The market is changing rapidly, and some investors may find that the three profit-taking methods described above can no longer meet their investment needs. Do we know which ones? The following is the strategy of the fund's fixed investment and profit-taking. Xiaobian _ A good way for the fund to profit-taking, for reference only, I hope to help everyone.
Fixed investment and profit strategy of the fund
Therefore, this time, Lao Luo introduced another practical profit-making method of fixed investment-the maximum cash withdrawal profit method.
Before understanding the maximum retracement take profit method, we first need to understand the definition of "maximum retracement":
Maximum retracement refers to the difference between the lowest point at the bottom of the valley and the highest point before the bottom of the valley when retracing at any historical point in the selected period, usually expressed as a percentage.
To put it simply, the absolute value of the maximum decline between the highest (extreme) point and the lowest (extreme) point of the index after a period of time is the maximum retracement range.
1 how to use the maximum retreat take profit method
Operation method: After the bull market starts, when the return rate of fixed investment exceeds the take-profit signal line, the withdrawal of fund net value (index closing price) should be monitored daily. Once the exit rate is greater than the set maximum exit threshold, the profit of the fixed investment in the bull market will be emptied and locked.
Suppose: when the cumulative yield of fixed investment reaches 50% (take the profit signal line), consider quitting, and invest 1 0,000 yuan every Friday, and choose the interval from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 20 15. When the return rate of fixed investment exceeds 50%, the following maximum withdrawal threshold will be used for profit. When the maximum withdrawal threshold is triggered, all the previous fixed investments are sold out.
In addition, according to the fixed investment of 1000 yuan every Friday, when the return rate of fixed investment reaches 50% again, consider the maximum withdrawal threshold set before, and so on.
Table 1 CSI 300 Different Maximum Retreat Threshold
Data source: choice, statistical interval: 2007/11-2015/12/31.
According to the calculation results in the above table, when the maximum retracement threshold is raised from 5% to 15%, the cumulative rate of return and annualized rate of return of the fixed investment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index show a downward trend. It can be seen that when the maximum exit threshold is set too large, investors will bear higher risks. Because if the market continues to fall, the yield will continue to decrease and the loss will increase.
However, does this mean that the smaller the maximum retracement threshold, the higher the yield? We still set the maximum retracement threshold at 5% to 15%, taking the CSI 500 and the Growth Enterprise Market Index as examples. Maybe we'll find something new.
Table 2 Different Maximum Retreat Thresholds of CSI 500
Data source: choice, statistical interval: 2007/11-2015/12/31.
Table 3 Different Maximum Retreat Thresholds of GEM Index
Data source: choice, statistical interval: 2013/1-2017/12/31.
The calculation of CSI 500 and GEM shows that even if the maximum retracement threshold is gradually lowered, the rate of return may not necessarily increase gradually. The reason for this situation is market fluctuation. When the maximum retracement threshold is set too small, investors are likely to miss the bigger bull market of "a small decline at present and a rapid rise in the future", thus losing the opportunity to obtain higher returns.
Therefore, there must be a more suitable range (value) for the setting of the maximum back-off amount. According to the above results, we know that in the CSI 500 and GEM index, when the maximum retracement threshold is set at around 10%, investors can get the maximum benefit from this method.
In addition, by comparing the cumulative yield with or without the maximum retracement point, we can also think that when the maximum retracement point is set reasonably, the income is far more than when there is no retracement point.
2. Limitations of maximum withdrawal and profit-taking method
The best maximum retreat point is not easy to determine. If the threshold is too small, it is easy to miss the bigger bull market behind; If the threshold is set too high, investors will have to take higher risks, because no one knows whether it is a sign of a sharp decline after facing the current low or a turning point to meet the historical high.
Using the maximum retreat take profit method means that you can't sell at the highest point. That is, the selling price is generally a relatively high point after the highest point.
If the take profit signal line is set too high, you will miss the yield of some small bull markets. For example, if you set the take profit signal line to 50%, you will miss the opportunity of 30%~40% fixed investment yield, so the take profit signal line should be set according to your personal expectation of yield.
In general, few people can sell at the highest point. After all, this timing requires excellent luck. Therefore, throwing at a relatively high point and getting high returns is enough to make investors secretly happy, and there is no need to pursue the so-called "highest point" excessively.
A good way for the fund to take profits.
1, retreat and take profit: suitable for first-line blue-chip funds.
Generally, before making a fixed investment, we will advise the novice to set a goal for himself: when the income reaches 25%, 30% or 35%, it is time to decide.
This is not difficult and simple. The question is, is 20% too much or too little? Not only can the profit reach 50%, is it not a "loss"?
No loss, no loss, if there are not so many "ifs" in the investment, it is good to earn 15%, but this mindless profit strategy can be optimized and broken into parts.
The so-called retracement rate refers to the range in which the price/net worth/income falls from the highest point to the lowest point within a period of time.
You can set the withdrawal rate at 5%. If the withdrawal rate reaches or exceeds this ratio, it is safe to release the package.
The advantage of retreat profit strategy is that it can get higher profit space.
