it broke through 3 points, reached 32 points at the station, reached 33 points at the station, and then broke through 34 points unconsciously.

is the bull market coming?

1. The history of brokerage stocks becoming the leading sector

is always similar. The same script was staged again after six years.

at the beginning of July, brokers collectively staged a daily limit, leading the market to break through the market and hit a 14-month high. Judging from the historical bull market, brokers generally precede the market, and brokers skyrocket, which brings popularity. This round of brokerage sector soared for five days, leading the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 3,3 points, and the transaction volume once again returned to more than one trillion.

brokers take the lead in making efforts, so it can be said that the mission has been basically completed, and the rest is left to the market to show their magical powers.

2. Northbound funds hit a record high

With the enthusiasm of the domestic market, Northbound funds did not show weakness, and the net purchase for three consecutive days exceeded 1 billion, accounting for more than 1% of the total market turnover, setting a record high.

Northbound capital is the capital flowing from Hong Kong stock market into mainland stock market. Although it accounts for a relatively small proportion in the whole A-share market, its trend has obvious directive function on A-shares, and it is an indicator of the sentiment of foreign capital in allocating A-shares.

3. Volume supports the stock price to rise

There is a saying that "the sky is sky-high", which shows the importance of keeping up with the volume. In the bull market in 215, the trading volume of that day exceeded 2 trillion, and the system was once down, which was crazy.

trading volume can truly reflect the change of supply and demand. If there is no trading volume to support the rise of stock market price, it is probably just a fake market. When the turnover exceeds one trillion, the market will be excited and feel the heat is coming. Nowadays, the trading volume of the two cities continues to be active, which has exceeded 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive days, and the support of stock prices has been basically available.

4. The balance between the two financial institutions continued to rise

Since June, the balance between the two financial institutions has greatly increased by nearly 1 billion yuan, and the market confidence has picked up and the activity has obviously improved.

On the whole, the current market is really good, and the volume and price are also very compatible. The four leading indicators have arrived, and foreign capital has been laid out in advance, and the screen is full of the smell of a bull market.

what did the experts say?

Although there are many signs, cautious investors will still ask: Is the bull market really coming? Is this a good opportunity to enter?

In the midst of a hot market, Guotai Junan's latest research report shouted out 3,5 points, indicating that it is optimistic that the market outlook will break through 3,3 points and wait for 3,5 points.

the institution believes that the most important feature of current A-shares is the low valuation to make up for the increase.

first, the current market situation is still dominated by large market capitalization, and "size switching" has not yet occurred.

second, a small increase will not lead to a large increase. as can be seen from the comparison between "styles" and "industries", there is no obvious law that a small increase last week will make up for the increase this week. correspondingly, low valuation styles and industries perform better.

Third, unlike before, the rise of cyclical stocks such as building materials and coal is not caused by the fundamental logic of conventional cyclical industries such as "infrastructure stimulus and expanding domestic demand", but by the decline of risk-free interest rates under financial reform. The reason can not be found in the economic environment, but in the financial logic.

The agency pointed out that the essence of low valuation is the downward risk-free interest rate. It is the logic under the rotation of stock funds that the varieties that have risen less make up for the increase; The valuation of low-valued varieties is the result of incremental funds. The current market can only be explained by the downward trend of risk-free interest rates.

Lin Yuan, a private equity firm, said that all kinds of indicators and market performance are now in the bull market. When entering the initial stage of the bull market, it is firm to judge that A shares have entered the bull market cycle, which is more firm than the judgment on the initial stage of the bull market two months ago. Now is the market deduction of the bear at the end and the cow at the beginning. At the beginning of the bull market, companies with large market value often continue to rise.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that the A-share market has been rising sharply recently, and the Shanghai Composite Index has continuously broken through the integer mark of 3, points and 3,1 points, which has established a "full bull market" trend. The wind vane brokerage stocks of the market rose continuously, and many stocks impacted the continuous growth, which brought a clear signal.

Of course, some experts believe that it is hard to say how long the market will last.

Xia Chun, chief economist of Noah Holdings, said that at present, it can only be said that the market performance of A shares since the end of March 22 is a real bull, but it is hard to say how long this round of market can last.

Xia Chun explained that the current trend of A shares is a combination of economic fundamentals (PMI data, housing data, automobile sales data, etc.) and technical aspects (fiscal and monetary policies, registration system, merger expectations of financial institutions, etc.), but the valuation of some A shares is still under adjustment pressure.

some experts believe that it depends on the change of liquidity.

