After raising interest rates four consecutive times by 75 basis points, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again by 50 basis points at its latest meeting.
However, Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital and the "New Bond King", pointed out on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve should not continue to raise interest rates after this, although he believes that the bank may increase interest rates by 25 basis points.
That's consistent with a forecast he issued after last month's Fed meeting.
At the time, he pointed out that the Fed might only raise interest rates twice, by a total of 75 basis points.
In addition, in an interview on Monday, he also said that the Fed's turn next year may be as rapid as when it "turned to significant interest rate hikes before."
He believes there is more than a 75% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at some point in 2023.
At this December meeting, the FOMC slowed the rate increase to 50 basis points, and the federal funds rate range was raised to 4.25%-4.50%, reaching the highest value since December 2007.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated his hawkish stance at the press conference after the meeting, saying, "We still have more work to do, and we expect continued interest rate increases to be appropriate to be sufficiently restrictive."
As for the next rate hike, Powell said it will depend on future data and the job market and cannot yet be determined.
He also dismissed bets on a reversal of course next year, saying "until the committee is confident that inflation is falling to 2%, I don't think we will consider cutting rates." Recession risk exceeds 75% Gundlach also reiterated that "many" indicators are
It indicates that the United States is about to enter an economic recession, the economic situation is in a "very late cycle", and the risk of recession exceeds 75%.
On inflation, Gundlach expressed doubts about the idea that inflation will stop at 2% once it enters a downward phase.
He believes inflation could be falling faster than most people think and could even hit zero.
The bond market has "fully priced in the fact that inflation has peaked and is receding."
When it comes to the S&P 500, he said it seems "everyone" has mentioned the 4,250 target, but he doubts the index can reach those highs given the current economic climate.