Summary: 1. Author’s point of view: 1) We are currently in the middle of the bubble, not the end yet; running early may miss some opportunities; 2) The article provides a large amount of data comparing with past crises, and gives us a summary of history from multiple perspectives.

Observe and predict the future (AD Line, big blue chips vs. small stocks; rising speed; investor consensus); 3) Pay attention to the speed of the stock market rising again. If it rises another 20%-40%, you must be very careful and be ready to jump off the train at any time. The deadline is about

Half a year to one and a half years; 4) Pay more attention to emerging markets, allocate emerging markets and big blue chips before exploding, and pay attention to promising companies in small sectors. 2. Personally, I think the methodology inside is quite important.

Especially small stocks and AD lines.

You can imitate and learn to deepen your understanding.

The author's summary at the end is very high level, and you can take a more conservative approach to guard against it: This time it is a big correction, and the bubble has not broken yet (actually because the bubble is not big enough and the market is not crazy enough, so the Dow fell 2,000 points

Not even 10% actually has no place in history).

Of course, the VIX has been hovering in the 10-55 range recently, showing that investors are still scared.

But let’s not forget that it has only been a week since the big drop.

People don't forget pain that quickly (Wang Yayuan said it takes 10 days).

Therefore, I believe that in two weeks (after the Spring Festival), most polls will say that the correction is over, hurry up and buy bargains, and then the market will continue to be crazy.

3. What needs to be done now is to take advantage of the gap between do nothing and study what to buy when the market pulls back, and set an exit point for each stock.

Evacuate decisively when the point is reached.

Examine ETFs for small stocks and emerging markets (SEA seems good to me).

At the same time, look for any stocks where the market overconverns this time (I really think Sogou is innocent...) 4. When choosing stocks in the future, please choose some that you have observed or really researched.

The so-called research means that at least you won't be asked by Cherry or Xuanxuan.

Otherwise, the research is not thorough and we need to redo it.

In addition, please be cautious if you are in an area that you are very unfamiliar with.

5. I remember my comment in 2017 that among the black swans in 2018, the collapse of the Chinese economy and the surge in the U.S. and North Korea are most likely.

I just have a gut feeling and feel that it is a bit abnormal for North Korea to go to the South Korean Winter Olympics so smoothly and with such a friendly attitude.

We should put a question mark on anything that is too over.

Could it be that Xiao Jin is trying to buy some time?

If a war breaks out, two black swans will be triggered at the same time. At that time, the bubble will naturally explode.

But not until the midterm elections.

6. It follows the previous paragraph, so be sure to light your position in November.

1. Everyone throws money away for year-end taxes.

2. There will be variables next year and we need to re-evaluate the situation.

The author puts forward the summary at the end: 1. In the next six months to two years (I don’t think that much), the possibility of the market entering an accelerated upward stage will reach 50% (actually this is a 50-50 chance, so I think we have to rely on ourselves

Judgment, this indicator is not good.) 2. If the stock market obviously accelerates its rise (it feels a bit difficult at the moment. Watch the time when S&P reaches 3600), the probability of collapse will reach 90%. 3. If it falls, the decline may reach a high point.

50% (I buy this. The last crisis was from 13,000 to 6,500 points, DJ) 4. If it falls, it may rebound to 15x PE 5. The author’s investment advice: pay more attention to emerging markets and EAFE index funds (I think

Pay attention to Indonesia and Thailand, they have recently had a craze like the Internet in China); try to buy high momentum stocks (hot stocks, this is contrary to what the author said, but it is actually a way to seize the last tail, and then anytime

Prepare to jump); be ready to lighten your position at any time.

Observe emerging markets 6. Accelerating the rise will be beneficial to the current government and even the mid-term elections (the mid-term elections are in November this year, and the Communist Party and the party will not allow the economy to become abnormal in order to win back public opinion), but it will fall miserably afterwards.

(This term is in line with the author's expected time point) Jeremy Grantham proposed: "When judging the stage of a market bubble, 1) Is the valuation accelerating, and 2) Is the market sentiment extremely optimistic? It is much more important than the position of the valuation itself.

And price itself is not a sufficient condition for a bubble. (You need to think independently. How long does it take for optimism to be the last 20% of a bubble? One year?) "From this perspective, it may be able to explain what Howard Marks said about bubbles, but last time

It's early, it's quite accurate this time, and Jeremy was accurate last time and this time.