I. Dollars and gold

When the dollar falls, gold rises, while when gold falls, the dollar tends to rise, and gold and the dollar are negatively correlated for most of the year. Why can the dollar affect the price of gold so strongly?

There are three main reasons: first, the US dollar is the pillar of the current international monetary system, and the US dollar and gold are the most important reserve assets. The strength and stability of the US dollar weakened the position of gold as a reserve asset and a value-preserving function. Second, American GDP still accounts for 1/4 of the world GDP, and the total foreign trade is the highest in the world, which deeply affects the world economy, while the price of gold is obviously inversely proportional to the quality of the world economy. Third, the world gold market is generally priced in dollars, so the depreciation of the dollar will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of gold. For example, at the end of the 20th century, when the price of gold reached a low point, people threw out gold in succession, which was closely related to the continuous growth of American economy 100 months and the strength of the US dollar.

Second, the dollar and oil.

As the world's largest oil consumer and net importer, the rise in oil prices will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the US economy and lead to fluctuations in the real exchange rate of the US dollar. Historically, all previous oil crises have caused the recession of the American economy, which is the main reason for the fluctuation of the real exchange rate of the US dollar. However, the analysis of the real exchange rate trend of the US dollar will be different from that of the general oil importing countries. The main reason is that international oil transactions are all denominated and settled in US dollars, and the rise in oil prices means an increase in demand for US dollars, so the US dollar may remain a strong currency, which makes the analysis complicated.

Scholars' theoretical research and empirical analysis show that the fluctuation of oil price is the main factor leading to the change of the real exchange rate of the US dollar. To sum up, the sharp rise in oil prices mainly affects the nominal exchange rate of the US dollar through the following three ways, and then affects the fluctuation of the real exchange rate of the US dollar.

First of all, rising oil prices will increase the cost of means of production and living in an all-round way, leading to an increase in inflation rate, which in turn will increase the demand for nominal money and domestic credit, thus attracting more foreign investment into the United States. The inflow of foreign capital will lead to the rise of the exchange rate of the US dollar. At the same time, domestic monetary policy in the United States tends to strengthen the appreciation of the dollar. At the beginning of rising oil prices, the Federal Reserve often adopts tight monetary policies such as raising interest rates to control inflation, so that the increase in interest rates will attract more foreign capital inflows and lead to the rise of the nominal exchange rate of the US dollar.

Secondly, the rising oil price makes the oil exporting countries have a trade surplus, and the foreign exchange reserves mainly in US dollars increase, resulting in the so-called "petrodollars", which will enter the international financial market to buy a large number of US dollar assets for profit-seeking, and then lead to the rise of the nominal exchange rate of the US dollar.

Third, the continuous rise in oil prices will lead to the recession of the world economy, making the balance of payments of oil-importing countries uncertain. Therefore, these countries have increased the proportion of US dollar assets in their foreign exchange reserves to maintain the stability of the exchange rate, which further increases the demand for US dollars and leads to the rise of the nominal exchange rate of US dollars.

Under the comprehensive effect of the above three influencing mechanisms, the nominal exchange rate of the US dollar rises when the oil price rises. When the nominal exchange rate rises, the change of the real exchange rate level depends on the ratio of the domestic price level in the United States to the foreign price level. Because the oil consumption in the United States is greater than that in other countries, the impact of rising oil prices on the overall price level in the United States is greater than that in other countries. In this way, the rise of the relative price level is consistent with the change direction of the nominal effective exchange rate, so when the oil price rises, the real exchange rate level of the US dollar will also rise.

The dollar index shows that

Surprisingly, the US dollar index is not from CBOT or CME, but from new york Cotton Exchange (NYCE). New york Cotton Exchange was founded in 1870, which was originally composed of a group of cotton merchants and middlemen. At present, it is the oldest commodity exchange in new york and the most important cotton futures and options exchange in the world. 1985, new york cotton exchange established the finance department, and officially entered the global financial commodity market. The first is the US dollar index futures. The calculation principle of dollar index futures is based on the trade volume between major countries in the world and the United States, with 100 as the dividing line, and the overall strength of the dollar is calculated in a weighted way. A * * * takes 10 countries as the calculation object, mainly euros, Japanese yen, Swiss francs and pounds. Price influencing factors

1. The overall performance of the American economy-the strength of the currency is the embodiment of the national strength.

