The logistics industry is not only the beneficiary of the rapid development of China's business in recent years, but also an important driving force for deepening innovation and continuous change of China's business model.
In 214, the State Council issued the Medium and Long-term Planning for the Development of Logistics Industry (214-22), which systematically put forward the development priorities, main tasks and key projects of the logistics industry in different stages, and defined the development direction and objectives of the logistics industry in a period of time. According to the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on deepening the structural reform of the supply side and promoting "three to one, one reduction and one supplement", the National Development and Reform Commission and other relevant departments focused on promoting the development of the real economy by reducing logistics costs and increasing efficiency, issued an implementation plan for reducing logistics costs and increasing efficiency, and launched a comprehensive reform pilot for logistics costs and increasing efficiency.
in 22, the upgrading of logistics industry is just around the corner. This paper mainly reviews the major policies and events that have affected the development of the logistics industry in recent two years, and based on this, analyzes the development trend of the logistics industry in 22.
as the overall growth rate of the market slows down, the logistics industry in China, which has experienced a high-speed growth period, will change from incremental grabbing to stock competition. Therefore, the trend of market-oriented integration is expected to become more and more obvious, and various logistics sub-sectors show an obvious trend of increasing concentration in the process of eliminating the weak and retaining the strong.
for the express delivery industry with a high degree of standardization and scale, the concentration of the industry has increased significantly, and the scale advantage barrier of the head enterprise has appeared, instead of the development crisis that non-head players face integration or liquidation. Compared with the head enterprises, small and medium-sized express delivery enterprises are facing the situation of lower industry prices, narrow market share and rising costs, and the living space that small and medium-sized express delivery enterprises can obtain in the market competition is also shrinking day by day.
in 219, various express delivery companies started a price war. Some second-and third-tier express delivery companies have withdrawn from the market, and the market share of the logistics express delivery industry is constantly gathering with leading enterprises. At the same time, with the growth of scale, the marginal benefits brought by the scale of major express delivery companies are also decreasing, and the cost of head express delivery companies is converging, and the price war between major companies will be more cruel in the future.
at present, there are a large number of logistics enterprises in China, with scattered market share and low concentration. Only a few are truly integrated logistics enterprises, and most of the rest are simple freight forwarders, transportation or warehousing operators. China Research Network pointed out that the extensive growth and simple service of the logistics industry are unsustainable, and it cannot play a fundamental role in the adjustment of industrial structure and the change of development mode. The logistics industry will enter a merger and acquisition period, which will help China's logistics market structure gradually move from decentralization to centralization, forming a new format of "zero without chaos, scattered and orderly".
according to Roland Berger's prediction, the boundaries of traditional logistics industry are gradually blurred, and diversification has gradually become the development practice of leading logistics enterprises. On the one hand, the diversification of adjacent sub-sectors will help enterprises release synergy potential and extend superior resources. At the same time, diversification has become a common choice for logistics enterprises to meet customers' one-stop logistics demands and find new growth points. In the field of standardized logistics products, as a typical standardized network logistics industry, express delivery and express delivery are actively developing across borders. Similarly, in recent years, leading logistics groups have built an integrated logistics network including express delivery, heavy goods, cold chain, instant delivery in the same city, contract logistics and cross-border logistics by building integrated logistics solutions around customers.
Third-party logistics refers to a logistics operation and management mode in which production and operation enterprises concentrate on their main business and keep close contact with logistics service enterprises through information systems, so as to manage and control the whole logistics process. With the increasingly fierce competition in downstream industries, third-party logistics companies began to participate in more business links of customers, and their service scope gradually expanded, from contract logistics to virtual production and logistics finance, and upgraded to fourth-party logistics, that is, supply chain logistics.
In 217, the State Council issued "Guiding Opinions on Actively Promoting Supply Chain Innovation and Application", which made supply chain innovation and application a national strategy. In 218, the Ministry of Commerce and other eight departments jointly issued the Notice on Launching the Pilot Project of Supply Chain Innovation and Application, once again consolidating the strategic position of the supply chain in China's economic development. According to the Report on Market Prospect and Business Model Analysis of Supply Chain Management Service Industry in China from 218 to 223, the compound growth rate of China's logistics and supply chain service market value will remain at around 1% in the next five years, and the market value of China's logistics and supply chain service will reach 321 trillion yuan by 22, and it is expected to reach 378 trillion yuan by 223.
