First, the "Eleventh Five-Year" development review
General situation of photovoltaic industry in China
1. The output of solar cells continues to increase, and the proportion of products exported is significant.
During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the output of solar cells in China developed rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of over 100%. From 2007 to 2065438+00, the output of solar cells ranked first in the world for four consecutive years. The output of solar cells in 20 10 year is about 10GW, which exceeds 50% of the global total output. More than 90% of solar cell products in China are exported, and the export value in 20 10 reached 20.2 billion US dollars.
2. The scale of polysilicon industry has expanded rapidly, and key production technologies have been mastered.
During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the annual output of polysilicon put into production in China increased from 200 tons to 45,000 tons, and the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials in photovoltaic industry increased from almost zero to about 50%, forming an output value scale of tens of billions of yuan. Domestic polysilicon enterprises have mastered the key technologies to improve Siemens 1000 ton scale production, the stability of scale production has been gradually improved, the comprehensive utilization level of by-products has been steadily improved, and the energy consumption index of some enterprises is close to the international advanced level.
3. The crystalline silicon battery is dominant, and the product quality is steadily improved.
At the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan, China's crystalline silicon cells accounted for more than 95% of the total output of solar cells. The quality of solar cell products is improving year by year, especially in the conversion efficiency. The performance of key enterprises has grown rapidly. The conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon solar cells reaches 17- 19%, that of polycrystalline silicon solar cells reaches 15- 17%, and that of new batteries such as thin films reaches about 8- 10%.
4. Breakthroughs have been made in production equipment, and the level of localization has been continuously improved.
Domestic single crystal furnace, polycrystalline silicon ingot furnace, square knife and other equipment have approached or reached the international advanced level, occupying a large domestic market share. In addition to automatic printing machine and cutting equipment, the special equipment for crystalline silicon solar cells is basically localized and has the "turnkey" ability of production line. Silicon-based thin film battery production equipment has initially formed a small-scale full-line production capacity. In 20 10, the sales revenue of special photovoltaic manufacturing equipment in China exceeded 4 billion yuan, and that in export delivery value reached 1 100 million yuan.
5. The domestic photovoltaic market started gradually, and the installed capacity increased rapidly.
China has successively promulgated the Interim Measures for the Administration of Financial Subsidies for the Application of Solar Photovoltaic Buildings and the Notice on the Implementation of Golden Sun Demonstration Project, and successively launched two batches of 290MW photovoltaic power station concession bidding projects. By the end of 20 10, China's cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 800MW, and the newly installed capacity reached 500MW that year, up by 166% year-on-year.
Second, the situation facing the Twelfth Five-Year Plan
At present, all major developed countries strongly support the development of photovoltaic industry from a strategic perspective. For example, Germany and Spain have enacted on-grid tariff laws to support solar photovoltaic power generation, while the United States and Japan continue to promote the application market through the "solar roof" program. International capital is also generally optimistic about the photovoltaic industry: on the one hand, many large enterprises in the photovoltaic industry have announced new investment plans and continuously expanded their production scale; On the other hand, semiconductor companies, display companies and other fields are also or will soon have various market capitals entering the photovoltaic industry.
From the strategic path of China's future social and economic development, developing solar photovoltaic industry is an important direction for China to ensure energy supply, build a low-carbon society, promote economic restructuring and cultivate strategic emerging industries. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's photovoltaic industry will continue to be in a stage of rapid development, and it will also face enormous opportunities and severe challenges.
(A) China's photovoltaic industry faces broad development space.
The shortage of conventional energy supply in the world is becoming more and more serious. Take oil as an example. By the end of 2009, the world's proven reserves were only available for exploitation for 45.7 years. At the same time, the large-scale development and utilization of fossil energy has become one of the main reasons for the pollution of natural environment and the deterioration of human living environment. Finding new energy and developing social economy has become a hot issue in the world. Among all kinds of new energy sources, solar photovoltaic power generation has the advantages of pollution-free, sustainability, large quantity, wide distribution and various forms of utilization, and has been highly valued by all countries in the world. China's photovoltaic industry has a good development foundation in manufacturing level, industrial system and technology research and development, and the domestic and international market prospects are generally good. As long as we seize the development opportunity and accelerate the transformation and upgrading, we will certainly usher in a broader development space in the later period.
