● "The bull market is hard to shake, and fluctuations are inevitable"

(Reporter Zhang) The central bank has issued a number of policies at the same time, and the most worrying thing is undoubtedly the possible impact on the stock market. In this regard, many market participants thought yesterday that the impact on the market is inevitable, but the policy reflects continuity, the market has expectations, and most special institutional investors have certain early reactions, so there will be no panic, but fluctuations are inevitable.

Xu Dianqing, a professor at the China Center for Economic Research of Peking University, said that the central bank's move was a signal that the government disapproved of overheating. The central bank's move is more direct to tell everyone that the central government will not sit idly by and watch the stock market overheat.

● Banking stocks and real estate stocks are the most affected.

Ma Qing, chief macro analyst of CITIC Securities, directly pointed out that this regulation will have a significant negative impact on the core of the current stock market-bank stocks. If the stock market rises again on Monday, it would be crazy. He believes that the benchmark interest rate for deposits has been raised by 0.27 percentage points, while the benchmark interest rate for loans has only been raised by 0. 18 percentage points, which is different from the previous benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans, which means that the spread has narrowed and the cost of capital has increased, and will not have the slightest impact on the stock market like the previous interest rate hike.

The impact of interest rate increase on the performance of listed companies is all-round, and the specific impact degree is closely related to the debt ratio of listed companies, and the impact degree on different industries is also different. Generally speaking, listed companies with a high proportion of loans to total assets have the greatest impact on performance. According to this standard, the three industries most affected by interest rate hikes are real estate, civil aviation and highways. As these industries rely on high loans to survive, rising interest will directly increase the relevant interest burden and increase financial expenses.

Liu Xianjun, a researcher at CITIC Construction Investment, believes that although it is still difficult to predict the future government's regulatory measures, at least for now, it is difficult for such regulatory measures to shake the foundation of the big bull market.

● It will attract more overseas hot money.

Li Huiyong of Shen Yin Wanguo Securities Research Institute believes that theoretically, raising interest rates will increase the capital cost of enterprises and reduce their profitability, which is not good for the stock market. However, the deposit reserve has become a conventional means of regulation and control, which has limited impact on liquidity, and the adjustment of exchange rate fluctuations will not have a significant impact on the stock market in the short term. Therefore, he believes that the negative impact of this regulation on the stock market will still be limited, and the stock market will not plummet on Monday. Therefore, we should treat the behavior of the central bank with a rational and peaceful attitude.

Chang Jin, a senior investment consultant of China Merchants Securities, thought yesterday that the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio and raised interest rates at the same time, which was relatively strong and somewhat unexpected. But she believes that raising interest rates will not have much impact on the stock market. On the contrary, raising interest rates will further attract overseas hot money into the mainland, while raising the deposit reserve ratio will only freeze interbank funds and will not have a great impact on the supply of funds in the stock market.

Many analysts believe that the strong austerity policy will have a great impact on the market in the short term when the market is already at a high level and the bubble is forming, but most of them are optimistic about the long-term bull market and think that it depends on whether there will be more powerful control measures in the future. (Reporter Zhang Xinhua News Agency and other media news)

At the same time, raising the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio will determine the future policy choice.

The People's Bank of China announced on Friday that it will simultaneously raise the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans and the deposit reserve ratio. From May 19, 2007, the benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits of financial institutions was raised by 0.27 percentage point, and the benchmark interest rate for one-year loans was raised by 0. 18 percentage point. From June 5, 2007, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions was raised by 0.5 percentage points. The above measures are aimed at strengthening the management of liquidity in the banking system, guiding the reasonable growth of money, credit and investment, and keeping the price level basically stable.

At the same time, the People's Bank of China decided to expand the floating range of RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank spot foreign exchange market from three thousandths to five thousandths on May 2, 2007.

Professor Xu Dianqing from China Center for Economic Research of Peking University said:

This time, raising interest rates and raising the margin ratio are two-pronged, mainly aimed at the excess liquidity of funds and indirectly stopping the overheating of the stock market. If the market is indifferent, then a series of follow-up measures will be introduced.

