Since 20 18, China's bond market has gone out of a bull market that lasted for two years, and bond funds held by investors have also achieved good returns in these two years. Since the middle and late of 65438 10, the epidemic situation in novel coronavirus has spread, and risk aversion has led to a sharp drop in interest rates. Many industry analysts believe that if the epidemic inflection point appears, interest rates may face the risk of rising. Then, does the current bond market still have the value of continuing to invest, and does the bond fund still have the value of continuing to hold? The author believes that the investment value of bonds should be viewed from the perspective of asset allocation rather than short-term fluctuations. Several important long-term factors in the bond market determine that the bond market still has long-term allocation value.
First of all, the transformation of China's economic structure determines the gradual decline of economic growth. In the downward process of economic growth, due to the high macro leverage ratio and the heavy debt burden of enterprises, the real economy can hardly bear the high financing cost. From the perspective of policy-making, the policy tolerance should be improved accordingly for the downward pressure on the economy brought about by structural adjustment. On the one hand, we can't engage in "flood irrigation" and excessive easing because of downward pressure; On the other hand, even if the economy stabilizes and rebounds, the pressure of long-term structural adjustment cannot be ignored, and policy shifts are too frequent. Therefore, considering the changes in economic structure and the response of policies, the fluctuation range of interest rates will be narrowed with a high probability, and the risk of a sharp rise in interest rates is small.
Secondly, after the financial crisis, major central banks have adopted ultra-loose monetary policies, but due to the weak global aggregate demand, the ultra-loose monetary policies of major central banks have not brought about sustained inflation. The liquidity injected by this ultra-loose monetary policy flows more into financial markets, and asset prices, including equity and bonds, are more prone to inflation, and the demand for bond asset allocation continues to be strong.
Thirdly, the pace of opening up China's bond market has accelerated, and China's national debt and policy financial debt have been included in major international bond indexes. Compared with the bond markets of developed countries and other emerging market countries, the yield level of China's bond market is obviously higher than that of developed countries, but its volatility is lower than that of most emerging market countries, and it is closer to developed countries, with a good risk-return ratio. Therefore, compared with overseas bond assets, China bond assets have outstanding relative value.