The epidemic situation in China has been effectively controlled, and the economy has also taken the lead in recovery, which has brought very good opportunities for the development of the industry, and the capital market in China has also been recognized by more and more institutions. Liquor is on hot search again. There are great differences on the performance of liquor in the market. As an investment broker, I have my own opinion. I think this year's liquor fund may not have a good performance, and it is basically impossible to rise, because liquor has risen for more than three years, and the value of individual stocks has basically doubled. It is very good to maintain high volatility this year. I am relatively bearish on the liquor fund.
First, the valuation of the liquor sector has been relatively high, and it is unlikely to continue to rise.
As we all know, any stock rise must have its logic. As a consumer stock, the performance of liquor sector is very stable, which is the real reason for the rise of liquor for three consecutive years. Stocks can't go up forever. When the valuation is higher than the value, there will be a bubble. The average price-earnings ratio of liquor sector is about 50 times, which is obviously higher as a consumer sector. This is the real reason why the liquor sector will not rise sharply.
Second, will the liquor sector plummet?
The biggest advantage of liquor as a consumer sector is that its performance is relatively stable and its flexibility is better. I think it is unlikely that the liquor sector will plummet, because the market has changed a lot in the last two years, and value investment has begun to take root in people's hearts. Liquor, as an excellent consumer sector, will return to its value when it plummets, which will definitely lead to underestimation. This is also the real reason why I don't think the liquor sector will plummet.
Third, the high oscillation of liquor plate is the main theme.
Everyone knows that the liquor sector is the first goal of value investors. There is no advantage in liquor valuation, and institutions or funds will not open positions again because the price/performance ratio is not high. In the coming year, the liquor sector is likely to be dominated by shocks, and there will be no major fluctuations.