write an article? /? Wen? Sally
editor? /? Niu heel Shang
design? /? Zhao Haoran
Standing on the tuyere, pigs can fly. The point is, where is the tuyere?
people are always thinking about where the opportunities for making money are. Simply put, if you grasp the correct trend, you will have the password to future wealth.
In p>218, the automobile market entered an inflection point. A few years ago, the new forces in full swing were completing a round of elimination, and the COVID-19 epidemic intensified and hit the social economy. These uncertainties posed great challenges to investors' intelligence and courage, but the crisis and opportunity never went hand in hand.
in p>22, new words such as energy revolution, information revolution, traffic revolution and smart city frequently appear in the automobile field. Behind industrial changes are consumer demand, technological progress, the development trend of automobile industry and the change of national economic policy.
in may this year, "new infrastructure" was first written into the government work report. Seven core areas, including 5G, UHV/power Internet of Things, high-speed rail/rail transit, new energy vehicles/charging piles, cloud computing/data center, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet, have become the important pillars of the digital economy and shoulder the heavy responsibility of high-quality development of China's economy.
under the guidance of policies, the attention of the industry and the capital market to the new economy has also continued to heat up, and various provinces across the country have successively launched new infrastructure construction plans with a total amount of over 5 trillion yuan.
at the same time, with the deepening of intellectualization and networking, and the maturity of autonomous driving technology, cars have become the next most promising intelligent terminal equipment after personal computers and mobile phones. This year, running in the automobile industry has entered the first year of intelligent landing.
The simple means of transportation from point A to point B has turned into a large mobile terminal, and a computer has been added on the basis of four wheels and a sofa. Although the appearance has not changed much, the internal upgrade has made cars smarter, and the popularity of smart cars needs the support of the whole industry chain, which contains unlimited business opportunities.
in fact, from the development history of the automobile industry, every progress of automobile technology and important breakthrough of products is the result of close cooperation between vehicle and parts enterprises. Vehicle companies have made great contributions to technology integration, but most of the core technologies and key components come from parts companies, such as gasoline injection, supercharger, anti-lock brakes, airbags, radial tires and so on.
The new "this computer" for smart cars also follows this route. Chip, sensor, electric drive system ... The complex structure of "computer" has brought a new industrial chain, and countless enterprises are being and will soon be derived from it. Chen Qingtai, chairman of China Electric Vehicle committee of 1, once pointed out that "the bottom of smart cars is smart parts". From the perspective of direction, autonomous driving and car networking in the field of smart cars are two main lines.
It is worth mentioning that the new technology is transforming the car into a new species, and at the same time, the usage and application scenarios of the car have also undergone tremendous changes. In addition to new energy automobile products, new investment opportunities have begun to appear in many fields such as new travel, new retail, new technology and new applications.
The future is coming at an extraordinary speed. In any field, capital is the most indispensable part to promote technological change and industry progress. And these investors who stand at the forefront and look for opportunities from the big era, their views and opinions are worthy of reference and reference.
On the first day of the 12th Blue Book Forum on Autopilot, Liu Weihong, co-founder and COO of Black Sesame Intelligent Technology, Yu Ning, managing partner of Weilai Capital, Yu Kai, founder and CEO of Horizon, Li Yifan, vice president of Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd., and Jin Zhi, senior vice president of Little Information, hosted by Liu Baohua, editor-in-chief of auto business review, held a round-table discussion on the topic of "The direction of automobile industry worth investing now".
They found out the most worthwhile investment direction from the whole international situation, economic trends, government policies and industrial development trends.
Yu Ning believes that the most worthwhile investment direction of the automobile industry is smart cars, smart roads and service fields. "In front of the investment scale of 5 trillion yuan, more than half of them are closely related to smart transportation such as cars, roads and yards." He believes that when the new infrastructure collides with the new four modernizations, when intelligent transportation meets automatic driving, and when cars, roads and fields are superimposed on each other, it will bring new development opportunities.
in Yu Kai's view, the capability of PK OEM, a new enterprise, lies in its software capability, which makes the following chips and modules into a software-hardware combination scheme and provides them to OEM. In the future, there will be a series of new first-class suppliers with the typical differentiation characteristics of software genes in the intelligent cockpit domain and intelligent driving domain.
