I'll give you an analysis report on the craziest time of crude oil in 27-8, in which the reasons behind crude oil madness are written in detail for reference only.

Behind the record high price of international crude oil futures

The closing price of international crude oil futures hit a record high, which is very different from the previous two times. The main factor in 25 was the huge losses caused by hurricanes to the American oil exploration and refining industry along the Gulf Coast. The main driving factor in 26 was the "political premium" caused by the deterioration of the political situation in the Middle East. Market analysts believe that the main driving force for the rise in oil prices this year is the fundamental support-the imbalance between supply and demand in the market.

Since p>23, the global economic growth rate has exceeded 4% for four consecutive years, which is the longest period of rapid economic development since World War II. Although oil prices continue to rise, on the basis of strong economic growth, the demand for oil in various countries continues to rise.

The latest report issued by the International Energy Agency predicts that the global oil demand will reach 86 million barrels per day this year, up 2% from last year, while the growth rate in 26 is only .9% compared with 25.

IEA also predicts that the world energy demand will continue to rise in the next few years, driven by the strong growth of the world economy. By 211, the world needs 95.8 million barrels of crude oil every day.

compared with the increasing demand, can the oil supply keep up in time? According to the report of the International Energy Agency, the oil production capacity of non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (non-OPEC) is close to the peak, and there is little room for increasing production in the future. The report predicts that in the next five years, the average annual increase rate of non-OPEC oil producers will not exceed 1%. To this end, the International Energy Agency called on OPEC to increase its daily output by 1 million barrels to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global crude oil market.

OPEC's current daily output is 1.7 million barrels less than the same period last year. Due to the sharp drop in international oil prices in the fourth quarter of 26, OPEC cut its crude oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day in early November 26 and another 5, barrels in February 27. After OPEC implemented measures to limit production and protect prices, the current oil price has increased by nearly 5% compared with OPEC's second production reduction.

Guy caruso, head of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, recently called on OPEC to increase crude oil production in the second half of this year to avoid high oil prices. If OPEC does nothing, there will be too little oil stocks in the United States and the world, which will lead to the continued rise of oil prices.

in the face of various suggestions for increasing production, OPEC refused to increase production at a price limit. Naimeh, Minister of Oil and Mineral Resources of Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil exporter, said recently that the current high oil price is not due to the shortage of supply, but to the lack of global refining capacity and geopolitical tension. The rotating chairman of OPEC and the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates, Hamili, also said that the high oil price has nothing to do with OPEC, and so far OPEC has no reason to increase production.

market analysts pointed out that the slow growth of crude oil supply is the main reason for the current round of oil price increase, but the lack of refining capacity has also played a role in fueling the situation. In 23 and 24, while the global oil demand increased by 2.4% and 3.2% respectively, the refining capacity only increased by .4% and .3% respectively.

Market analysts also pointed out that the unstable situation in Nigeria, the Iranian nuclear issue, the turbulent situation in Iraq, the risk of hurricane season in the North Atlantic, and the speculative trading activities of hedge funds under the background of excess capital liquidity are also the driving forces for oil prices to rise.

Based on the above factors, analysts believe that the international oil price will run at a high level for some time to come, and some institutions have also raised their oil price forecasts.

The focus of recent market attention is the OPEC Ministerial Meeting to be held in Vienna on September 11th. Although some OPEC members refused to limit production, badri, Secretary General of OPEC, hinted in an interview with Australian media recently that OPEC did not want the oil price to rise out of control. If the oil price rose to $8 per barrel, OPEC might decide to limit production.