after a century and a half of mining development and industrial process, South Africa has built a world-leading mining industry, a relatively complete range of manufacturing industries and modern agriculture, and has a fairly complete financial system and infrastructure. After the establishment of the new system of racial equality in 1994, South Africa's economy gained unprecedented development space, and Africa and the world had high expectations for South Africa. However, international capital has many doubts and wait-and-see attitude about whether the black regime in South Africa can control the developed South African economy. In the past ten years, although the poverty of black people and the high unemployment rate still plagued the social and economic development of South Africa, South Africa's successful political changes and stable economic transition have been recognized by the world and laid the foundation for South Africa's future development.
Different from the idea that the white racist regime claimed to be a part of western civilization, the development concept and strategy of the new South African government is based on Africa. South Africa cannot leave the African continent and take off alone, and Africa's economic development and integration process also benefit from South Africa's drive. The interactive relationship between South Africa and the African continent in the past decade reflects this point, and this trend will be more obvious in the next decade.
1. South Africa's economy is poised for growth
1. Maintain macroeconomic stability while making political changes.
since the abolition of apartheid in 1994 and the establishment of a democratic system with racial equality, South Africa has achieved political stability and national reconciliation, which has brought an unprecedented domestic environment for economic development. In the past ten years, South Africa has ended the economic recession in the late apartheid period. While maintaining macroeconomic stability, it has reformed and adjusted the inter-racial economic inequality and dual economic structure caused by the old system. The economy has basically maintained healthy development, the investment environment and economic structure have been more optimized, the ability to cope with the challenges of globalization has been strengthened, and the economy and society have shown a good momentum of development.
According to the data of "Ten-year Review" officially published by South Africa, from 1994 to 23, South Africa's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.8% (excluding the years affected by the Asian financial crisis, the growth reached 3.5%); Per capita GDP increased by 1% annually; The fiscal deficit decreased from 9.5% of GDP in 1993 to 1% in 22-23. The public sector debt decreased from 64% of GDP in 1994 to 5% in 23; The net debt of the South African Reserve Bank in the international foreign exchange market reached $25 billion in 1994, decreased to $22.5 billion in 1998 and went to zero in 23. The foreign exchange reserves here can pay for one month's imports and reach 2.5 months' imports; From 1993 to 23, the average annual increase in consumer prices was 7.3%, which was almost half of the 14.3% in the decade before 1993. In most years, the inflation rate remained at the target level of 3%-6%. The proportion of manufacturing products in the total export value was 25% in 1994 and increased to 38% in 23; Private sector investment increased by 5.4% annually; From 1993 to 23, the real disposable income of households increased by 3% annually. At the same time, South Africa has joined almost all international economic organizations and become an active member. Usually, South Africa is the priority country for the outside world to sign free trade agreements with African countries. At present, there are two regional economic organizations that have signed free trade agreements with South Africa, namely, the Southern African Development Community and the European Union. In addition, the negotiations on the free trade agreement between South Africa and the South American Market Community have been completed and need to be approved by the parliaments of relevant countries. At present, countries and regional organizations that are negotiating free trade with South Africa include European Free Trade Association (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein), India, China and the United States, and South Africa is also exploring signing free trade agreements with Nigerian countries and some regional organizations in Africa. Moreover, South Africa also enjoys the trade preferences granted by the African Development and Opportunity Act of the United States.
At present, South Africa's economy has experienced the longest period of steady macroeconomic growth (23 quarters) in half a century, during which the GDP grew at an average annual rate of 3.5%. In the second half of 24, the economic growth reached 5%, with an average annual growth of 4.25%. There is strong domestic demand in South Africa, and investment in fixed assets has increased. < P > 2. The economic status of blacks has improved.
with political changes, the adjustment of economic interests will inevitably occur. South Africa's economic reform is not a revolution of ownership, but an adjustment of resource allocation. In addition to abolishing all laws and regulations of racial discrimination through legislation, the main means of the South African government is to correct the economic inequality caused by the apartheid system through fiscal policies and economic and social development plans to help blacks. Over the years, the expenditure on public services for poor groups in the budget of the South African government has been increasing. In the financial budget allocation of the South African government over the years, education, public health, welfare and social services accounted for 5% of the total budget, reaching 59% in 24, of which education expenditure accounted for more than 2% and health expenditure accounted for more than 1%.