Xu Dianqing said: "The current problem in the stock market is 1. In the past two years, a large amount of surplus funds have flooded into the stock market, but the regulation of interest rate hikes is indirect, because the source of funds has little to do with banks. "

Xu Dianqing believes that the central bank's move is a signal that the government disapproves of overheating. "The stock market rises by 20% every year. Therefore, Xu Dianqing believes that the central bank's move tells everyone more directly that the central government will not sit idly by and watch the stock market overheat.

"If the market ignores this warning, not only will it raise interest rates, but more means will be introduced one after another. For example, collecting capital gains tax, raising transaction tax and so on. Because the turnover rate of the stock market has greatly increased, from tens of billions to hundreds of billions a day, this is the performance of excessive speculation. "

● Zhou Chunsheng, a professor of finance in cheung kong graduate school of business, said:

The adjustment of the central bank is both unexpected and unexpected. Unexpectedly, the CPI in April was lower than that in March. I didn't expect the central bank to continue to take nervous measures in the short term. As expected, the stock market bubble has formed and the risks are getting bigger and bigger. At present, the enthusiasm for investment in the stock market is high, and new investors enter the market every day. However, new investors often lack understanding of the stock market, which will inevitably accumulate risks and pose a greater threat to the stock market in the long run. In order to learn from the experience and lessons of Taiwan Province Province and Japan, the stock market needs to be prosperous and stable. The central bank's two-pronged approach to cooling the market has positive significance.

When talking about the impact on other markets, Zhou Chunsheng said that it will have a certain impact on the real estate market.

● Mr. Yin Zhongli, deputy director of the Financial Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that:

The central bank's three-pronged approach aims to reduce the liquidity in the banking system, curb the upward trend of prices and asset prices, and promote the balance of foreign exchange. In short, it is multi-objective regulation.

Li Xunlei, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, said:

First of all, this growth is within the market forecast.

The second is to adjust the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions and the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions simultaneously, which is mainly used to adjust the interest rate structure of the market. In this adjustment, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions is raised by 0.5 percentage points, which is more than 0.27 percentage points higher than the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate of financial institutions. These are all to prevent the current interests of banks from being too rich.

At the same time, he said that this adjustment will not have much impact on the stock market, and the stock market is greatly affected by the macro economy. But in the long run, after each interest rate hike, the stock market will soar, and the bull market will last for a while, and it is much better than we thought.

● Gao Huiqing: This rate hike is unusual.

Dr. Gao Huiqing, Director of the Strategic Planning Division of the Development Research Department of the National Information Center, believes that this is an unusual rate hike. First, the deposit reserve ratio was introduced together with the interest rate increase, and second, the increase of the deposit benchmark interest rate was higher than the loan benchmark interest rate. In addition, it is very important that the increase of the deposit reserve ratio is only a few days from the last increase. This unusual behavior is not only seen in China, but also not necessarily seen in the world.

In fact, prices fell in April, and the pressure of inflation should be alleviated. It is reasonable to say that interest rates should not be raised in this context, so this can also be said to be unusual.

Personally, I think this unusual rate hike may have this reason. First, the China-US Strategic Dialogue will be held soon, and they will put pressure on us on the exchange rate and other aspects. Raising interest rates can alleviate this pressure slightly. This interest rate hike is accompanied by the expansion of the floating range of RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank spot foreign exchange market, which is a good proof.

Second, although the inflationary pressure has eased, the growth rate of fixed asset investment is still accelerating, and raising interest rates can play a certain inhibitory role.

Third, the government may still think that the current stock market is rising too fast and there is a structural bubble, so it hopes to curb the possible bubble in the stock market by raising interest rates, which is also conducive to the healthy development of the stock market.

● Xu Xiaonian: The interest rate hike is to curb asset price bubbles.

Xu Xiaonian, a professor of economics and finance at China Europe International Business School, believes that the signal of the central bank's regulation is even more serious, and the whole market should take more seriously the measures taken by the central bank to raise the RMB deposit reserve ratio and the benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans of financial institutions.

