First, the aggregate situation

1. Economic growth dropped significantly

In the first half of the year, the gross domestic product was 13,61.9 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year at comparable prices, down 1.8 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among them, the added value of the primary industry was 1.18 trillion yuan, up by 3.5% and down by .5 percentage point; The added value of the secondary industry was 6,741.9 billion yuan, up by 11.3% and down by 2.4 percentage points. The added value of the tertiary industry was 5.14 trillion yuan, up by 1.5% and down by 1.6 percentage points.

the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 16.3% year-on-year, down by 2.2 percentage points over the same period of last year. In the second quarter, it increased by 15.9%. In terms of types, the added value of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises increased by 12.7%, collective enterprises by 1.5%, joint-stock enterprises by 18.8%, and foreign-invested enterprises from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan by 14.3%. Heavy industry grew by 17.3% and light industry by 13.8%. The connection between production and marketing is good, and the product sales rate is 97.7%, up .2 percentage points year-on-year.

2. The increase of consumer prices declined

In the first half of the year, the general level of consumer prices rose by 7.9%, .2 percentage points lower than that in January-May. Among them, cities rose by 7.6% and rural areas rose by 8.6%. Regardless of the classification, food prices rose by 2.4%, driving the overall price level to rise by 6.64 percentage points; The housing price rose by 6.9%, driving the overall price level to rise by 1.2 percentage points; The prices of other commodities have gone up and down.

3. The employment target was well achieved

In the first half of the year, 6.4 million new jobs were created in cities and towns nationwide, accounting for 64% of the annual target; 2.82 million laid-off workers were re-employed, achieving 56% of the annual target; 77, people with employment difficulties were employed, achieving 77% of the annual target. In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 865 yuan, up 14.4% year-on-year, and the real increase was 6.3% after deducting the price factor; The per capita cash income of rural residents was 2,528 yuan, up by 19.8%. After deducting the price factor, the real increase was 1.3%.

4. Increase in national foreign exchange reserves

At the end of June p>28, the balance of national foreign exchange reserves was US$ 1,88.8 billion, up 35.73% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, it increased by $28.6 billion, an increase of $14.3 billion. At the end of June, the RMB exchange rate was 6.8591 yuan to the dollar, an appreciation of 6.99% over the end of last year, and the real effective exchange rate appreciated by 3.75%.

ii. factors and structure

1. the investment structure of fixed assets has improved, and urban and rural consumption has increased simultaneously

in the first half of the year, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society was 6,84.2 billion yuan, up 26.3% year-on-year, .4 percentage points faster than the same period of last year. Among them, urban areas were 5,843.6 billion yuan, an increase of 26.8%; 996.6 billion yuan in rural areas, an increase of 23.2%. In urban investment, the investment in the three industries increased by 69.5%, 26.6% and 26.2% respectively, and the primary industry accelerated by 32 percentage points year-on-year; Investment in the central and western regions increased by 22.4%, 35.3% and 28.6% respectively, and the growth rate in the central and western regions was significantly faster than that in the eastern region.

the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 5,14.3 billion yuan, up 21.4% year-on-year, 6. percentage points faster than the same period of last year; After deducting the price factor, the actual increase was 13.9%. Among them, the urban area was 3,481.9 billion yuan, up by 22.1%, and the county and below was 1,622.4 billion yuan, up by 2.%. Wholesale and retail industry was 4,36.8 billion yuan, and accommodation and catering industry was 72.7 billion yuan, up by 21.3% and 24.% respectively.

2. The growth rate of exports has slowed down, and foreign direct investment has grown rapidly

In the first half of the year, the total import and export volume was US$ 1,234.2 billion, up 25.7% year-on-year, 2.4 percentage points faster than the same period of last year. Among them, exports were 666.6 billion US dollars, up by 21.9%, down by 5.7 percentage points; Imports reached US$ 567.6 billion, an increase of 3.6% and an acceleration of 12.4 percentage points. The trade surplus was $99 billion, a year-on-year decrease of $13.2 billion. In the first half of the year, the actual amount of foreign capital used was US$ 52.4 billion, an increase of 45.6%, 33.4 percentage points faster than the same period of the previous year.

3. The growth of fiscal revenue accelerated, and the growth of corporate profits and personal income slowed down

From January to May, the national fiscal revenue reached 29.644 million yuan, up 33.8% over the same period of last year, and the growth rate accelerated by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year. The fastest growth was in tariffs and corporate income tax. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 1,94.4 billion yuan, up 2.9% year-on-year, down 21.2 percentage points from the same period of last year. The five most profitable industries are: oil and gas mining, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, transportation equipment manufacturing, chemical raw materials and chemicals manufacturing, coal mining and washing.

in the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 8,65 yuan, up by 14.4% year-on-year, with a real increase of 6.3% after deducting the price factor; The per capita cash income of rural residents was 2,528 yuan, up by 19.8%. After deducting the price factor, the real increase was 1.3%.

