On January 28, the Spring Festival holiday officially came to an end, and "workers" also ushered in a new beginning of the year. In one day, the first trading day of the Year of the Rabbit is about to begin. How will the market situation after the holiday be affected by uncertainties?

Whether the haze will be swept away this year, which is relatively reduced, is the issue that investors are most concerned about.

Before the holiday, many institutions have made outlooks and predictions for the market in 2023. Generally speaking, most overseas and domestic institutions agree that the market performance this year will be better than last year, and the main tone is recovery.

However, the pace of recovery may have "twists and turns."

Pre-holiday and post-holiday in history Looking back on the past 23 years (2000-2022, the same below), China Business News found that the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Component Index had almost mixed gains and losses on the first trading day after the start of the year.

, there were 12 years when the stock price rose and 11 years when the stock price fell.

Among them, the sharpest decline occurred on the first trading day after the Spring Festival in 2020. Under the influence of the epidemic, a deep V emerged, but it also created a "golden pit."

However, from 2021 to 2022, despite the continued epidemic factors, the Shanghai Composite Index rose on the first trading day for two consecutive years, rising by 2.03% last year.

Of course, a "good start" does not mean that the whole year will be good. For example, in 2018, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.17% on the first trading day of the year, but from a full-year perspective, the market was not good.

The cumulative decline of the Shanghai Composite Index reached 24.59%, the Shenzhen Composite Component Index fell 34.42% throughout the year, and the GEM fell 28.65% throughout the year. All equity funds were wiped out, and none of them achieved positive returns, with an average return rate of -25.5%.

Similarly, a short-term decline after the holiday does not mean that the whole year is bleak. For example, in 2020, the whole year first declined and then rose, and the overall bull market emerged. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 13.87%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 38.73%, and the GEM

rose 64.96%.

Looking at the long period of 23 years, whether it is the Shanghai Composite Index or the Shenzhen Composite Component Index, the market prices throughout the year have been mixed.

This is true after the holidays, but what about before the holidays?

In the past 23 years, the market conditions on the last trading day before the holidays have most likely been good.

For example, in the past 23 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 15 years and fallen in only 8 years. On January 30, 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index also ended with an increase; in the past 23 years, the Shenzhen Composite Component Index has

In 14 years, the last trading day before the holiday closed up, and in 9 years, it closed down.

In terms of market industry style switching before and after the Spring Festival, CITIC Construction Investment's research report shows that in the 6 years from 2017 to 2022, from the perspective of overall absolute market returns, the market performance before the Spring Festival was relatively light, and the market performance after the Spring Festival was relatively active.

In the second week before the Spring Festival, value dominates relative to growth; in the week before the Spring Festival, the switch from value to growth begins to take shape; in the week after the Spring Festival, growth dominates relative to value; in the second week after the Spring Festival, growth still dominates over value.

Based on the historical industry performance during the Spring Festival, CITIC Construction Investment analyst Ding Luming believes that there is expected to be a switch from value to growth after the current Spring Festival. The Spring Festival effect is expected to help growth outperform value in February this year.

In particular, the A-share market has an obvious "spring restlessness" in history, and this year's "spring restlessness" is particularly exciting.

Hong Kong stocks have "opened higher" However, history will not simply repeat itself, and the vertical reference is only a reference after all. The actual situation varies widely, but the Hong Kong stock market, which opened two days ago, is a real reference system.

On January 26, the Hong Kong stock market opened and got off to a good start. The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index both opened sharply higher.

As of the close of trading on January 27, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.92% in two days, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 5.35%, the State-owned Enterprise Index rose 3.88%, and the Red Chip Index rose 1.49%.

Among them, thanks to the relatively strong growth in movie box office and tourism revenue during the Spring Festival, tourism, film and television stocks in Hong Kong stocks once strengthened.

According to calculations by the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, there were 308 million domestic tourism trips nationwide during the Spring Festival holiday this year, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, returning to 88.6% of the same period in 2019; domestic tourism revenue was 375.843 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, returning to 2019.

73.1% of the same period last year.

In terms of the total box office of Spring Festival movies, from January 21 to January 27, the movie box office was 6.758 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.89%; the number of moviegoers was 129 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.16%; the "red market opened high" in Hong Kong stocks also

It has laid a good foundation for A shares.

After the holiday, tourist attractions, hotels, film and television, catering, etc. are all expected to experience a surge in market prices.