The warm wind of policy continues. Recently, dozens of cities have loosened the property market, and the policy content has become more comprehensive, but the overall urban energy level still needs to be improved.
Recently, there is a signal that the real estate control policy is loose in Suzhou. In terms of purchase restriction, the purchase conditions of non-registered households in this city have been adjusted from the accumulated payment of social security for 24 months in the previous three years to the continuous payment of social security for 6 months; In terms of restricted sales, the time limit for the transfer of new houses was adjusted from 3 years to 2 years, and the time limit for the transfer of second-hand houses was adjusted from the original 3 years to no longer limit the number of years. This news was confirmed by Suzhou Real Estate Transaction Management Center.
The fine-tuning policy of Changsha, another popular city, has lowered the threshold for improving house purchase. The interval between the purchase of the second set of commercial housing by families in the restricted purchase area of Changsha City is calculated by four years, and the identification of the purchase time of the house not only recognizes the online signing for the record, but also recognizes the ownership registration. Previously, the policy restriction was that the first set of commercial housing real estate ownership certificate of the family was purchased for 4 years or the house transaction contract was signed online.
Changchun, which experienced a round of epidemic, issued 2 policies and measures, involving five aspects: adjusting credit policy, reducing the financial pressure of enterprises, supporting green channel policy, promoting market transactions, and strengthening market supervision, including reducing the down payment ratio of provident fund loans in stages, encouraging commercial banks to explore the issuance of real estate trust and investment funds (REITs) products, and adjusting the supervision policy of commercial housing pre-sale funds.
In addition, nearly 2 cities such as Lianyungang, Shangrao, Meizhou, Zhuzhou, Yueyang and Ganzhou have recently loosened their policies. From the perspective of regional distribution, the energy levels of these cities are not high, except Suzhou, Changsha and Changchun, which are mainly in third-and fourth-tier cities.
The policy content reflects the characteristics of "combination boxing", which involves many aspects, such as down payment, adjustment of mortgage loan standard, reduction of mortgage interest rate, relaxation of provident fund, house purchase subsidy, and optimization of pre-sale fund supervision. Cinda Securities Research Report pointed out that local policies have been relaxed continuously this year, but the relaxation policies introduced by more cities are relatively simple. After the recent Politburo meeting supported local governments to improve real estate policies from local conditions, Luoyang, Zhongshan and Leshan successively introduced comprehensive relaxation policies.
According to the incomplete statistics of China Central Index Research Institute, since 222, there have been over 1 cities in China that have optimized and adjusted their real estate policies for over 2 times. Especially since April, the pace of issuing policies in various places has obviously accelerated. In April, over 7 cities issued policies for more than 1 times, which was significantly higher than that in January-March, and the policies further extended to optimize the purchase restriction, loan restriction and sales restriction, and hot first-and second-tier cities also joined the ranks of policy optimization and adjustment.
However, the China Central Index Research Institute believes that the overall policy of hot-spot first-and second-tier cities is not strong, and the restrictions on purchases and loans are relaxed for some regions or specific groups, with narrow coverage and limited boosting effect on the market; Most third-and fourth-tier cities are not limited to purchase. This year's optimization policy is more about adjusting the provident fund, granting housing subsidies, relaxing the settlement, etc., and the boosting effect on the market is not obvious.
at the central level, the central bank, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange have made intensive statements recently. The central bank said that it would implement the macro-prudential management system of real estate finance; China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that he would not blindly lend money, cut off loans or press loans, keep real estate financing stable and orderly, and do a good job in financial services for mergers and acquisitions of risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises; The two exchanges also indicated that they should support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises.
it will take some time for the policy effect to be transmitted, and the recent property market sales are still light, continuing the downward trend. According to Kerui's research data, the transaction area of commercial housing in 3 key monitoring cities decreased by 18% in April, and the year-on-year decline expanded to 58%. During the May Day holiday, the cumulative turnover of 5 key monitoring cities was 447,5 square meters, down 8% year-on-year. At the enterprise level, the overall performance scale of the top 1 real estate enterprises from January to April decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, and the decline was further expanded compared with the first quarter.
Kerry believes that whether the real estate market can really stabilize depends on the implementation of more stimulating policies, especially the down payment ratio of second homes in core cities, in order to effectively activate relatively abundant consumption of improved houses. It is expected that the market of core cities will bottom out in the third quarter, and the adjustment cycle of third-and fourth-tier cities will be longer. Only when the markets of first-and second-tier cities stabilize, will the third-and fourth-tier cities have the possibility of stabilizing.
The warm wind of policy continues. Recently, dozens of cities have loosened the property market, and the policy content has become more comprehensive, but the overall urban energy level still needs to be improved.