4. Money supply growth slows down, and local and foreign currency deposits and loans change reversely

At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 44.31 trillion yuan, up 17.37% year-on-year, with an increase of .63 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year and .7 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month; The balance of narrow money (M1) was 15.48 trillion yuan, up 14.19% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 6.86 and 3.74 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year and last month respectively. The market currency in circulation (M) was 3.2 trillion yuan, up 12.28% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the net cash withdrawal was 19.4 billion yuan, an increase of 2 million yuan over the same period of last year.

at the end of June, the balance of local and foreign currency deposits of financial institutions was 45.2 trillion yuan, up 17.84% year-on-year. Among them, the balance of RMB deposits was 43.9 trillion yuan, up 18.85% year-on-year, .84 percentage points lower than the end of last month. The balance of foreign exchange deposits was US$ 163.8 billion, down by 1.75% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, foreign exchange deposits increased by US$ 3 billion, down by US$ 2.3 billion year-on-year.

at the end of June, the balance of local and foreign currency loans of financial institutions was 3.51 trillion yuan, up 15.17% year-on-year. The balance of RMB loans was 28.62 trillion yuan, up 14.12% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.98 and .74 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year and last month respectively. The balance of foreign exchange loans was US$ 275.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.63%. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 2,452.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 89.9 billion yuan. Foreign exchange loans increased by $55.3 billion, an increase of $38.8 billion year-on-year.

5. The interest rate of the inter-bank market increased slightly.

In June, RMB transactions in the inter-bank market totaled 8.31 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 415.3 billion yuan, up 55.9% year-on-year, with an extra turnover of 148.9 billion yuan.

in June, the monthly weighted average interest rate of interbank lending in the interbank market was 3.7%, .24 percentage points higher than last month and .68 percentage points higher than the same period last year; The monthly weighted average interest rate of pledged bond repurchase was 3.8%, .2 percentage points higher than last month and .61 percentage points higher than the same period last year. At the end of June, the excess reserve ratio of all financial institutions was 1.95%, .44 percentage points higher than the end of last month and 1.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

6. Global stock markets generally fell, with A shares falling the most in the world

Affected by the global economic downturn and persistently high oil prices, global stock markets generally fell, and US stocks hit a two-year low. A-shares are in a downward relay. In the second quarter, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,746 points, with a single quarter decline of 2%. Since Vietnam's stock market has rebounded by 3%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange index has fallen the most since 6 points.

The fundamental factors that affect the downward trend of A-shares are mainly the fear of domestic economic downturn and the continuous rise of CPI, and their linkage with the international capital market is getting stronger and stronger. Domestic institutions are still bearish on A-shares, and the pressure of fund redemption has increased greatly, which in turn has further put pressure on the trend of A-shares.

Third, the policy effect

1. Judging the overall economic situation

This year has been eventful. After the snowstorm in the south, an earthquake of magnitude 8 occurred in Sichuan. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has been full of twists and turns, the international financial turmoil has intensified, global inflation has risen and growth has slowed down. Under this circumstance, China's economic operation is basically stable. In the first half of the year, GDP increased by 1.4% and CPI increased by 7.9%, showing a trend of obvious decline in economic growth and high inflation, which is roughly in line with people's predictions.

the slowdown in economic growth indicates that China's economic operation has entered the downward range of this round of growth cycle. However, it is still at a high level, and there is still room for falling back. People pay too much attention to the decline of growth, and the reasons are various. First, if the decline is too large, many contradictions and problems may not be covered up and delayed; Second, the tournament where officials are promoted and the legitimacy and prestige of the government may also be affected; Third, employment difficulties may increase and social stability will be threatened.

in fact, what really deserves people's attention is the further accumulation of economic operation risks. This can also be seen from the changes in some structural factors. First, the rapid growth of imports and the sharp decline in export growth, although in line with the needs and direction of economic adjustment, have increased the pressure of imported inflation. Second, the operation direction of monetary policy and exchange rate policy is good, but it is difficult to reach the designated position for a while, and the situation of excess liquidity remains the same, or even intensifies. Third, the growth of corporate profits has declined, while the growth of personal income has slowed down, while the excessive growth of government income, coupled with the distortion of relative prices, may further decline growth under the condition of high inflation, which is not conducive to structural adjustment.

the impact of the earthquake needs to be analyzed in detail. Economically, the earthquake caused huge losses of people's lives and property, estimated at about one trillion yuan, and some of them could not even be remedied, but what was lost was the stock assets, while the process of disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction caused and increased new social demands, which drove the growth of traffic. In social life, the earthquake is also a combination of danger and opportunity. Dealing with and grasping it well is conducive to promoting social integration. Otherwise, it may be another tuition fee.

