The first limit in six years! On August 20th, Hengrui Pharma (600276. SH) ushered in the "dark moment".

The stock price halved, the company laid off employees, and the fund fled ... The former "Big White Horse" and "One Brother of Medicine" have fallen behind Mindray Medical (300760. SZ) and Wuxi pharmatech (603259. Shh).

On the evening of 19, Hengrui Pharma disclosed the 20021semi-annual report. During the reporting period, the accumulated R&D investment was RMB 258,654,380+million, a year-on-year increase of 38.48%. The proportion of R&D investment in sales revenue is as high as 19.4 1%, but the net profit is almost zero, with a growth rate of 65438+.

After the market opened on August 20th, Hengrui Pharma's share price hit the limit many times. By morning 1 1, more than 25,000 orders had been blocked, closing at 48.46 yuan/share, with a total market value of 3 1000 billion yuan. Compared with the market value of 600 billion this year, it has been halved. At the same time, the minutes of the reagent collection meeting in Anhui Laboratory uploaded on the Internet caused Mindray Medical to plummet 17%.

Influenced by "Yaomao" and "Yimao", Nanwei Medicine (688029. SH), Wanfu Bio (300482. SZ), Jinyu Medicine (603882. SH) and Tongce Medical (600763. SH) the decline exceeds 10%.

In the 2 1 year since its listing, Hengrui's share price fluctuated upward as a whole, but the decline curve in the past six months was steep and unprecedented. Why did the "demon cat" come to this step? In the last two years, Hengrui has made mistakes one after another, and the profit margin has been shrinking, just as Cai Jiandao pointed out half a month ago: Hengrui Pharma can't afford fault tolerance. The troubles in the semi-annual report immediately caused great waves in the capital market.

The future of generic drugs has been broken, and the prospects of innovative drugs and internationalization are still unclear. Recently, 63-year-old Sun Piaoyang returned to the position of chairman, which was regarded as a ray of light to save Hengrui Pharma.

0 1

Unfavorable centralized mining

Medical insurance negotiation error

There are two main reasons why Hengrui Pharma is having a hard time:

The company's semi-annual report shows that due to the influence of national and local procurement, the company's sales of traditional generic drugs declined. During the reporting period, the sales revenue of six drugs involved in the third batch of centralized procurement from June 5438 to/kloc-0 to October 065438 in 2020 decreased by 57% from the previous month. On the other hand, the main product, Karelizumab, began to implement the medical insurance negotiation price from March 1 and 202 1, with a decrease of 85%. In addition, due to many problems, such as the difficulty in admission of products and the different implementation time of medical insurance in different places, the sales revenue of Karelizumab decreased negatively from the previous month.

Rome was not built in a day. In the fifth batch of centralized procurement in June this year, Hengrui made a big mistake because of its improper quotation strategy, and inadvertently omitted the heavy products of iodixanol injection and glycopyrrolate injection, accounting for 7.1%of the company's total revenue; Compared with competitors, the prices of other winning products are far from advantageous. For example, the price of bensulfuron-methyl atracurium injection, the largest bidder, is 158 yuan, which is much higher than that of the other two companies (24 1.8 yuan and 343.8 yuan).

The importance of centralized procurement and medical insurance for pharmaceutical companies is self-evident. A little carelessness, the previous efforts may fall short.

The medical insurance negotiation of Karelizumab PD- 1 has failed, so the upcoming medical insurance negotiation is particularly critical.

On July 30th, the list of 27 1 drugs passed the preliminary examination was announced to the public. Hengrui Pharma and Baekje Shenzhou each have three new drugs, with the largest number, and two of them face direct competition. The new drugs in Hengrui Pharma include PD- 1 monoclonal antibody and PARP inhibitor. Another heavy new drug is 1 innovative drug TPO-R agonist Hettropopa ethanolamine tablets. According to the calculation of Guo Sheng Securities, it is estimated that the peak sales of this drug is expected to exceed 654.38+0 billion yuan if it can enter the rapid volume of medical insurance. This round of medical insurance negotiations is a lifesaver for Hengrui Pharma.

02

Overturned Domino "Stock"

Since its listing in 2000, Hengrui has run out of the bull market by a hundredfold, and even became one of the biggest anti-falling blue chips in the financial crisis in 2008-at that time, its share price fell by only 18.79% for the whole year. In the second quarter of 20021,the non-net profit of hengrui deduction decreased in a single quarter, and the last single-quarter profit decreased year-on-year in the fourth quarter 201/years ago.

