According to the law passed by the US Congress 1988, the Ministry of Finance is required to submit two monetary reports every year to reflect the foreign exchange operations of major trading partners such as China.
In 2007, US Treasury Secretary Henry Merritt Paulson published a semi-annual report on the exchange rate on 13 local time, which did not list China as a currency manipulator, which made some US lawmakers quite disappointed. However, Paulson once again called on the China administration to allow the RMB to appreciate at a faster rate. The Bush administration listed China as a currency manipulator, and the result was nothing more than formal negotiations between the US Treasury and the China administration.
In 2009, American Heritage Foundation economist Sass said that the RMB exchange rate issue had been put back on the agenda, and the US Treasury would not list China as a currency manipulator this time. But Washington's call for "managing" China's trade is getting louder and louder. A powerful trade protection movement against China may break out at any time, but it is still brewing.
From Sass' analysis, it can be seen that the RMB exchange rate issue is actually just an excuse for the US trade protection movement. At the G20 Pittsburgh Summit, the United States put forward the theory that balancing the world economy should be combined with urging RMB to appreciate, and publicly urged RMB to appreciate. At that time, President Hu Jintao said that fundamentally speaking, the root of the imbalance is the serious imbalance in the development of the North and the South. Many economists also believe that it is time to discuss how to return to the "moderate" imbalance of trade between countries and global balance, instead of demanding a trade balance between each country.
The US Treasury Department threatened to list China as a currency manipulator, and once it was included in the United States, it could impose a 27.5% tariff on all China's exports, forcing you to appreciate the exchange rate. This is what Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province Province have done. Yen appreciation 100%. What about RMB? According to the investigation of the Ministry of Commerce, as long as the RMB appreciates by 3% to 5%, the export profit of China's leisure industry will be zero, and a large number of enterprises will start business if it exceeds 5%.
Exchange rate adjustment belongs to a country's sovereignty, but exchange rate manipulation is explicitly prohibited by IMF and WTO. Therefore, the definition of exchange rate manipulation is related to a country's sovereignty on the one hand, and the exchange rate issue is also a financial issue, not a trade issue, so it should be under the jurisdiction of the International Monetary Fund. On June 65438+1October 65438+June 2009, the US Treasury did not list China as a currency manipulator again, which affirmed the important role of China.
If it is listed as a currency manipulator, it is a very serious accusation, which means that the United States will take all-round measures to increase the cost of trade with China, which is unbearable pressure for both China and the United States. However, the reason why the United States has repeatedly mentioned the word currency manipulator and legally wants to do so is mainly because in my eyes, currency manipulator is actually a nuclear weapon. Therefore, nuclear weapons are not easy to use, but they must be released, that is, they cannot return to Nanshan immediately. In this way, for the United States, he can enter or retreat. He can raise this weapon at any time to suppress other countries that he thinks manipulate the exchange rate, but it is also possible to use it to make a slight concession and then strike a balance in the negotiations. Therefore, I think it is particularly beneficial for the United States to possess this weapon.