2. Pay attention to global inflation and international financial turmoil

Since the beginning of this year, the international economic situation has been complicated and changeable, with the basic trend of slowing economic growth and accelerating inflation. The economic growth of the euro zone reached .8% in the first quarter and will further shrink in the second quarter. The CPI has reached 3.7% and may exceed 4% this summer, which is twice the inflation control target of the European Central Bank. The inflation rate in Britain is close to 4% and may reach 5% later. The economic growth rate of the United States was .6% in the first quarter, and it is expected to be 1-1.6% for the whole year. In June, the consumer price index rose by 1.1%, the largest increase since September 25 and the second largest increase in 26 years. It is expected that the annual inflation rate will reach 3.8%-4.2%. The economic growth rate of many emerging economies has declined to varying degrees, while the inflation rates in Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia have reached double digits, and the inflation rate in Vietnam has exceeded 25%, forming a global inflation trend.

Many people attribute the rise in inflation to the rise in commodity prices such as oil and grain, and this argument has some truth. In the past four years, the international oil price has risen by 1-2 dollars per barrel every year. Since July last year, the average price of a basket of crude oil under the market supervision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has doubled, from 7 dollars to 14 dollars. This year, it has risen even faster, with an increase of nearly 5 dollars in the first six months, with an increase of more than 4%. In the past three years, international food prices have increased by 181%, food prices have increased by 83%, and international rice prices have soared by 75% in March and April. However, inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon. The main reason for global inflation is that the international monetary policy environment is too loose, especially the excessively loose monetary policy implemented by the United States in response to the subprime mortgage crisis, plus the long-term low interest rate policy implemented by the Bank of Japan. As for some emerging economies, because of different forms of pegging their currencies to the US dollar, when the United States implements loose monetary policy and the US dollar depreciates, it is impossible to tighten its monetary policy. In fact, it is equivalent to the Fed exporting loose monetary policy and inflation. This is the reality of the current international economic operation, not a conspiracy by anyone. Because the current world order is a pattern dominated and prevalent by power, and all countries put their national interests first, and their behavior and policy choices are aimed at maximizing their own interests.

It is closely related to global inflation, and the intensification of international financial turmoil also deserves special attention. Recently, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two major mortgage agencies in the United States, experienced operational crisis. Within a week, the share prices of the two companies fell by 5%, and the total market value evaporated by $46 billion in half a year. As a result, the three major stock indexes in new york fell across the board and a "financial tsunami" occurred in the global market. At the same time, Indymac Bank in the United States closed down due to a large number of bad debts on credit assets including subprime loans, resulting in losses, liquidity difficulties and bank runs, which became the second largest bank failure case in American history. As a result, the subprime mortgage crisis is far from over and has once again become a topic of discussion.

Since the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in September last year, subprime mortgage loan-related financial institutions went bankrupt one after another, and the Federal Reserve entered the interest rate cut cycle, and the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis has been wave after wave. At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, well-known financial institutions such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and UBS successively reported losses and expanded their loss provision, and sought financing from outside. The market liquidity pressure increased sharply. While the Federal Reserve flowed into the market, it joined hands with the European Central Bank to intervene. Some people predict that the subprime mortgage has bottomed out. In March this year, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, was on the verge of bankruptcy, forcing the Federal Reserve to inject capital urgently and cut interest rates by 75 basis points. In April, the financial market turmoil that lasted for several months showed some signs of easing, and some people predicted that the worst period of the subprime mortgage crisis had passed. This time, the impact has made people re-understand the subprime mortgage crisis and its impact. Because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a central role in the American housing finance system and bear the financing or credit guarantee of US$ 12 trillion of ordinary housing, their bankruptcy may be disastrous. Compared with that, the financial turmoil triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis is nothing but a drop in the bucket. Therefore, it is impossible for the U.S. government to from ruin. It is noteworthy that China's holding of US Treasury bonds has reached 56.5 billion US dollars, second only to Japan's (578.7 billion US dollars), and it is the largest creditor of Fannie and Freddie, and the losses are inevitable. Even if the US government provides assistance through issuing more Treasury bonds, it will only reduce some losses.

3. Currency, exchange rate and short-term capital flow

Since the beginning of this year, in the face of rising inflation, the central bank has adopted a tight monetary policy, which has raised the deposit reserve ratio by 2.5 percentage points four times, recovered more than 1.3 trillion yuan in liquidity, and strengthened the control of loans on a quarterly basis. It should be affirmed that the tight policy direction is correct and should be adhered to, and cannot be changed because of the high inflation rate. However, the specific operation can still be discussed. Quantity control is rigid and there is no room for manoeuvre.