Li Yifan, who has participated in many major investments of Geely, hopes to contribute to the progress of the industry, and to open some channels in the industrial chain through the relationship between upstream and downstream. Although he doesn't know what the world will be like tomorrow, he hopes that Geely Automobile can change in it with the changes of the world.
"Although we are positioned as a non-controlled financial investor from the perspective of funds, unlike traditional financial investors, we hope to use the power of the industry and the resources of the OEM to set up a stage for entrepreneurs to sing." Li Yifan said.
Liu weihong gave the direction from a higher angle. He said that the automobile industry is very big, and now it is developing in the direction of "the new four modernizations". In a word, it follows the trend and moves with the trend. From battery, energy management, enjoyment, automobile itself, automobile electronics and chips, we must follow a general trend to make decisions, and the time window is also very important.
"In the future development trend, besides the intelligent brain, we need more cameras, more perception, more integration and more computing power." Liu Weihong said that although software development in the automotive field is a definite general trend, "soft and hard must be combined well, and soft and hard are not enough."
Jin Zhi, starting from his own platform, said that the most vital thing from ancient times to the present is content. No matter how technology develops, our brains have a demand for aesthetics and good content.
The following is the content of this discussion compiled by auto business review, which is slightly abridged here.
Two years have already yielded a return of about 12 or 13 times
Liu Baohua (editor-in-chief of auto business review): This is the last game today, and it may be the most crucial one. The theme of this game is investment. Today, many company leaders are very happy, but if their investment and financing are withdrawn, they will not be happy. Investing is like human blood, which may be more important than oil in industry.
The matching of characters is also very wonderful and interesting. Most of the best M&A investment projects in the history of China's automobile industry were completed by two of the guests, such as Geely's investment in Daimler and American Flying Automobile Company; Several others also have very deep qualifications and capital.
Let's follow the logic of our topic, first the capital side, then the OEM, then the technology company, and then the content company.
Mr. Yu Ning, let's get to the bottom of the most important question first. What is the automobile industry now? Where is the investment direction of automobile industry? Please make a list for us first and see if the guests at the back can break through your scope.
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Stick to several big tracks and directions in investment, and then find the smartest and most capable team, which will definitely have a good return.
-Yu Ning, managing partner of Weilai Capital
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Yu Ning (managing partner of Weilai Capital): I just gave a speech, one is a smart car, the other is a road of wisdom, and the other is a field of service. The most important thing for smart cars is self-driving, including L3-class trucks, L4 that many people talk about, and L5 that may eventually arrive, as well as self-driving chips, all of which are huge trillion-dollar investment markets.
another smart car, including the smart cockpit inside; The road of wisdom, in which the government should play a more important role, mainly the unification of standards will accelerate the process.
Tesla, as a bicycle wisdom, has developed very fast. China actually has a very big advantage different from the United States, that is, the advantage of the system, which can concentrate on doing great things. On this basis, it is easier to realize the automatic driving of L4 or L5 through the cooperation of vehicles and roads.
the last one is the service field, which I put forward. Around the service field, including cameras, changing electricity and so on.
sticking to several big tracks and directions in investment, and then looking for the smartest and most capable team, will definitely have a better return. Now the performance of investment, the best investment in two years has been about 12 or 13 times the return.
Earned or lost
Liu Baohua: the second representative to the OEM. Now, most of the investments are in start-ups. Why did you Geely invest in a grandfather's enterprise in 18 years, a 13-year-old Daimler? What is your logic?
Li Yifan (vice president of Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd.): I am in charge of Geely's industrial investment fund. From an ecological point of view, I may pay more attention to start-up and technology-based enterprises, which represent the future trend. In addition, from the perspective of the industry, the OEM and the coordinated development of resources, this is also a starting point for us to invest in Daimler.
more than p>13 years ago, after Mercedes-Benz built the first car in the world, the shape of the car has basically not changed. This is what our chairman Li Shufu said, making a car is just four wheels and two sets of sofas. However, in the next 1 or 15 years, the format of the whole car will undergo great changes, and gradually people will disappear, drivers will disappear, or something new will appear, which will change the way of travel, which is also a part of lifestyle, and there will be some revolutionary changes.
in this process, the collaboration between OEMs is very important. Because there are many emerging technologies and business models, it is impossible to win the world by one OEM or one company, and no one can do it.