Wang Jingtian, a researcher in the transportation industry of china galaxy Securities Research Institute, said that under the Belt and Road Initiative, supply chain logistics and other sectors have ushered in a broad space. The concept of supply chain management rose late in China, and only in recent years have a number of supply chain management enterprises emerged. According to public data, the year-on-year growth rate of revenue of listed companies in supply chain services in 212-218 is significantly higher than the average level of A-share listed companies, and also higher than the overall level of aviation and logistics sectors, which has a significant pulling effect on the entire logistics industry.
with the new round of industrial revolution and Sino-US trade friction, the global industrial layout and global supply chain pattern will be greatly adjusted. As an important component of producer service industry, logistics industry will play a more important role in enhancing the core competitiveness of manufacturing industry. This year, this trend will further drive the deep linkage and integration of logistics industry and manufacturing industry. For logistics enterprises, the key to competitiveness is no longer simply to provide logistics operation business, but to be able to output integrated solutions of upstream and downstream supply chains and realize seamless connection between manufacturing, circulation and consumption. Cultivating a global supply chain system with international competitiveness will become the core of the deep linkage and integration of logistics industry and manufacturing industry.
in July last year, China put forward the construction project of urban and rural cold chain logistics facilities for the first time, and the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Commerce and other relevant departments have successively issued policy documents such as Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of Logistics and Promoting the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market, and Notice on Promoting the Interconnection of Agriculture, Commerce and Industry and Improving the Supply Chain of Agricultural Products, so as to promote the healthy development of the cold chain logistics industry from different levels with the highest level of guidance and deployment. Guangxi, Guangzhou, Longyan, Luoyang and other provinces and cities have also introduced cold chain logistics policies and plans to upgrade the development of cold chain logistics to a level closely related to rural revitalization, precision poverty alleviation, industrial upgrading, and give support and subsidies in cold chain land use and construction funds.
According to the calculation and analysis of China Federation of Things Cold Chain Committee, the total demand of food cold chain logistics in China is expected to reach 235.2 million tons in 219, up by 24.65% year-on-year. In 219, the total scale of China's cold chain logistics market is also expected to reach 339.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%.
in 219, under the background of changing cold chain demand and market model, many enterprises actively explored and laid out new market opportunities. For example, G7 and Marubeni of Japan set up a joint venture company, focusing on asset management services of intelligent cold chain fleet. Ali's reindeer cold chain plans to build 5 large and medium-sized professional fresh cold chain warehouses in China, with 1 fresh cold chain transportation trunk lines, 1, transportation branch lines and short cold chain barges. Jingdong Logistics successively launched cold chain transportation service "JD.COM Kaban", B2B core product "cold chain city distribution" and the first platform product cold chain complete vehicle. Suning Logistics announced that it will build 1 million square meters of cold chain storage by 222. Weijie City Distribution, Jiutuo Supply Chain, Dining Beidou, Xinliangji, etc. have successively obtained financing and won the favor of the capital market.
In addition, new technologies and equipment such as smart shops, automatic sorting, intelligent warehousing and new energy vehicles are gradually being popularized and applied in the cold chain logistics industry.
looking into the future, cold chain logistics has broad opportunities. Based on the present situation, the cold chain industry is still facing many problems such as the imbalance of infrastructure, the continuous compression of corporate profit space and so on. Cui Zhongfu, vice president and secretary general of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that at this stage, it is a painful period for the transformation and upgrading of the cold chain industry, and it takes time for favorable policies to land, and the spillover effect has not yet appeared; The market demand has not yet fully erupted, and consumers' cold chain cognition still needs to be cultivated. Therefore, on the one hand, enterprises need to find the right business positioning, cultivate and improve their internal strength, and at the same time, they should actively hold a group to keep warm and enhance their risk resistance.
with the development of new technologies such as internet plus, Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, machine intelligence and blockchain, intelligent logistics equipment, intelligent transportation capacity, logistics supply and demand matching platform and cross-border enterprises have entered the fast lane of development, and modern logistics industry is entering an era of smart logistics driven by technology.
Song Xujun, the leading partner of Deloitte's logistics and transportation industry in China, pointed out that in the Internet era, the combination of logistics industry and the Internet has changed the original market environment and business processes of the logistics industry, and promoted the emergence of a number of new logistics business models and operation models, such as car-goods matching, crowdsourcing capacity and multimodal transport. The improvement of basic transportation conditions and the further promotion of informatization have stimulated the rapid development of multimodal transport mode and integrated supply chain services. A new logistics operation mode is taking shape, and the corresponding smart logistics also shows a rapid growth.
At present, the average penetration rate of intelligent logistics system in China is 2%, and the whole intelligent logistics industry has entered the growth period, and the market scale of intelligent logistics equipment has been expanding. In 222, the market scale of intelligent storage equipment and intelligent logistics distribution equipment will exceed 1 billion yuan. The application of 5G technology in logistics warehousing, transportation and distribution will promote the arrival of intelligent logistics era.
in addition to the capital market, more and more logistics giants are stepping up the layout of smart logistics in the form of logistics technology industry fund and group R&D investment, which is behind the high expectation of smart technology-driven industries to reduce costs and increase efficiency. In terms of intelligent storage equipment, we will actively build intelligent warehouses, focusing on the research and development of handling, picking and sorting, palletizing robots, automatic picking and belt conveyor handling robots; In the research and development of intelligent logistics distribution equipment, we will focus on the production and development of last mile intelligent distribution equipment such as drones, delivery robots and smart cabinets.
Yiou believes that China's logistics industry will enter an all-round unmanned era in the future, and the whole logistics ecosystem will show a trend of integration and * * * sharing. Both warehouse transportation and distribution enterprises and platform enterprises should consciously reach cooperation with other enterprises.
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