The impact on the stock market, Xu Xiaonian believes that this is not necessarily specifically aimed at the stock market. He believes that the purpose of central bank regulation is to curb excess liquidity and curb the expanding asset price bubble.

He believes that the impact on the real estate market is currently difficult to assess. At the same time, the inhibitory effect on CPI growth will not be so fast.

● Xia Bin: The central bank's move is not to suppress the stock market.

Xia Bin, director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that the interest rate increase should be earlier. This interest rate hike has narrowed the spread and has a certain effect on curbing hot money. The central bank has been paying close attention to the spread between China and America.

He believes that China's current trade surplus cannot be solved by interest rates, but raising interest rates is conducive to the effective allocation of resources.

For the stock market, this move by the central bank has a certain negative impact on it.

"But the central bank's move is not to suppress the stock market, mainly because there is too much macroeconomic liquidity. Raising the reserve ratio and the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans is conducive to healthy economic development. " Xia Bin said.

● Guo Tianyong: The spread narrowed and the bank's expected income declined.

Guo Tianyong, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that compared with the simple increase in the benchmark interest rate of loans at the end of April 2006, the increase in the benchmark interest rate of deposits narrowed the bank spread and lowered the expected income.

Guo Tianyong said that the annual reports of listed banks in 2006 showed that the traditional business income of domestic banks still accounted for a considerable proportion of the total income of banks, and the simultaneous increase of the benchmark deposit interest rate would reduce the proportion of interest income of domestic banks in the total income, thus affecting the total profit of banks.

Guo Tianyong also said that raising interest rates will also promote banks to expand intermediary business, strengthen financial innovation and strengthen the development of cross products.

● Kiwifruit: Raising interest rates will have a certain impact on the stock market, but it will not be great.

KIWI, Chairman of Shanghai Credit Suisse Investment Management Co., Ltd.: The interest rate hike is not aimed at the stock market, but itself is to control excess liquidity. At the same time, the stock market can attract a lot of funds, and it can also alleviate the problem of excess liquidity and reduce the funds of investors.

I don't think there will be a large-scale interest rate hike in the future, and the impact of interest rate hikes on the macro economy is limited. But the current interest rate is still relatively low, and it is not impossible to raise interest rates again. However, raising interest rates is a double-edged sword, attracting overseas capital inflows, further expanding the negative effects of RMB appreciation, and the balance may be broken.

Raising interest rates will have a certain impact on the stock market, but it will not be great. 0.27 is a very low number and will not affect the attitude of ordinary people to the stock market. Externally, the years of continuous interest rate hikes in the United States are bullish years for the US stock market. Whether the stock market is adjusted or not has its own laws, and government intervention is of little significance.

Ji Ming: Raising interest rates is bad news for industries with high debt ratio.

Ha Ji Ming, chief economist of CICC, believes that raising the RMB deposit reserve ratio and the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate of financial institutions at the same time shows the improvement of the central bank's supervision consciousness.

He believes that the central bank's regulatory measures have a certain impact on the market, but the impact is limited. For the stock market, this is a mixed signal, and it is definitely bad news for some industries, especially those with high debt ratio.

At the same time, Ha Ji Ming thinks it can also restrain hot money.

Will this rate hike slow down the CPI increase in May? Ha Ji Ming believes that it is difficult to slow down the CPI growth rate in May, and the CPI growth rate will continue to increase in June and July, mainly due to the increasing pressure of rising food prices and resource prices, as well as the pressure of rising wages.

Ji Ming estimates that it may raise interest rates again in July and August.

● Song Guoqing: Small adjustments won't have much impact.

Song Guoqing, a professor at China Center for Economic Research of Peking University, said: The slight increase of RMB deposit reserve ratio and benchmark interest rates of RMB and deposits and loans by the People's Bank of China will not have much impact, and the adjustment by the central bank is in line with expectations.

● Tang Shuming, Marketing Director of China Post Fund, said:

This interest rate hike is the embodiment of the role of the People's Bank of China as a monetary authority. It is the excessive appreciation of RMB interest rate that makes the People's Bank of China use further tightening monetary policy to adapt to the external appreciation of RMB.