But all this has been foreshadowed.

Hengrui Pharma's position funds have fled in the first half of the year. As of June 30th, 326 funds owned by * * * disclosed that they held Hengrui Pharma, holding a total of 236 million shares, a decrease of 29.38% from the previous month. Compared with the first quarter, Northbound Capital Hong Kong Securities Clearing Co., Ltd. reduced its holdings by about 0.10.90 billion shares in the second quarter, holding 766 million shares, and its shareholding ratio decreased from 12.26% to1.97%, and it remained the third largest shareholder in Hengrui Pharma. Oppenheimer Fund Company-China Fund even withdrew from the top ten shareholders because of its reduction.

Institutions leave, retail investors take over, but retail investors who keep entering the market to "bargain-hunting" have been stuck. According to statistics, the number of shareholders in Hengrui Pharma has increased significantly, especially in the second quarter, with an increase of over 60%. By the end of 2020, the number of shareholders in Hengrui Pharma was 28 1.80, and it had increased to 367,600 by the end of March, an increase of about 30%. At the end of the second quarter, the number of shareholders in Hengrui Pharma surged to 665,438+0.065,438+000, an increase of 65.97% compared with the end of March.

It is worth noting that Gaoyan Capital has passively become one of the top ten shareholders in Hengrui Pharma, which may be a signal that there are still large institutions in the capital market optimistic about Hengrui Pharma. Gao Yan Capital started to open positions in Hengrui Pharma from February 20 15, and added positions twice in one year. According to the data of the top ten tradable shareholders released by Hengrui Pharma, in the third quarter of 20 16, the company increased its holdings to 21930,000 shares, and withdrew from the top ten shareholders in 2020 last year. Today, Gaochun Capital holds 4,046,438+0.9 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of 0.63%.

At the same time, some cows told Caijian Road that they would enter the market for bargain hunting the next trading day.

03

Redundancy of layoffs

Why did Hengrui fight back?

On August 20th, the information about "Hengrui Pharma's massive layoffs" went viral on the Internet and even appeared in the guide column of Oriental Fortune. The layoffs mainly involve pharmaceutical representatives of generic drugs, and at the same time, it will increase the research and development personnel of innovative drugs. It is reported that the number of employees in Hengrui Pharma will be reduced from 30,000 to 20,000. In response to this matter, the staff of Hengrui Pharma Securities Department responded that the company explained this matter in the semi-annual report, "The company should concentrate resources on innovation and carry out operational reform on internationalization". Earlier, an insider in Hengrui Pharma said in an interview with the media that "in fact, the evolution of organizational structure began in June this year".

Behind the new business adjustment and massive layoffs, Hengrui Pharma's "head" and the number one soul figure Sun Piaoyang stood. On August 4th, Sun Piaoyang officially returned as chairman. Can you give Hengrui a shot in the arm? Still unknown.

According to the financial report data, Hengrui has established 65,438+036 overseas R&D teams in the United States and Europe. The main members are middle and high-level talents from well-known pharmaceutical companies such as Roche, Novartis, Pfizer and Merck. There are 23 international clinical trials under way, including 7 international multi-center phase III projects, more than 10 studies are in the preparation stage, and 86 overseas centers have started.

It is worth noting that the main product Karelizumab has brought the first international multi-center phase III clinical study to Hengrui-the international multi-center phase III study of Karelizumab combined with apatinib in the treatment of advanced liver cancer has been completed overseas, and the preparation for the submission of FDA BLA/ NDA has been started; In addition, there are a number of products to achieve global synchronous development.

Can these overseas projects be broken as soon as possible? This is a test of Sun Piaoyang's speed.

In order to highlight Hengrui's continuous innovation ability, this semi-annual report also revealed Hengrui's innovative drug revenue and pipeline. The sales revenue of innovative drugs reached 5.207 billion yuan, up 43.80% year-on-year, accounting for 39. 15% of the total sales revenue. Like high R&D investment, Hengrui bet that the true nature of innovative drugs has not changed at all. Although the competition is becoming more and more fierce, R&D, internationalization, operation optimization and the return of the king of Sun Piaoyang are still the moats of Hengrui.

1990, 32-year-old Sun Piaoyang was appointed as the factory director, saving a small factory "jiangsu hengrui Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd." with a book capital of only 80,000 yuan. Later, he helped it to the position of "White Horse Stock" medicine leader. At the end of the movie Dark Hours, Churchill said: There is no ultimate success or fatal failure, and the most important thing is the courage to move on.

(Yin Lina also contributed to this article)