At present, through the popular science and mass media reports of many securities brokerage researchers, readers are no longer unfamiliar with China's population profile and problems. To put it simply, we all know that the national birth population is declining and the population is aging seriously. But for Shandong, the severity of this problem may have exceeded your imagination. Before that, let's take a look at the aging population in this country.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of 20 18, there were 1 3.95 million people in China, including 235 million people aged 0- 14 and 994 million people aged 5-64,1.
According to United Nations standards, this standard has reached a stage of serious aging. 1956 "Population Aging and Its Socio-economic Consequences" issued by the United Nations points out that when the elderly population aged 65 or above accounts for more than 7% of the total population in a country or region, it means that the country or region is aging. 1982 The Vienna World Congress on Ageing determined that the proportion of the elderly aged 60 and above in the total population exceeded 10%, which means that this country or region has entered a serious aging.
In fact, according to this standard, China has entered the aging stage very early. Statistics show that in 2009, the proportion of people aged 65 and over in China reached 8.5%, exceeding the 7% aging standard set by the United Nations. In 2065, it rose to 1 1.9%.
The intensification of aging has a far-reaching impact on the economic development of a region, because it affects not only the level of savings in a region, but also the level of consumption in a region. The level of savings and consumption is precisely the core driving force to promote the economic development of a region.
According to the life cycle hypothesis, rational consumers should arrange their consumption and savings according to their lifetime income, so that their lifetime income and consumption are equal. The life cycle hypothesis divides a person's life into three stages: young age (0- 14 years old), middle age (15-64 years old) and old age (retirement stage), and holds that the consumption level in a person's life is fixed.
Generally speaking, in the young age, family income is low, but due to the increase in future income, families often spend most of their income on consumption, or even borrow money to spend, resulting in consumption exceeding income.
In middle age, although household income will increase, the proportion of consumption in income will decrease, because part of income will be used to pay off the debts of young people and part will be used to save for the elderly. In old age, family retirement income will decrease, consumption will be greater than income, and savings will also decrease.
Through analysis, we can draw the following three conclusions from the changes in the age structure of China population in 2009:
According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the savings rate in China in 20 17 was 47%, which was 4.8 percentage points lower than that in 2008 (5 1.8%). Among them, the household savings rate decreased by 1. 1 percentage point compared with 2008.
According to the data released by Shandong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, in 20 18 years, the population of the whole province was * * * 10047 million, of which the proportion of population aged 0- 14 was 18.08%, and the proportion of population aged 15-64 was 66.88%.
Statistics show that in recent years, the aging rate in Shandong Province has accelerated. 20 1 1 year, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in this province is only 10.0 1%, which has increased by 5.03 percentage points in just seven years, with an average annual increase of 0.72 percentage points. At this rate, it is expected to reach the aging level of Japan in 2035 or earlier.
According to the population statistics released by the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on September 6, 2065438, the number of people over 65 who are defined as the elderly population in Japan has increased by 440,000 over the previous year, reaching 35.57 million, accounting for 28. 1% of the total population, setting a new historical record. In addition, the number of elderly people over 80 increased by 3 1 000 over the previous year, reaching 1 654,38+0004 million (accounting for 8.7% of the total population); The population over 90 years old increased by 6.5438+0.4 million over the previous year, reaching 2.65438+0.9 million (accounting for 8.7% of the total population).
In contrast, the situation in Guangdong Province, which is also a populous province, is much better than that in Shandong Province.
Statistics show that in 20 10, the proportion of people aged 65 and over in Guangdong province was 6.79%, which still did not meet the aging standard. By 20 18, the population of this age group in Guangdong Province will only account for 8.62%, which is far lower than the national level of 1 1.9% and also far lower than that in Shandong Province.