I trade current account (trade deficit)

Since the second half of 1999, the American economy has been expanding continuously. Stronger consumer demand and the substantial expansion of corporate investment have led to a sustained and substantial increase in imports. However, due to the failure of export growth, the gap of trade deficit continues to widen. It stands to reason that this time must be solved by the effect of currency depreciation. However, because the United States still adheres to the strong dollar policy, the trade deficit continues to expand, which will inevitably affect the strong position of the dollar in the long run.

B. Unemployment rate

1At the end of 999, the unemployment rate in the United States fell to the lowest level since the 1960s. Fearing that the tightening of the labor market will lead to inflation and thus reduce corporate profits, the Federal Reserve began to adopt a series of tight monetary policies, which almost caused a hard landing crisis for the American economy, and the unemployment rate even reached a new high of 5438+0 in recent years in March 2006.

C, enterprise profit (profit)

Affected by labor cost, capital cost and slow consumption, the profit level of American enterprises is declining year by year. Since the beginning of this year, the continuous release of corporate profit warning and downward adjustment of financial measurement will seriously threaten the economic strength of the United States.

D. Growth of Productivity

If productivity keeps growing, even if labor costs increase, even if employment costs increase, it will not lead to inflation. Then, the key to a smooth soft landing in the United States will be productivity. However, since the beginning of this year, the capital utilization rate and capital equipment expenditure have hit record lows, which is not an optimistic news for the improvement of productivity. Recently, all walks of life, including Greenspan, are urging the Bush administration to speed up the training of skilled workers. This plan will have the opportunity to greatly improve the labor structure and thus increase productivity. On the whole, it is predicted that the growth of productivity will gradually tend to be flat this year, and there is still the motivation to curb inflation.

2. Interest rate trends in the United States

Because the United States has a fairly strong and independent central bank, monetary decision-making has a key impact on its overall economic performance, so every routine interest rate adjustment meeting of the Federal Reserve will have a more or less impact on the foreign exchange market. As the interest rate directly affects the fixed income of foreign currency deposits, the strength of the US dollar index is greatly affected by the interest rate adjustment. In the past, the higher the deposit interest rate of a country's currency, the more it could attract international funds for arbitrage, thus strengthening the exchange rate. However, in recent years, after the surge of technology stocks in the US stock market, the rise in interest rates has adversely affected the overall performance of the stock market, leading to the remittance of international funds to countries that have adopted tight monetary policies, and the exchange rate has weakened accordingly. The trend of interest rate depends on the above-mentioned overall economic factors, such as inflation rate, money supply growth rate, economic growth rate and central bank policy. Therefore, the market's expectation of the future US interest rate level will affect the price of the US dollar index.

3. Stock market performance

If a country's stock market performs well, it will attract international capital investment and push the exchange rate up. The masterpiece is the new economic prosperity of American stocks. The surprisingly high return on investment has made high-tech stocks become the world's super gold-sucking machines, and the US stock market has also launched a bull market.

4. The relative strength of other major currencies, the euro.

After the introduction of the euro, the German mark, French franc, Italian lira, dutch gulden and Belgian franc merged into one, and the euro became the most important weighted currency, accounting for 57.6% of the total dollar index, which had a great influence, with the weight concentrated on the euro, Japanese yen and British pound. Therefore, the trend of the European Central Bank's monetary policy and the economic performance of the euro zone are indispensable factors to observe the strength of the US dollar index.

(3) Factors affecting the US dollar

Basic factors affecting the dollar

Federal Reserve Bank (Fed): The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, referred to as the Federal Reserve, formulates monetary policy completely independently from the Central Bank of the United States to ensure maximum inflation-free economic growth. The main policy indicators of the Federal Reserve include: open market operation, discount rate and federal funds rate.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): The Federal Open Market Committee is mainly responsible for formulating monetary policy, including making eight announcements on key interest rate adjustments every year. FOMC*** has 65,438+02 members, namely, 7 government officials, the governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and 4 members elected from other governors of 65,438+065,438+0 local federal reserve banks for a term of one year.

Interest rate: the interest rate, that is, the federal funds rate, is the most important interest rate indicator, and it is also the overnight lending rate for mutual loans between savings institutions. When the Fed wants to send a clear monetary policy signal to the market, it will announce a new interest rate level. Every such announcement will cause great turmoil in the stock, bond and currency markets.

Discount rate: the discount rate is the interest rate charged by the Federal Reserve when commercial banks apply for loans due to emergencies such as reserves. Although this is a symbolic interest rate indicator, its change will also express a strong policy signal. The discount rate is usually lower than the federal funds rate.

