What is the trend of China’s government bond yield curve?

Stock hitting refers to the behavior of investors buying the stock at the price limit after the stock rises to the limit, and the stock will continue to rise to the limit in the future.

Below, the editor brings the trend of China's government bond yield curve. Let's take a look at it. I hope it can be used as a reference.

The trend of China's government bond yield curve During the recovery of the world economy, China's government bond yield curve has also undergone great changes. From 2009 to 2019, China's 10-year government bond yield reached 4.82 during the financial crisis caused by the Sichuan earthquake.

% has reached a historical high, and has gradually fallen back to 3.12%.

It not only reflects changes in China's economic conditions, but also reflects international investors' views on China's economic future development prospects.

2009-2014: Economic Recovery Period In 2009, China's economy was in the stage of structural adjustment. The government bond yield at that time fell to 3.03%. The 10-year government bond yield curve rose slightly, but overall it was still at a low level.

level, indicating that the market has insufficient confidence in the government's economic policies.

As the government launched a number of economic structural reforms, China's economy began to enter the "new normal" in 2016. Treasury yields also changed from low to high, and the rate of rise in the curve accelerated significantly. It exceeded 4% for the first time at the end of 2010 and hit a record high at the end of 2012.

It reached a historical high of 4.61%, reached 4.45% at the end of 2013, and finally reached 4.82%.

2015-2016: Reform and stabilization period In 2015 and 2016, government bond yields fell sharply. In early 2015, the Chinese government comprehensively implemented supply-side structural reforms, triggering changes in the economic development model. A series of important reforms were welcomed by international investors.

attention, which led to a sharp decline in government bond yields, reaching the lowest point of 3.06%, and failed to break through 3.5% at the end of 2016.

2017-2018: Economic recovery period. In 2017, China's economy began to show signs of recovery, and it continued to promote various reforms. The results of the reforms were gradually revealed. China's economy grew strongly, and the government bond yields also rose slowly. At the beginning of 2018, the government bond yields reached 3.51.

% reached a record high, reaching 3.59% at the end of the year.

2019-2020: Economic slowdown and stabilization period. In 2019, China slowed down its economic growth. The government relaxed fiscal policies and launched a number of policies to expand domestic demand. However, the policy effects were limited. China's government bond yields were affected by this, from 4.08% to 4.08%.

It fell to 3.12%. At the end of 2019, the government bond yield remained between 3.12% and 3.14%, indicating that the government will maintain loose fiscal policy and the market will be buffered from the impact of China's economic slowdown.

2021-Future: Uncertainty and Change From 2021, the Chinese government will continue to promote structural reforms, implement the new development concept of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", strive to improve the quality and efficiency of China's economic growth, and achieve stability and growth in economic operations.

, treasury bond yields will also normalize, but there are still many uncertainties. The trend of China's treasury bond yield curve will be affected by many factors, and it is expected that it will still fluctuate slightly in the future.

Among the mid-line stock selection techniques for stocks that have been trading at the daily limit, if you want to make a mid- to long-term layout, you have to look at the current market situation. You can refer to the annual line (250-day line) and half-year line (120-day line) of the market index. If the trend is at the annual line

and above the half-year line, that means it is not a bear market at the moment.

In the face of national policies and the overall decline of the stock market, investors should not take chances to rush for a rebound or choose to buy, but should take advantage of the trend to clear positions and wait and see.

If the stock market rises sharply, you should enter with the trend and hold shares in the medium term.

Midline stock selection should be comprehensively analyzed from six aspects: K-line shape, technical indicators, relative price, company fundamentals, market trend, and the theme of the stock.

Some stocks with high P/E ratios and prices much higher than their intrinsic value should be abandoned.

As for how to catch stocks with continuous daily limit? The starting stock price rises by more than 6%; you must "increase the volume"; the greater the rise, the stronger the trend and the more favorable it is.

Among the key conditions for the daily limit, it is best to open higher by 2 to 3 points and open lower by no more than 2 points; do not increase the volume during the decline, otherwise there will be suspicion of shipments; the closing price should close near yesterday's closing price.

It is best to form a gap.