Everyone says that the fund should be held for a long time, so how long? Does it mean that the longer you hold it, the better? To be honest, the concept of "long-term holding" is too broad and has no practical guiding significance. Bian Xiao has compiled here how long it will take for the fund to be held for a long time, for your reference, and I hope you will gain something in the reading process!

Computational description

First of all, let's introduce the measurement indicators.

In order to reflect the overall situation, we use the corresponding fund index as the measurement object. For example, the common stock fund index (885000. WI) for common stock funds.

To measure the optimal holding time of stock funds, the base length selects two indicators: the probability of positive returns and the probability of obtaining certain annualized returns.

Indicator 1: positive income probability

Buffett's three important investment principles: capital preservation, capital preservation and capital preservation.

Keeping the principal is to lose as little as possible. No one likes the feeling of losing money, so we have to calculate the probability of positive returns if we hold different periods.

Indicator 2: the probability of obtaining a certain annualized income.

No loss is only the most basic passing line. If it's just to avoid losing money, we should put the money in the bank. Why raise a foundation, and sometimes suffer short-term losses?

Equity funds have high returns and large fluctuations, so our target annualized rate of return is10%; Bond funds are relatively stable and their returns are not so high, so the annualized rate of return on target income is set at 5%.

Then, the calculation method is introduced.

Taking the past 15 years as the calculation data, we calculate the yield of buying and holding for a certain time (such as three years) at any time, count how many trading days can reach our set annualized rate of return (5% or 10%), and finally calculate the proportion of these trading days reaching the target in 15 years. This ratio is the probability of obtaining a certain annualized income.

Calculation result

funds in the hands of the localities

Conclusion 1: The probability of positive returns is directly proportional to the holding time.

The calculation results show that the longer the holding time, the higher the probability of positive returns of ordinary stock funds, partial stock hybrid funds and balanced hybrid funds.

If you hold it for more than 9 years, the probability of positive income can reach 100%. For stock index funds, the probability of overall positive returns is also proportional to the holding time. However, if you hold it for 8 years, the probability of positive returns is the highest, at 87%.

Risk warning: China's fund operation time is short, which can't reflect all stages of stock market development. The past performance of the fund index does not represent future performance. The longer the holding time, the fewer statistical samples. The above conclusions are only aimed at the calculation space chosen by the author, and are not used as fund investment suggestions. The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious.

Conclusion 2: In order to achieve the annualized rate of return of 10%, it is more appropriate to hold it for 3-5 years.

If our goal is to get an annualized return of 10%, then in terms of probability, it is not that the longer we hold it, the better.

Generally speaking, there is a wave-like relationship between holding time and the probability of obtaining 10% annualized income. The reason is that stock funds mainly invest in the A-share market, and the A-share market has obvious bull-bear cycle, which eventually leads to the fluctuation of our holding income. To sum up, the probability of obtaining 10% annualized income in 3-5 years is relatively high.

bond funds

Conclusion 1: The probability of positive returns is directly proportional to the holding time.

The longer you hold it, the higher the probability of positive returns, which is also applicable to bond funds. Different from the situation that stock funds need to hold it for 9 years to get 100% positive returns, bond funds need less time to get 100% positive returns. If it has been held for more than 2 years, the probability of positive income of primary debt base and long-term pure debt can reach100%; The secondary debt base needs more than five years, but in fact, after holding it for three years, the probability of positive income can reach 99%, which is already very good; Partial debt hybrid funds need the longest time, more than 8 years.

Conclusion 2: In order to achieve an annualized rate of return of 5%, the appropriate holding time of partial debt hybrid funds and long-term pure debt funds is 6 years, the secondary debt base is 9 years, and the primary debt base is 10 years.

In order to get 5% annualized income, different types of bond funds are quite different. There is a "up-down-up" relationship between the probability of holding primary debt base or secondary debt base in different time periods and the probability of obtaining 5% annualized income. If you want to get an annualized income of 5% from 100%, the primary debt base needs to be held for 10 years, and the secondary debt base needs less time, so it can be held for 9 years. There is an "up-down-up-down" relationship between the probability of holding partial debt mixed funds and long-term pure debt funds with different maturities and the probability of obtaining annualized income of 5%. The probability of holding them for 6 years is the highest, which is 865,438+0% and 56% respectively.

Wait! Why is the performance of long-term pure debt funds so weak? What the hell went wrong?

So Xiaoguang looked at the annualized income of holding 10, the lowest value was 4.53%, and the average annualized income was 5.13%; The minimum annualized income of holding for 9 years is 4.38%, and the average annualized income is 5. 10%. In this way, the answer may be that for a pure debt-based fund that only invests in bonds and does not participate in stock investment at all, the annualized income of 5% is not so easy to achieve. If the set standard is 4%, it will be much easier to realize the long-term pure debt fund.

conclusion

Judging from the probability of positive returns, both stock funds and bond funds basically conform to the law that the longer they hold, the higher the probability of positive returns.

If the probability of obtaining a certain annualized rate of return is considered comprehensively, the result will be different.

In order to get the annualized return of 10%, the appropriate holding time is: 4 or 5 years for active stock funds and 3 years for passive index funds.

Some friends may ask: I think the probability of 1 year earning 10% annualized income is not very low. Why did you lie to me for 3-5 years?

The answer is that the probability of 1 year holding positive returns is not high.

Take active equity funds as an example. If you hold 1 year, the probability of positive return is 65%-70%. If you hold it for 4 years, the probability of positive returns can reach 80%-85%. The possibility of losing money is greatly reduced and the comprehensive fund-raising experience will be better.

If a bond fund wants to earn an annualized income of 5%, the appropriate holding time for a partial debt hybrid fund and a long-term pure debt fund is 6 years, 9 years for a secondary debt base, and 0/0 year for a primary debt base, with the probabilities of 8 1%, 56%, 100% and 100% respectively. Finally, I want to explain that the above conclusions are only calculated based on the data of the past 15 years, and the conclusions may be completely different with different calculation intervals. And we use the corresponding fund index as the measurement object, which reflects the overall situation. When it comes to a fund, the situation may be different. For example, there are many excellent stock funds. If you buy them at any time and hold them for 3 years, you can achieve a positive return probability of 100%.

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