For example, you originally set yourself a goal of 20%, and there is still hope for the market outlook. Not only is it profitable, but then the fund has been rising to 30%. As a result, it has fallen sharply for three consecutive days, and the withdrawal has triggered the bottom line of 5%. The profit-taking income is 25%, which is 5 percentage points higher than the original 20%, and the profit is more.
Profit by Batch Valuation: A Suitable Index Fund
The biggest danger is that 20% will fall to 15%, so you have to be prepared from the beginning.
The retracement and profit-taking strategy is suitable for high-quality funds, such as 50AH, leading blue-chip index or large-cap fund, because the fluctuation of such indexes is relatively low, and it will not easily trigger the retracement bottom line.
However, if it is changed to a small and medium index, it is easy to trigger take profit due to large fluctuations, but it is not appropriate.
2. Profit by batch valuation method: a suitable index fund.
The principle of our investment in index funds is:
Underestimate the fixed investment valuation, stop the fixed investment normally, continue to hold a high valuation, and overestimate the profit of batch harvesting and batch clearance.
In the past, people may only look at PE or PB when valuing, such as CSI 500. When PE=60/70/80, they will redeem in batches, and when PE=80, they will all redeem or leave some positions.
Teach your fund five strategies to make a profit.
First, the target rate of return is profitable.
Once the target rate of return is reached, the profit will be redeemed. You can take profit according to the cumulative rate of return or annualized rate of return.
Take Anxin Value Select Stock as an example. Suppose you buy a sum of money at one time after 16(20 16 at the end of the year 1) and the target cumulative rate of return is 60%, then sell the fund at the end of June 26th, 20 17.
What if it is a fixed investment? Assuming the target rate of return is 30%, the fixed investment will stop at the end of September 2065438+2007.
This paper only introduces making profits by cumulative rate of return, not by annualized rate of return. The reason is that if you invest at a low level in the market, the fund is likely to fluctuate upwards. It may be easy to set an annualized rate of return, but at this time you usually haven't earned much income or invested too little principal.
Note that the calculation of annualized rate of return is different from one-time purchase because the fixed investment enters the market in batches. For one-time purchase, annualized rate of return = cumulative rate of return/year. For example, if you buy a fund at one time and earn 24% in two years, then the annualized income is 12%. For fixed investment, usually annualized 10%- 15% is a reference index. You can enter the calculation formula of annualized rate of return in EXCEL table: = power (1+ fixed investment rate of return, 1/ fixed investment years)-1. You can also simplify the rough estimate, accumulate the rate of return/year, and then reduce it by about 2 points. In addition, after reaching the target rate of return, you can moderately lighten your position and sell it in batches. For example, in the above example, you can sell 1/2 at a one-time target rate of return of 60%, and then sell 1/2 at 70%. Of course, if it falls below 70%, it will be redeemed if it falls below 60%.
Second, control the maximum cash withdrawal and take profit.
It can be seen from the target rate of return of take profit that the setting of take profit point is very important, and it is likely to continue to rise after selling. To control the maximum retracement and take profit, we can set the maximum retracement threshold (called "take profit signal line" here) based on the target rate of return. When you reach the stop profit signal line, you should observe it every day. Only when the maximum withdrawal falls below the threshold can you stop profit and redeem it. The purpose of doing this is to make the fund adjust within a certain range in the process of rising, so as to improve the possibility of obtaining higher returns.
For example, in the above example, if the one-time purchase assumes that the profit-taking signal line is 60% and the maximum withdrawal threshold is 20%, then the fund will stop profit on February 9, 20 18, with a cumulative yield of 78%! It is higher than the simple target profit-taking rate of 60% 18%.
Similarly, this method can also make profits in batches, such as 10% at the maximum withdrawal and 1/2 at the maximum withdrawal of 20%, so that the overall income is higher. Interested friends can do their own calculations.
If it is a fixed investment, the profit-taking signal line is 30% and the maximum exit threshold is 10%, then the fund will stop making profits on April 18, with a cumulative yield of 29%. It can be seen that the rate of return to control the maximum retracement and take profit is not necessarily better than the target rate of return, and the market is unpredictable. It is also possible to start a callback after reaching the target take profit point without much increase. This method is more suitable for bull market. After the bull market has achieved super-high returns, it can successfully escape even if the market collapses. However, if the maximum retracement threshold is set too small, it is easy to be "shocked" by the market callback and miss the market.
Third, the price-earnings ratio is profitable.
When the price-earnings ratio of the reference index is at a historical high, it is necessary to close the position at a good time and redeem it in time. At the same time, you can also refer to indicators such as return on net assets and dividend ratio. The higher the ROE and dividend yield, the stronger the profitability, and the easier it is to be underestimated.
Generally speaking, when the valuation percentile is greater than 60%, it means that the valuation is normally high. Pay attention at this time. Investors who pursue stable income can sell in batches at this time; When the valuation percentile is greater than 80%, it means that it has been overvalued and it is dangerous to make more profits.
This method is more suitable for index funds, and the reference index is the tracking target index. So, is this method not applicable to active funds? You can also use it. Investors can look at the position of the fund and find an index representing their investment style as a reference index for valuation. For example, if you are partial to blue-chip stocks, then refer to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300; If you prefer small-cap growth stocks, then refer to CSI 500 and GEM.