In order to correct the deprivation of blacks (so-called "non-whites", including Africans, Indians and colored people) by apartheid, since the establishment of the new government ten years ago, Laws and regulations such as ．Affirmative．Action and Broad- based Black Economic Empowerment Act (BEE) have been promulgated and implemented successively to promote and help black people develop economically, with the aim of not only improving their basic living conditions, but also "realizing substantial changes in the racial composition of ownership and management structure".
according to the figures in the 24 budget report of the finance minister of south Africa, the achievements in improving the basic economic and social needs of the majority of blacks in the past 1 years mainly include: 1.6 million houses were built, 7 new health clinics were built, 9 million people were supplied with canned drinking water, 6.4 million people were provided with new sanitation facilities, 4.5 million children benefited from the implementation of the primary school nutrition plan, and the number of people covered by social relief funds increased from 2.9 million to more than 7.4 million. In the next few years, the primary task set by the South African government to eradicate poverty is to create employment opportunities.
Since 1994, a growing black middle class has emerged in South Africa. According to the statistics of South Africa's Ministry of Trade and Industry, blacks have accounted for 1% of business owners and 15% of technicians. In terms of the racial composition of consumers, there are 1.8 million blacks among the 4.5 million high-income earners in South Africa, accounting for about 4% (in 24). Since 2, the income level of 27, blacks has entered a higher income class "middle class". During the period from 21 to 23, 39, people in South Africa rose to the middle class, 7% of whom were black.
3. Emerging industries become growth points.
for a century and a half, the unique precious metals and strategic mineral resources have been the pillars of South Africa's economy, forming a modern mining, smelting industry and related processing, manufacturing, financial and scientific and technological industrial systems centered on mining. Since 1994, with the unprecedented development of international space for South Africa's economic development, South Africa's manufacturing industry and science and technology information industry have developed rapidly, and the industrial structure has changed accordingly. At present, mining is still the dominant industry in South Africa's economic development, but its proportion in GDP has declined, the proportion of manufacturing and service industries has increased, and the information and communication technology industry has developed rapidly, which has become an important factor driving economic growth.
The South African government attaches importance to the development of science and technology and emerging industries. In 1996, the South African government established the Innovation Fund. The investment of government budget in scientific development has increased by 27% in the past five years. In 22, the government approved the National Research and Development (R&; D) strategy, one of the purposes is to improve the competitiveness of enterprises, and at the same time pay attention to the development of human resources, especially to train black scientific and technological personnel. In recent years, the investment in R&D in South Africa has increased year by year. In 21-22, the R&D investment was 7.5 billion rand (about 1 billion US dollars), accounting for O.76％% of the GDP in that year. In 25, the South African government increased R&D expenditure to 1% of GDP.
Telecom industry is the fastest growing industry in South Africa. The government attaches importance to the position of the information and communication technology sector in the economy, and relevant policies play a key role in the development of this industry. At present, South Africa ranks 23rd in the world in the development of telecom industry and 17th in the use of Internet. South Africa has the largest number of Internet users in Africa, reaching 2.89 million by the end of 21. The growth rate of mobile communication in South Africa ranks fourth in the world. By October 23, the number of mobile phone users in South Africa reached 15 million, and it is expected to reach 21 million by 26.
The wide application of information and communication technology in South African enterprises has surpassed that in the United States and Europe, and the investment of government and enterprises in information technology application ranks among the top in the world. In order to expand their business in rural areas, several major banks in South Africa are increasing their investment in satellite and mobile communication technology. In order to meet the challenge of hosting the 21 World Cup, South Africa plans to build a large-scale information and communication technology infrastructure in the next five years. The foreign direct investment in South Africa's information and communication technology industry has surpassed the mining and mining industries.
4. The trend of domestic investment is getting stronger.
In recent years, the three major sources of investment in South Africa, namely, domestic private investment, government financial investment and foreign investment, have witnessed rapid growth. The steady growth of investment in fixed assets began in 22, reflecting the high-level investment made by the South African government to strengthen infrastructure and improve public services. Although there are still some uncertain international factors in the investment environment, economists believe that South Africa has many favorable factors for investment, such as low interest rate, low inflation rate and strong consumer demand, which will surely attract investors' attention.
