In 20 19, the scale and profitability of Public Offering of Fund reached a new high. With the awakening of public awareness of financial management, Public Offering of Fund has become the first choice for more and more people.
It is said that buying funds saves time and effort, and holding funds for a long time can obtain stable income. However, the question is: how long is the long term? Are there any funds suitable for long-term holding?
0 1 Different types of funds have different optimal holding periods. After many investors buy a fund, the first question they encounter is, how long will it take for the fund to get the best return? One year, three years or five years?
Holding time is short, afraid of missing the later increase; If you hold it for too long and are afraid of meeting the bull and bear in the market, the fund income will become "book income" and "flower in the mirror" and "moon in the water"
The data shows that the longer you hold stock funds or bond funds, the higher the probability of making money. This conclusion is basically in line with our understanding that funds are suitable for long-term investment.
Specifically, equity funds can be held for 8 years, which can basically guarantee a positive return of 100%; Bond funds are much less risky, holding for more than 2 years, and basically guarantee a positive return of 100%.
Of course, there is also a statistical loophole. In the process of data statistics, only the funds last long enough can be included in the statistics. Those funds with poor performance have long been liquidated and delisted, and their performance cannot be reflected in the data.
In the market, it is difficult for us to guarantee the long-term existence of the funds we buy. Some bad funds are still losing money for a long time, and finally they can only be liquidated and withdrawn. This is the "survivor bias".
In addition to pursuing positive returns, buying funds also pursues "earning more". Therefore, when measuring the specific length of "long-term holding", we have to consider the annualized rate of return of the target fund.
As we all know, the stock market fluctuates periodically, and there is almost no stock market that rises unilaterally in the capital market. So the longer the fund is held, the better, but it is more efficient to make money.
Equity funds, held for 3-5 years, have the highest probability of obtaining 10% annualized income. A-share market usually takes five years as a cycle and fluctuates up and down. Before the market enters the down cycle, selling the fund and taking profits can improve the income of the fund.
For bond funds, its linkage with the stock market is very small. If you want to achieve 5% annualized income, you have to hold it longer than stock funds. The holding time of the first-class bond fund is 10 year, and the holding time of the second-class bond fund is 9 years, which can basically guarantee the annualized income of 5%.
To sum up, the longer the fund is held, the smaller the probability of loss; But if you want to get higher annualized income, the longer you hold it, the better. The best holding time of stock funds is 3-5 years, while bond funds want to get higher returns and hold them for longer.
Not all funds are suitable for "long-term holding" to buy funds or tickets. Only a solid hull and a reliable captain can ensure that we sail to the other side of wealth instead of "sinking" halfway.
Excellent fund managers have a sound investment style. No matter how the market changes, he can stick to his investment principles instead of drifting with the tide. Such a fund has a stable style and outstanding long-term performance, which is suitable for long-term holding.
Why don't we buy funds and go to the stock market in person? It is precisely because of the professional skills of fund companies that the research and investment capabilities of fund companies are directly related to the long-term profitability of funds.
On the one hand, we can examine the talent reserve of fund companies. A good fund company has strong talent cohesion and stable team. On the other hand, you can look at the number of five-star funds under the fund company. Only one star fund company is unreliable, and all its funds can stand out among similar funds, which can better explain the strength of the company.
The introduced funds are suitable for long-term holding. How long is this for? In fact, this problem cannot be measured by specific years. We choose to invest in order to make our property get more income on the premise of preserving its value. So when we invest in funds, how long should we hold them before choosing to redeem them?
Three Principles of Selling Funds These three principles are derived from Buffett's three principles of selling stocks, and are also very useful in China's fund market.
1, the fundamentals have deteriorated.
When we study financial reports, we often find that revenues and profits have been good for several years in a row, but suddenly in a certain year, because of the bad environment, the performance has fallen sharply. After that, we judged that the company's own business problems have a great impact on the future, so this is the so-called fundamental deterioration. Obviously, this situation will be much less in the fund, but when we choose the industry index fund, we should judge what the industry as a whole is in. If the whole industry is declining, then it can be judged that the fundamentals have changed, and then it needs to be sold.
2. There are better investment targets.
When we invest, the funds in hand are limited. When we find that the fund we hold is not as good as another fund we have been optimistic about for a long time, we can consider changing positions. But the premise is that it must not be too frequent and must be accurate. Otherwise, in the capital market, it is not uncommon to ride a horse to find a horse, which requires us to make a good judgment in advance.
3, seriously overestimated
The so-called fund is suitable for long-term holding, but if you have to say how many years to hold it, you may not be able to make money. It is quite possible to ride a roller coaster. China A-share bulls are short and bear long, and fluctuate for a long time. When we insist on holding it for five or ten years, we may not make a penny. Therefore, when we find that the funds in hand are overvalued or at the top of history, we can consider selling moderately to lock in profits. If you double into the high valuation area in just half a year after buying a fund, it does not mean that you must hold it for a long time. At this time, you should choose redemption and find better investment varieties.
The smile curve of fixed investment fund In fact, for value investors, fixed investment fund is a good method. We can't judge where the bottom is, but we can roughly judge a bottom area and buy slowly from the bottom area, so that although we won't buy the lowest point, the buying area will not be high, and the share will gradually increase.
When we collect enough chips in the bottom area and hold them for a period of time, when the index goes up, we will consider selling in the historical high area. Historically, the China stock market has experienced a bull-bear cycle of about 5-7 years. It takes a period before we can understand the power of fixed investment and compound interest.
Conclusion Therefore, the fund is suitable for long-term holding, mainly for those who are not firm speculators. Many people clearly hold a good fund in their hands, but in a very short period of time, they hope to sigh with joy and frequently change positions to chase up the good fund. The result is quilt cover after buying, but the previous positions have started to rise. What the stock market lacks most is patience, what it fears most is greed, and what is most rare and valuable is normality.
Can graduates with no experience do it?