not interested, forget it, because people are scared by stocks now. . . . . . . (speechless)
Bonds: national debt is not mentioned, but it is better than banks. Corporate bonds have a high yield this year, but be careful that some companies have high interest rates, but their own operating conditions are not very good, so the company's financial situation may deteriorate, and some bonds may fail in the future (that is, the target company will go bankrupt). There are no rating companies in China, and some people simply don't know the risks involved in bonds, and just rob them because of the high interest rate. . . . . . (speechless). (Note: The corporate bonds of Guangdong Expressway may be issued in the near future. This company is not bad and financially stable. It can be noted that this year's corporate bonds have all passed CPI! )
If you really want to buy a fund, I think it should be dumbbell-shaped (only a "long-term" index fund with regular investment). Stock fund managers are so rubbish that they sing too much at 6000 and empty at 2000. Do you think they have normal logical thinking? Resolutely don't buy theirs)
Harvest 300 is really good, not to mention, but it is mainly a large-cap stock, which cannot cover the economic growth of China as a whole. I think we should add another one: small and medium-sized board etf 159902.
Some private equity funds in China are very good, but the threshold is several million.
In short, the opportunities I see are mainly in the stock market.
Note: You may have noticed that I mentioned "long-term holding" many times. Many people around me say that you can't make long-term investment in China, but I think China is suitable for long-term investment. There are not many good enterprises in China, but it is precisely because there are not many that these enterprises are precious! ! !
Once again, I sincerely hope you can treat your wealth well.