30-year treasury bonds: 30-year treasury bonds, also known as long-term bonds, are the most important indicators to measure inflation in the market. Many times, the market measures the level of bonds by their yields rather than prices. Like all creditor's rights, 30-year treasury bonds are negatively correlated with prices. There is no clear relationship between the exchange rate of long-term bonds and the US dollar, but there is generally the following relationship: because inflation leads to a decline in bond prices, that is, an increase in yield, the US dollar may be under pressure. These considerations may be caused by some economic data.

However, with the implementation of the US Treasury's plan of "borrowing new debts to repay old debts", the circulation of 30-year bonds began to shrink, and then the position of 30-year bonds as a benchmark began to give way to 10-year bonds.

According to the different stages of the economic cycle, some economic indicators have different effects on the US dollar: when inflation does not become a threat to the economy, strong economic indicators will support the US dollar exchange rate; When the threat of inflation to the economy is obvious, strong economic indicators will suppress the exchange rate of the US dollar, and one of the means is to sell bonds.

As the benchmark of asset level, long-term bonds are usually affected by global capital flows. Financial or political turmoil in emerging markets will push up dollar assets. At this time, dollar assets as a hedging tool will indirectly push up the dollar exchange rate.

3-month Eurodollar deposit: 3-month Eurodollar deposit. Eurodollar refers to dollar deposits in foreign banks in the United States. For example, the yen deposits of Japanese and foreign banks are called "European yen". This difference in deposit interest rates can be used as a valuable benchmark for evaluating foreign exchange interest rates. Take USD/JPY as an example. When the positive difference between Eurodollar and Euroyen deposits is large, the USD/JPY exchange rate is more likely to be supported.

10-year treasury bonds: 10-year short-term treasury bonds. When comparing the yields of similar bonds between countries, we usually use 10-year short-term treasury bonds. The yield difference between bonds will affect the exchange rate. If the return on US dollar assets is high, the US dollar exchange rate will be pushed up.

Ministry of Finance: Ministry of Finance. The U.S. Treasury Department is responsible for issuing government bonds and making budgets. The Ministry of Finance has no say in monetary policy, but its comments on the US dollar may have a greater impact on the exchange rate of the US dollar.

Economic data: Economic data. Among the economic data released by the United States, the most important ones include: labor force report (salary level, unemployment rate and average hourly wage), CPI (consumer price index), PPI, GDP (gross domestic product), international trade level, industrial production, housing starts, housing permits and consumer confidence.

Stock market: the stock market. The three major stock indexes are: Dow and S & amp；; Standard & Poor's 500 Index and Nasdaq Nasdaq Index. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has the greatest impact on the US dollar exchange rate. Since the mid-1990s, there has been a great positive correlation between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the US dollar exchange rate (because foreign investors buy American assets). The three main factors that affect the Dow Jones Industrial Average are: 1) company income, including expected income and actual income; 2) Expectation of interest rate level; 3) Global political and economic situation.

Cross exchange rate effect: cross exchange rate effect. The rise and fall of the cross will also affect the exchange rate of the US dollar.

Federal funds rate futures contract: Federal funds rate futures contract. This contract value shows the market's expectation of the federal funds rate (related to the contract expiration date) and is the most direct measure of the Fed's policy.

3-month euro-dollar futures contract: 3-month euro-dollar futures contract. Like the federal funds rate futures contract, the three-month Eurodollar futures contract will also have an impact on the three-month Eurodollar deposit. For example, the spread between the three-month Eurodollar futures contract and the three-month Euroyen futures contract is the basic change that determines the future trend of USD/JPY.

The main factors affecting the world gold price

Before the 1970s, the price of gold was basically determined by governments or central banks of various countries, and the international price of gold was relatively stable. In the early 1970s, the price of gold was no longer directly linked to the US dollar, and the price of gold gradually became market-oriented, and the factors affecting the price change of gold increased day by day. Specifically, it can be divided into the following aspects:

I supply factors:

Supply factors mainly include:

1, gold stocks on the ground

At present, there are about 137400 tons of gold in the world, and the stock of gold on the ground is still growing at a rate of about 2% every year.

2. Annual supply and demand

The annual supply and demand of gold is about 4,200 tons, and the newly produced gold accounts for 62% of the annual supply.