Li Qilin, chief economist of Yuekai Securities and dean of the research institute, said that the main driver of this round of A-share rising market is liquidity.

Li Qilin believes that in the first half of this year, during the epidemic spreading stage, the transmission effect of credit easing to entities was weak. This will inevitably lead to the accumulation of currency liquidity. This money will more or less flow into the market directly or indirectly. Another factor is that the dollar liquidity supply is also abundant, which is reflected in the large-scale inflow of funds from the north.

third, how will the market go in the future?

now it's rising well, what about the subsequent market?

Li Qilin believes that at the current time, the high probability of emotion can also "push" the market upward. Optimistic about the long-term investment value of China's capital market in the future economic and financial transformation.

Similarly, Lei, chief research official of Xingshi Investment, is also optimistic about the follow-up market. He believes that under the impact of the epidemic, enterprises in all fields will deeply realize that the industrial chain with stable supply capacity is the most valuable, and high-quality enterprises in China are expected to gain new business increments. This is the confidence of the follow-up market of the stock market.

which specific industries will prosper? Lei Fang said: First, growth stocks in science and technology, medicine and other fields represent the long-term development direction, and have a large long-term growth space. Second, with the accelerated economic recovery, a considerable number of high-quality enterprises in the consumption and cycle categories have gained more room for growth through scale expansion and excellent management.

However, Li Qilin also reminded that different investors have different investment styles and profit patterns, and suggested that investors invest rationally according to their personal investment styles and funds.

fourth, how should ordinary people enter the market?

retail investors in China suffered seven losses, two draws and one profit. 9% can't make money. Anyone who enters the stock market with a gambling mentality, 99 are among those who lose money.

It is a myth to get rich in the stock market, especially those who are immature and lack relevant experience and skills.

more investors do not think deeply about their strengths and weaknesses in the stock market during the investment process. What are the advantages of investing in the stock market for ordinary investors?

investor advantage: sorry, no. Except for the funds that can be invested, the rest are all disadvantages.

disadvantages of investors:

? 1. There is no basic knowledge about the stock market; 2. Lack of ability to recognize and avoid risks; 3. No stock selection and stock selection ability; 4. Can't rationally analyze the stock market and the level of listed companies; 5. There is no calm mood; 6. There is no mature strategy implementation; 7. Even the investment time depends on the work schedule.

Therefore, the advantages and disadvantages of ordinary investors in the stock market are only disadvantages.

and can ordinary investors see this disadvantage clearly? Can it be changed? It's hard! Not only the study of basic knowledge, but also the accumulation of experience for many years, and the ability to establish strategy implementation. The most important thing is basic cognition, and there is no way to change it. Such a change is a big change from managing emotions to managing funds, rather than changing a way of thinking.

under this disadvantage background, it is difficult for ordinary investors to survive in the stock market for a long time.

Financial writer Lei Li has just burst into a circle of friends after four incidents of selling houses and speculating in stocks. His experience is as follows:

The first time he sold a house was in June 21, and the price of a 65-square house was 4, yuan, but the result was that he lost 9% and shrank to 4, yuan;

The second sale was in June 24, and the 73-square-meter house sold for 25, yuan. Outcome: 99% loss;

I sold the house for the third time. In December 212, the house was 41 square meters and the selling price was 32, yuan. Outcome: I earned 3 times, but I didn't save the stock market crash;

I sold the house for the fourth time. On August 1, 217, the house was 7 square meters and the selling price was 5, yuan. Outcome: unknown, waiting for the verdict of fate.

The lesson Riley just taught is to distinguish between bulls and bears before selling a house. Although selling houses and speculating in stocks for four times, his opinion is that this is a very desperate thing, and ordinary investors don't have "Jin Gangzuan", so don't take "porcelain work". Because if you make a mistake, you will see a house disappear from your eyes.

it's no wonder that people who once sold houses and stocks laughed at themselves, saying that buying a house is the first thing if you invest 1 million yuan. Selling a house to buy stocks, relatives shed two tears.

You know, Lei Ligang also earned 3 times, but finally left the market empty-handed.

The most reasonable way for ordinary investors to invest in the stock market is to invest in funds with relevant investment value stocks every month.