In recent years, large multinational companies in South Africa have increased their investment in China. For example, South African Brewing Company, the world's second largest brewing enterprise, plans to invest 5 billion rand in China in the next five years, South African Sasol Company (with the world's leading coal-to-oil technology) plans to invest 1.5 billion rand, and South African automakers' investment in 24 reached the highest level in five years-3.5 billion rand. At the same time, large-scale investment projects driven by construction and automobile manufacturing will also drive more investment activities of small and medium-sized enterprises, and this round of large-scale investment will drive employment growth. Unlike the investment in the past 1 years, which was mainly aimed at improving automation and international competitiveness, the current investment boom mainly focuses on domestic consumption demand and good prospects for domestic economic development. South African state-owned enterprises also have large-scale investment plans. For example, South African Power Company and South African Transportation Company are going to invest 165 billion rand to improve South Africa's infrastructure.
The large-scale investment plans of domestic companies in South Africa show the confidence of the business community to continue to be optimistic about the investment environment in South Africa, which will also have a positive impact on potential foreign investors. In 21, foreign direct investment reached 37.7 billion rand, compared with 54.7 billion rand in 1995. More than 9% of foreign investment is concentrated in four sectors: finance, mining, manufacturing and community social services. Europe continues to be the largest source of foreign investment in South Africa, accounting for 57.3% of South Africa's foreign investment in 1 995 and increasing to 68.5% in 21. In the same period, the proportion of foreign investment from America declined, while the proportion of foreign investment from Asia and Africa remained basically unchanged.
In the past ten years, South Africa has ended its isolation and sanctions by the international community and truly gained an open world market. In this situation, South Africa's multinational companies and financial institutions benefit first, not only the traditional European and American markets are reopened to South Africa, but also the vast areas of Africa, Asia and Latin America have become a new world for South African enterprises to explore. International trade, investment and personnel exchanges have brought development opportunities to South Africa on an unprecedented scale.
ii. south Africa's strategy towards Africa and its position in African economy
1. Africa-based development strategy.
South Africa is a regional political and economic power in Africa, and its diplomatic strategy is based on Africa, giving priority to southern Africa. From Mandela to Mbeki, they all attach great importance to relations with other African countries. In recent years, South Africa has taken active actions in promoting Africa's unity and self-improvement, participating in peacekeeping and conflict mediation, emergency disaster relief and assistance, and has established a responsible image as a regional power. At the same time, South Africa pays attention to the consultation with other big countries in Africa, and plays a role in solving African affairs, especially in strengthening relations with Nigeria and strengthening cooperation between the two sides in African affairs.
Mbeki is an advocate of African renaissance. He called on people to contribute not only to the prosperity of South Africa but also to the African renaissance, so as to make the 21st century an "African century". Driven by South Africa, African countries have formulated the New Partnership for Africa's Development and established a series of related institutions and mechanisms to promote Africa's integration and all-round economic and social development. For example, the African Renaissance Association should be established to explore the relationship between political democratization and traditional cultural values, and to strengthen coordination and cooperation among African countries in education, communication, economic statistics, public health and so on. The South African government also approved the establishment of the "International Cooperation Fund for African Renaissance" to help other African countries with South Africa and to engage in cooperation projects with other African countries with external assistance. Of course, South Africa is not just paying. The improvement of its relations with other African countries has also promoted its own trade and economic cooperation with other African countries and opened up the African market.
The South African government has also made use of international institutions and forums to actively appeal for Africa's interests, including cancelling Africa's debts, canceling agricultural subsidies of developed countries, and striving for the legitimate rights and interests of African countries in the international economy, so as to link its economic interests with Africa's development increasingly closely.
2. South Africa's economic status in Africa.
In the mid-199s, before the political reform, South Africa's total economic output accounted for 1/4 of the total GDP of the African continent, accounting for about 4% of sub-Saharan Africa and 8% of Southern Africa. South Africa produces more than 5% of electricity in Africa; Steel production accounts for 83% of Africa; Coal production accounts for 97% of Africa; The total railway freight volume accounts for 69% of Africa; Car ownership exceeds the sum of other African countries; Paved roads account for 45% of Africa; There are 5 million telephones, accounting for 38% of the African continent. South Africa is also the only important manufacturing base in sub-Saharan Africa, with absolute advantages in technology and management talents.
In 2, South Africa's GDP accounted for nearly 47% of sub-Saharan Africa's GDP, or 38.18% in terms of purchasing power. South Africa's industrial output and mining output account for 4% and 45% of Africa respectively. In 21, South Africa's gross national income accounted for 22.8% of Africa, 39.6% of sub-Saharan Africa and 7.3% of Southern Africa. In 22, South Africa's GDP accounted for the largest in Africa.