3. New gold mining costs

The average total cost of gold mining is slightly less than $260 per ounce. Due to the development of mining technology, the cost of gold development has been declining in the past 20 years.

4. Political, military and economic changes in gold-producing countries.

Any political and military turmoil in these countries will undoubtedly directly affect the gold production of this country, and then affect the world gold supply.

5. The central bank sells gold.

The central bank is the largest gold holder in the world. 1969 The official gold reserve was 36,458 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the total surface gold stock at that time. By 1998, the official gold reserve is about 34,000 tons, accounting for 24. 1% of the total mined gold stock. According to the current production capacity, this is equivalent to the world gold mineral output 13. Because the main use of gold has gradually changed from an important reserve asset to a metal raw material for jewelry production, either to improve the balance of payments or to curb the international gold price, the central bank's gold reserves have declined greatly in absolute and relative quantities in the past 30 years, and the decline in quantity mainly depends on the sale of gold reserves in the gold market. For example, the large-scale selling by the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the International Monetary Fund to reduce gold reserves has become the main reason for the recent decline in gold prices in the international gold market.

Second, the demand factors:

The demand for gold is directly related to its use.

1, changes in actual demand for gold (jewelry industry, industry, etc. ).

Generally speaking, the development speed of the world economy determines the total demand for gold. For example, in the field of microelectronics, gold is increasingly used as a protective layer; In the fields of medicine, building decoration and so on, although the progress of science and technology makes gold substitutes appear constantly, the demand for gold is still on the rise because of its special metal properties.

In some areas, local factors have a great influence on the demand for gold. For example, due to the financial crisis, India and Southeast Asian countries, which have always had a great demand for gold jewelry, have greatly reduced their gold imports since 1997. According to the data of the World Gold Council, the demand for gold in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea decreased by 7 1%, 28%, 10% and 9% respectively.

2. The need for hedging.

Gold reserves have always been regarded by the central bank as an important means to prevent domestic inflation and regulate the market. For ordinary investors, investing in gold is mainly for the purpose of preserving value under inflation. During the economic downturn, due to the insurance of gold relative to monetary assets, the demand for gold increased and the price of gold rose. For example, in the three dollar crises after World War II, due to the serious balance of payments deficit in the United States, the dollar held by various countries increased greatly, the market's confidence in the value of the dollar was shaken, and investors snapped up gold in large quantities, which directly led to the bankruptcy of the Bretton Woods system. The depreciation of 1987 dollars, the increase of the deficit in the United States and the instability in the Middle East also contributed to the sharp rise in international gold prices.

3. Speculative demand.

According to the international and domestic situation, speculators use the fluctuation of gold price in the gold market and the trading system in the gold futures market to "short" or "replenish" gold in large quantities, artificially creating the illusion of gold demand. In the gold market, almost every plunge is related to hedge fund companies borrowing short-term gold to sell in the spot gold market and establishing a large number of short positions on the COMEX gold futures exchange. When the price of gold fell to a 20-year low of 1999 in July, the data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that COMEX's speculative short position was close to 9 million ounces (nearly 300 tons). When a large number of stop-loss selling was triggered, the price of gold fell, and the fund company took the opportunity to make up the position and make a profit. When the gold price rebounded slightly, the hedging forward selling from manufacturers suppressed the further rise of the gold price, and at the same time gave the fund company a new opportunity to re-establish short positions, forming a downward pattern of the gold price at that time.

Third, other factors:

1, the impact of the US dollar exchange rate.

The exchange rate of US dollar is also one of the important factors that affect the fluctuation of gold price. Generally, when the dollar in the gold market rises, the price of gold will fall; When the dollar fell, the price of gold rose. A strong dollar generally means that the domestic economic situation in the United States is good, domestic stocks and bonds in the United States will be sought after by investors, and the function of gold as a means of value storage will be weakened; The decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar is often related to inflation and the stock market downturn, and the value-preserving function of gold is once again reflected. This is because the depreciation of the dollar is often related to inflation, and the high value of gold will often stimulate the preservation of gold and the increase of speculative demand in the case of the depreciation of the dollar and the intensification of inflation. In August of 197 1 and February of 1973, the US government announced the depreciation of the US dollar twice. Influenced by the sharp drop in the exchange rate of the US dollar and inflation, the price of gold rose to the highest level in history at the beginning of 1980, exceeding $800 per ounce. Looking back on the history of the past 20 years, if the dollar strengthens against other western currencies, the price of gold in the international market will fall. If the dollar depreciates slightly, the price of gold will rise gradually.

