1, in fact, we know that our predictions are only a little better than random guesses, which is usually the case, but we still feel that every prediction we make is based, and we will act according to our own predictions. This reminds me of Miao Lei-leye county illusion. We all know that the line segments in the picture are the same length, but at first glance, we still feel that the lengths are different. I am very interested in this analogy, so I specially created a term for our experience: the illusion of effectiveness.
2. Subjective confidence in a judgment is not a reasonable evaluation of the correct probability of this judgment. Self-confidence is a feeling, which can reflect the consistency of cognitive relaxation when dealing with a certain piece of information. It is wise to admit the uncertainty sincerely, although the plot may not be true.
Although professionals can earn considerable wealth from amateurs, few stock speculators have the ability to remain invincible in the stock market year after year. Professional investors, including fund managers, failed in a basic ability test, which is called lasting achievement. The research results of all skills show that the differences of individual achievements are consistent. The logic is simple: if the individual difference in any year is entirely due to luck, then the ranking of investors and funds will change irregularly, and the correlation coefficient between years will be zero. But when it comes to skills, the ranking will be more stable. The persistence of individual differences is a measure, through which we can determine whether a golfer, car salesman, orthodontist or highway toll collector has this skill.
The illusion of skills is not only a personal mistake, but also deeply embedded in the culture of this industry. Many facts that challenge this basic assumption-and thus threaten people's livelihood and self-esteem-are far from being accepted by people, and the human brain has not yet digested these facts. This is especially true for performance statistical research that provides basic ratio information. When this information conflicts with the impression gained from experience, people usually ignore it.
5. cognitive illusions is more stubborn than visual illusion. Although the Miao Lei-leye county illusion tells you that the length of the line segment is the same, it does not change the way you look at the line segment, but changes your behavior.
We know that under any circumstances, when people around us have the same idea as themselves, no matter how absurd the idea is, people can maintain an unshakable belief. If you are in the professional culture of the financial field, then a large part of people in this field will believe that they are very few people who can do what others can't. This idea is not surprising.
7. We all know that it is wise after the event, and financial experts will make a convincing explanation of the events of the day only after reading every evening paper carefully.
8. However, the illusion of effective forecasting has not been affected at all, and people who do forecasting business make full use of this fact. The people who do forecasting business here are not only financial experts, but also commercial and political authorities. Television stations, radio stations and newspapers all have their own expert groups whose job is to comment on recent events and predict the future. Viewers and readers will feel that they have received tailor-made or at least insightful information.
(reading and thinking: I feel noticed by cue. . . )
9. In other words, the predictions made by those who spend time studying a special topic for a living are not as accurate as those made by monkeys who are still frisbees, because monkeys can treat every possibility equally. Even in the field you know best, experts' predictions are not much better than those of non-professionals.
(reading and thinking: this remark is extremely ironic. In hindsight, this is called theory. Indeed, many experts often have illusions about their predictive ability, either the illusion of effect or the illusion of skill. In the next chapter, the author also claims that "expert prediction is not as accurate as simple operation")
10, people with the most knowledge are often unreliable, because people with more knowledge have an infinite illusion of their skills, and then become unrealistic and overconfident.
1 1, the interaction of many different factors and forces led to this result, including pure luck, and this result often leads to bigger and more unpredictable results.
12, the first thing we need to know is that the prediction error is inevitable because the world is unpredictable; The second thing to understand is not to think that high subjective self-confidence is an indicator of accuracy (low self-confidence may be more beneficial).
13, you should lower your expectations of Wall Street stock speculators, or simply don't trust them. These stock players hope to predict their future stock prices more accurately than the market. You shouldn't expect experts to make long-term predictions, even though they may have valuable opinions about the near future. At present, there is no boundary between the foreseeable future and the unpredictable long-term future.