(B) Photovoltaic industry, policies and markets need to strengthen interaction.
From a global perspective, the recent growth momentum of solar cell demand mainly comes from the policy support and price subsidies of governments to the photovoltaic industry. Compared with foreign developed countries, China's government's policy system for supporting photovoltaic applications is still not perfect: the planning objectives that have been introduced lag far behind the development of the industry and need to be adjusted in time; The electricity price policy supporting the Renewable Energy Law has not yet been implemented; Market promotion policies are still insufficient, and there is no long-term mechanism to support the sustainable development of photovoltaic power generation. At present, more than 90% of solar cells produced in China are exported to overseas markets. Industrial development is greatly affected by the financial crisis and changes in overseas markets, and its dependence on foreign countries is too high, which is not conducive to sustained and healthy development.
(C) Industrial development is facing severe challenges from international trade protection
In recent years, there have been many trade disputes between Europe and the United States against China's photovoltaic industry, and similar disputes will follow. The main reasons are as follows: First, the cost advantage of solar cells in China is obvious, and the international market share is expanding, which puts pressure on foreign products; Second, the industry is developing in disorder, and the product quality and comprehensive utilization of environmental protection of individual small and medium-sized enterprises with follow-up investment are worrying; Third, the domestic photovoltaic market has not been launched on a large scale, and the products are mainly exported, which is easy to cause dumping doubts; Fourth, China's product standard system is not perfect, the self-discipline ability of enterprises is insufficient, and there are problems such as uneven product quality level.
(d) The rapid development of new processes and technologies has intensified international competition.
The technological development of global photovoltaic industry is changing with each passing day: the conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon batteries is increased by one percentage point every year; The technical level of thin-film batteries has been continuously improved; Emerging technologies such as nano-material batteries have developed rapidly; Solar cell production and testing equipment is constantly upgrading. However, there is still a big gap in domestic photovoltaic industry in many aspects, and the international competitive pressure is escalating: the key technology of polysilicon still lags behind the international advanced level, the high-end equipment for producing crystalline silicon batteries still needs to be imported, and the technical equipment level of thin-film batteries is obviously backward.
Three. The Main Tasks of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan
(1) Promote technological progress and realize transformation and upgrading.
Develop clean, safe, low energy consumption, high purity and large-scale polysilicon production technology, improve the comprehensive utilization rate of by-products in the production process, and narrow the gap with the international production level. Realize the innovative development of solar cell production technology, encourage large-scale production, and improve the core competitiveness of photovoltaic industry. Promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry. Pay close attention to the technical progress of clean and environmentally friendly new photovoltaic cells and materials, and strengthen technical research and development.
(2) Improve the R&D and application level of domestic equipment and integration technology.
With the goal of improving product quality, photoelectric conversion efficiency and reducing energy consumption, we will support the research and development and industrialization of key production equipment and power generation application equipment such as polysilicon, silicon ingot wafers, crystalline silicon batteries and components, and thin-film batteries, and strengthen the application of domestic equipment. Promote equipment enterprises and photovoltaic products enterprises to strengthen technical cooperation and exchanges.
(3) Improve the performance of solar cells and continuously reduce the product cost.
Vigorously support the research and development and industrialization of crystalline silicon solar cells with low cost, high conversion efficiency and long life, reduce the cost of battery products and the final power generation cost, and strive to achieve cheap Internet access as soon as possible. Promote the technological progress and industrialization process of silicon-based thin films, copper indium gallium tin thin films and other batteries, and improve the conversion efficiency of thin film batteries.