2. The monetary policies of various countries are closely related to the international gold price.

When a country adopts a loose monetary policy, due to the reduction of interest rates, the country's money supply increases, which increases the possibility of inflation and will lead to an increase in the price of gold. For example, the low interest rate policy in the United States in the 1960 s led to the outflow of domestic funds and a large number of dollars flowed into Europe and Japan. As the net dollar position held by countries increased, they began to worry about the value of the dollar, so they began to sell dollars in the international market and snap up gold, which eventually led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. However, after 1979, the influence of interest rate factors on gold price is weakening day by day.

For example, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 1 1 times this year, but it did not have a great impact on the gold market. Only in the "9. 1 1" incident did the gold market benefit.

3. The influence of inflation on the price of gold.

In this regard, long-term and short-term analysis is needed, and it depends on the degree of inflation in the short term. In the long run, if the annual inflation rate changes within the normal range, it will have little impact on the fluctuation of gold prices; Only in a short period of time, the price rises sharply, causing people to panic, and the purchasing power of monetary units declines, will the price of gold rise sharply. Although the world has entered the era of low inflation since 1990s, the use of gold as a symbol of currency stability is shrinking. Moreover, as a long-term investment tool, gold has a lower yield than bonds, stocks and other securities. But in the long run, gold is still an important means to deal with inflation.

4. The influence of international trade, finance and foreign debt deficit on gold price.

Debt is a worldwide problem, not just a unique phenomenon in developing countries. In the debt chain, not only the debtor countries can't repay their debts, which leads to economic stagnation, but also the economic stagnation further aggravates the vicious circle of debt. Even creditor countries are in danger of financial collapse because of the breakdown of relations with debtor countries. At this time, in order to maintain their own economy from harm, countries will reserve a large amount of gold, which has caused the price of gold to rise in the market.

5. International political turmoil, war, etc.

Major international political and war events will affect the price of gold. The government pays for the war or in order to maintain domestic economic stability, a large number of investors turn to gold to invest, which will expand the demand for gold and stimulate the price of gold to rise. For example, World War II, the Vietnam War, 1976 coup in Thailand, and 1986 Iran-contra incident all caused the price of gold to rise to varying degrees. For example, the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in September this year caused the price of gold to soar to nearly $300 this year.

6. The influence of the stock market on the price of gold.

Generally speaking, the stock market falls and the price of gold rises. This mainly reflects investors' expectations of economic development prospects. If everyone is generally optimistic about the economic prospects, a lot of money will flow to the stock market, and the investment enthusiasm in the stock market will be high, and the price of gold will fall.

In addition to the above-mentioned factors affecting the price of gold, the intervention activities of international financial organizations and the policies and regulations of central financial institutions in China and the region will also have a significant impact on the changes in the world price of gold.

The trend of gold prices in the past 30 years and the sharp drop in recent years can be mainly understood from the following aspects:

The first is the loss of the dominant position of gold in the monetary system. In the 1970s, with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, gold was basically monetized, and its commodity attributes were gradually enhanced. In April 2000, the Swiss referendum abolished the gold standard, and the degree of non-monetization of gold further deepened. The new round of decline in the price of gold is a further decline in the monetary attribute of gold and a further enhancement of the commodity attribute. Therefore, the decline of gold and monetary function is the background of the international gold price falling for 30 years.

Secondly, the major western economic powers sell gold, resulting in a relatively abundant supply of gold. Because the long-term value of gold reserves in European countries is underestimated, for example, the gold purchased by 1970 is only about $35 per ounce, so it is an inevitable choice to sell gold for foreign exchange and improve the value and quality of financial assets in various countries. Switzerland is ready to sell about 1300 tons of gold, accounting for about half of its gold reserves. Britain is also preparing to sell about 4 15 tons of gold, equivalent to 58% of its gold reserves; The International Monetary Fund also plans to realize 10% of its gold reserves.

Third, since the 1990s, the economies of the United States and western countries have generally maintained a good development trend, with little inflationary pressure and weak demand for investment in gold preservation, making it difficult to stimulate the price of gold to rise.

In addition, with the development of electronic technology, the role of gold in international settlement has declined, and the reserve cost is the highest. The birth of the euro also changed the international reserve structure of the euro zone, and the European Central Bank explicitly announced that it would reduce the gold reserve to about 15%. All these have affected the role and demand of gold, and the decline of gold price is inevitable.