In the long run, international crude oil prices are generally on the rise. In the next few years, the international crude oil price will remain at a high level, mainly between 40 and 60 dollars. If there are no major emergencies, such as the escalation of the Iranian nuclear crisis, it is unlikely that the oil price will reach 100 USD.
The cost of crude oil in major oil producing areas in the world is below 15, and only a few areas reach 24. Therefore, the price of crude oil is reasonable between 25 and 45 dollars. In this range, the profits of oil companies are considerable, which consumers can bear, and the profits of substitute products are meager, which is most conducive to the development of oil companies.
Second, the factors affecting the trend of international oil prices
Unstable factors still exist, and unforeseen factors will suddenly appear and have a major impact. The factors that affect the continuous rise of international crude oil prices are: the rapid economic development of the United States, China, Indian and other countries has led to a rapid increase in oil demand; "Limited production and guaranteed price" of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries; Geopolitics, unstable factors in local areas, and the influence of natural disasters; Speculation of international speculative capital; China, India, South Korea and other countries are increasing their oil reserves.
The main factors restricting the decline of international crude oil prices are: global economic stagflation or economic crisis; Maturity of development and utilization of alternative products; The exploitation and utilization of natural gas will affect the price of oil; Discover abundant oil and gas resources; Global warming.
Third, the impact of investment.
Investment in oil and gas exploration and development is related to demand, price and reserve-production ratio. In the case of strong oil demand, high price and low reserves and output, the investment in oil exploration and development will increase steadily, which will ensure the growth of proven reserves. For natural gas, the current reserve-production ratio is very high, the demand growth is not fast, and the price is low. In order to reduce the pressure of exploration funds, the investment enthusiasm of oil companies is lower than that of oil.