(4) Promote the application of photovoltaic products and expand the photovoltaic power generation market.
Actively promote the formulation and implementation of the on-grid tariff policy, strengthen the research and development and application of photovoltaic products in agriculture, transportation, construction and other industries, support the establishment of a number of distributed photovoltaic power stations, off-grid application systems, BIPV systems and small photovoltaic systems, encourage the construction and application of large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected power stations, and promote the improvement of technical systems and management systems that adapt to the characteristics of photovoltaic power generation.
(V) Improve the construction of supporting service system for photovoltaic industry.
Establish and improve standards, patents, testing, certification and other supporting service systems, strengthen supervision and services in the photovoltaic industry, and support industry self-discipline and cooperation. Actively participate in the formulation of international standards, establish and improve the photovoltaic national/industry standard system that conforms to China's national conditions, including polysilicon materials, battery/module product standards, photovoltaic production equipment standards and photovoltaic system acceptance standards. Accelerate the construction of public service platforms such as domestic certification and testing.
Four. The Development Focus of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan
(1) high purity polysilicon
Support low energy consumption and low cost solar-grade polysilicon production technology. On the existing basis, through further research, system improvement and perfection, a stable production process of electronic grade polysilicon has been developed, and a thousand-ton electronic grade polysilicon production line has been established. Breakthrough the devices and technologies such as high-efficiency and energy-saving large-scale purification, high-efficiency hydrogen recovery and purification, high-efficiency chemical vapor deposition, and comprehensive utilization of polysilicon by-products, and build a 10,000-ton high-purity polysilicon production line with comprehensive energy consumption lower than 65,438 0.40 degrees/kg.
(2) Silicon wafers
Support the high-efficiency, low-cost and low-energy production technology of silicon, break through the wafer slicing technology and improve the quality of silicon wafers.
(3) crystalline silicon battery
Vigorously develop the research and development and industrialization of crystalline silicon battery technology with high conversion rate (battery conversion efficiency is above 265,438+0%) and long life. Focus on the research and application of low reflectivity suede preparation technology, laser selective emitter technology and subsequent electrode alignment technology, plasma passivation technology, low temperature electrode technology and full back junction technology. Focus on the key technologies of new solar cells such as thin film silicon/crystalline silicon heterojunction.
(4) Thin film battery
Focus on the development of amorphous and microcrystalline laminated and multi-junction thin film batteries. Reduce the photoinduced attenuation of thin-film batteries, encourage enterprises to develop large-area high-efficiency silicon thin-film batteries of more than 5.5 generations, and develop the continuous roll-to-roll production process of flexible silicon-based thin-film solar cells. Follow up the industrialization process of copper indium gallium selenide and organic thin film batteries in time, and develop and master the key technologies of low-cost non-vacuum copper indium gallium tin thin film batteries, magnetron sputtering batteries, vacuum evaporation batteries and large-scale manufacturing.
(5) Efficient concentrating solar cell
Focus on the development of industrial production technology of high concentration composite solar cells, with the concentration multiple reaching more than 500 times. The efficiency of the industrially produced cells is over 35% under the condition of non-concentration, over 40% under the condition of concentration, and the conversion efficiency of the substrate-stripped high concentration cells is over 25% under the condition of non-concentration. Breakthrough the high-power concentrating solar cell substrate glass technology, high-efficiency high-power concentrating composite solar cell technology, high-power concentrating cell test analysis and stability control technology, etc. , and timely development of Fresnel and parabolic mirror and other supporting equipment.
(6) BIPV components
Focus on the development of BIPV (Building Integrated Photovoltaic) module production technology, including building materials that can be directly combined with buildings, double-glass BIPV modules applied to factory roofs, agricultural greenhouses and curtain walls, and insulating glass modules. In order to solve the problems of light transmission and heat insulation of BIPV module, a beautiful and practical BIPV module which can be directly used as building materials and components is designed by combining aesthetic principles. Expand the application scope of BAPV module.
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