From the point of view of the market, Tang Shuming believes that this action of the People's Bank of China is to alert risks and regulate the market through economic means rather than administrative means.

When talking about whether the monetary authorities will do something next, Tang Shuming believes that China has entered a period of weak interest rate hike this year, so it can be expected that the Bank of China will further introduce austerity policies.

Zhang Weixing, chief economist of Goldgold, said:

The central bank's adjustment action is relatively large, and the liquidity has been recovered through a series of economic means, which shows the firm attitude of the government to control the overheating of investment and cool down the stock market at the same time. At present, the enthusiasm for stock market investment is high. Driven by interests, this adjustment is insignificant. Due to insufficient adjustment, it is easy to change from negative to positive.

Because of the legacy of the previous policy market, the government did not take administrative measures, but took economic measures to cool the market, hoping that the securities market could develop healthily.

Zhang Weixing said that we can reduce the state-owned shares and increase the supply of the stock market to cool the stock market.

● Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, said:

The timing and measures of the central bank's policy are very good, which also shows that the government has adopted the proposal calling for controlling market risks. The increase in the deposit reserve ratio and interest rate this time is not only because the central bank needs to take timely measures to prevent the economy from turning to overheating due to economic data, but also a good preventive measure against current market risks.

Zuo believes that from the recent market performance, the market has begun to show a rational development trend, because the government's various hints have prompted the number of rational investors in the market to increase. This regulatory measure is a positive factor for the stock market and helps to release stock market risks.

Earlier, Premier Wen said that the China government was fully capable of solving problems in the financial sector. For the first time in history, the central bank has concentrated on taking various control measures, which also shows that the government's market control measures are becoming more and more mature and innovative measures will continue.

● Ding Shengyuan, deputy director of Galaxy Securities Research Center, said:

The central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio and deposit and loan interest rates, which had little impact on the stock market. Compared with the neutral interest rate of 6%, the current interest rate is only 3%, and there is still a lot of room for growth.

Ding Shengyuan believes that the current market is superficially liquid, and the wealth effect attracts investment. However, from around 200 1, residents' savings began to favor current savings, and current savings gradually increased, indicating that investors can no longer tolerate long-term low interest rates, have urgent investment impulses, and are ready to withdraw from banks at any time. The stock market only provides a channel. At present, the popularity of the stock market is entirely due to the release of this investment consciousness, so the central bank has this time.

● Mr. Shang Jinhe of Hongyuan Securities believes that:

It is normal and expected that the central bank will introduce regulatory policies this time, which may cause market shocks in the short term, but the impact will not be too great in the long run, because after all, the interest rate of this interest rate hike is only 0.27 percentage points, which is relatively small.

He believes that this interest rate hike may have a certain impact on old investors and withdraw from the stock market, but it will not have much impact on new investors.

● Wu Chunlong, chief analyst of CITIC Jiantou, said:

The purpose of raising the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions and the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions this time is to regulate the real economy. The adjustment made by excessive investment growth may not have an effective impact on the secondary market, especially stocks.

Wu Chunlong also said that this adjustment will theoretically have an impact on real estate stocks and mass raw materials. The previous increase in the reserve ratio has an impact on the trend of real estate stocks, and I believe it will not have much impact on the financial sector.

● Mu Runchang, general manager of Beijing Mid-term, said:

This is a necessary means for the state to control excess liquidity and curb economic overheating. When asked that raising interest rates would have no impact on the domestic futures market, he thought that the futures market would not be too sensitive.

● Teng Tai, director and chief economist of Galaxy Securities Research Center, thinks:

This time, the central bank played a "combination boxing", which was significantly stronger than before. Although the central bank has taken similar measures in the past, they are all like Greenspan's little tricks, that is, raising interest rates by only about 0.27 point each time, which has a certain effect on recovering excess liquidity, but has little effect on adjusting asset prices.

This time, the central bank raised both the deposit reserve ratio and the benchmark interest rate. Teng Tai believes that on the one hand, it will make the pressure of RMB appreciation even greater; On the other hand, because the stock index has risen too much for some time, it will inevitably hit the short-term stock index bubble, especially the bank stocks and real estate stocks.