I recall that two days after we bought Daimler, I accompanied Chairman Li Shufu on a roadshow in Germany, not a commercial roadshow, but a political roadshow. I met all German governments, including the federal government and the state government, from the ruling party, the opposition party and the trade unions. We repeatedly expounded our ideas. We thought that we were not competing or eliminating competition, but we were cooperating.
I remember very clearly at that time. It was two and a half years ago. At that time, Apple's market value was more than 6 billion dollars, and Google's market value was more than 8 billion dollars. Now Apple has gone for 2 trillion dollars.
At that time, we said that we had to face these emerging forces. I joked that they were barbarians at the door, and they might face a blow of dimensionality reduction in the future. When they mastered the operating system, algorithms and so on, all automobile factories now, like all mobile phone factories now, were, in the final analysis, a foundry.
we don't want to see this happen, so we should join hands to do something together. To answer your question, this is the starting point for us to become the largest shareholder of Daimler. We are now in a collaborative era.
Liu Baohua: Did you make a profit or lose?
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As for whether the finance is lost or gained, I think I can say responsibly that if Daimler goes bankrupt today, there will be no Daimler company in the world tomorrow, and we will basically get away with it.
—— Li Yifan, Vice President of Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd.
Li Yifan: We are a strategic investment in this project. We will always be a long-term shareholder of Daimler, no matter whether we make a profit or lose. I can't use permanent shareholders, and I also make this statement at the annual shareholders' meeting. In fact, it has been said in the past three years. As for whether the finance is lost or gained, I think I can say responsibly that if Daimler goes bankrupt today, there will be no Daimler company in the world tomorrow, and we will basically get away with it.
I bought two stocks
Liu Baohua: It's right to invest in old aristocrats, and now new noble is also very powerful, such as Tesla. Our logic turns back again, first to the general office in Yu Kai, and we talked with you last year. Tesla, didn't the Japanese tear down a Model? 3? I feel that the gap with Toyota is six years. You said that you were particularly impressed by this matter. Do you think this matter has much impact on China cars?
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Supercomputers with four wheels, I think this is an inevitable trend, and this matter is bound to be bigger than smart phones.
——? Yu Kai, founder and CEO of Horizon "
Yu Kai (founder and CEO of Horizon): Tesla, especially Model? The birth of 3 can actually benchmark the impact of Apple's launch of the first generation iPhone in 27 on the whole industry. Before the emergence of smart phones, functional phones were indifferent to chips and operating systems. There was only a single manufacturer writing software vertically, and there was no separation between software and hardware, and there was an open ecology with so many apps.
In the past, the car was very similar to a functional car. The chips were all small, with about 1 ECU's, which were highly coupled, unable to be upgraded, and had a very single function. Software is not separated from hardware, so it can't continuously update software, improve user experience and define new functions.
But it's different now. The central electronic and electrical architecture, chip and operating system have been completely presented to the industry by Tesla. No matter Toyota or Volkswagen saw it, they thought, Wow, that's it!
Germany's Bosch talked about the evolution of electronic and electrical architecture many years ago, and everyone knows the big truth, but at that time, everyone thought that it would not be realized on a large scale until 225, including software-defined cars, which they thought was a distant thing, but Tesla made it complete and perfect in 219. Besides, they developed the chip and the operating system themselves, much like Apple. It reproduces Apple's style of play from hardware and software, which is an inspiration to everyone.
what we have to think about is, is this an accidental phenomenon or an inevitable trend? Whether our product definition, organization, culture and talents should keep up, I personally think this is a revolutionary change, including when I started my own business. I left Baidu in (2)15 years and founded Horizon. Because I foresaw such a future, we made smart chips for cars.
When I was in Baidu, I was in charge of the whole automatic driving. At that time, when I opened the trunk of the car, I saw all kinds of machines and wires in it. After driving for a while, I had to stop in a certain shade to dissipate heat. This is totally unimaginable. A real smart car must move forward from software to hardware to build chips for the car.
Today's topic is investment. I wonder what it has to do with investment. When I started my business five years ago, I bought two stocks, one is NVIDIA and the other is Tesla. At that time, Tesla was about 2 billion dollars, and now it is 26 billion dollars and 27 billion dollars. Including my first round of investors, I also bought it myself because I heard my story. He later told me that fortunately I bought it at that time.
on four wheels.