● Professor Cao Fengqi, director of Peking University Finance and Securities Research Center, believes that:

This rate hike is a necessary measure for macro-control and is "very normal and timely". He thinks there are three main reasons. First, there is excess liquidity at the macroeconomic level; Second, the current market price continues to rise; Third, the stock market is prone to overheating.

Cao Fengqi said that it remains to be seen how effective the interest rate hike will be. Although the benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits was raised by 0.27 percentage points, it still failed to change the negative interest rate in the market. Regarding the impact of the stock market, Cao Fengqi said that it may have a certain psychological impact on the stock market. Regarding whether it is possible to raise interest rates in the future, Cao Fengqi said that it depends on the economic operation. If the regulation effect is not good, "the deposit reserve may be raised in small steps, more than once".

Xiao Zhao: The government doesn't want to crush the fund's heavy stocks, it will plummet.

The government is very moderate, indicating that it doesn't want to smash the market, market differentiation intensifies, QFII and fund stocks plummet, and stocks controlled by bulls continue to rise.

Xiao Zhao: In my last article ("Bear's paw also wants fish-on the current multi-objective monetary policy choice"), I analyzed why we did not raise interest rates before May 1, but adjusted the reserve ratio. This is because everyone is optimistic about the overall economic trend, and the only disadvantage is excess liquidity. The performance of excess liquidity is asset bubble. It used to be a real estate bubble, but now it is a stock market bubble. Of course, how big this bubble is, it is still impossible to draw a conclusion.

The second article, writing "the stock market may go straight to 5000 points", is to show that the current situation of the stock market is explosive, but in the end it leaves a sentence: "Regulation must go ahead of the market. And what is the best policy under this real and possible market trend? It is worth pondering. "

To sum up, in fact, I have been reminding some things. On the one hand, I remind the government not to easily destroy the benign situation of sustained economic growth. On the other hand, I remind investors that the government will definitely formulate policies, and "regulation will be ahead of the market."

But overall, the rate hike is not much, and 0.27% is completely within market expectations. If it is raised to 0.54%, it means that the government will smash the plate; Moreover, the market expected to raise interest rates before May 1, but May 1 came later, and it was very mild, indicating that it didn't want to smash the market, but just wanted to see the market reaction.

At the same time, the adjustment of reserves this time shows that we are still dissatisfied with excess liquidity, so this time we not only hit a left hook, but also hit a right hook. On the one hand, we should protect the economy, on the other hand, we should euphemistically convince the education market that the policy is delicate and comprehensive.

After this interest rate hike and the increase in the reserve ratio, I think the market differentiation will intensify. On the one hand, short sellers will feel that it is not enough and the government will continue to make moves. They will continue to sing empty words and smash the market. These short sellers are mainly QFII and Public Offering of Fund, so the fund's heavy stocks will fall even more.

Bulls will think that this situation is normal, the regulation is moderate, and the government has not made a heavy attack. In this case, the stocks controlled by short sellers will continue to rise. In fact, there are many private placements besides real retail investors, and real market experts are among them.

For short sellers such as QFII and foreign investors, they don't believe that China's economy can really do well, and they don't believe that banks in China can really do well. It's not their fault. They just don't believe what they don't understand, and they mainly look at domestic investors and funds. They have confidence in China's economy and believe that there is still room for appreciation.

Under such circumstances, the stock market will be sideways, the fund's heavy stocks will plummet, and retail investors and private placements will hold large shares.

In fact, the central bank's policy this time not only gave the bears a little face, but also made a gentle move to the bulls-focusing on monetary policy to send a signal to the market.

Shen, chief economist of Citibank China: This behavior of the central bank is unprecedented, which shows the determination of the central bank to regulate excess liquidity. Although cpi has hit the warning line for two consecutive months, the extent of the central bank's interest rate hike and reserve adjustment has not changed. In recent months, the central bank's regulatory policies have been frequent, and it is speculated that the central bank will adopt a "small step and quick run" approach to regulate the economy.

Although these regulatory policies will have a corresponding impact on the financial market, China's economy is developing well and generally upward, but it has a greater impact on investors' mentality.