Fengcaixun

Author | Wang Tingting

Avion

"In 2023, we can no longer blame the epidemic for not making money."

This seems like a joke, but it also tells the biggest difference between 2023 and the past three years. With the adjustment of China's epidemic policy, the country's economy has developed in an all-round way, and the central authorities have frequently released positive signals. It is time to pull away from pessimism and look at the future in a different way.

In particular, real estate, which is regarded as one of the "greatest pessimism" in recent years, needs to cheer up and see new opportunities. As Yu Liang said, "Pessimism is an emotion and optimism is an idea."

Feng Caixun's year-end planning series "Key words of real estate in 2023" is intended to gather the voices of many fields of real estate with sound to predict the corresponding fields in 2023, hoping to trigger your new ideas and new viewpoints.

Maintain stability? Macroeconomic keywords China's GDP growth rate is 4%-6%

A number of research institutions: At present, international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and international organizations such as Goldman Sachs, UBS and Nomura mostly focus on the forecast of China's economic growth in 2023 between 4% and 5%, while domestic institutions mostly focus on the forecast between 5% and 6%.

In addition to the epidemic prevention situation, whether the real estate can stabilize, the degree of slowing external demand and the strength of policies will all affect the economic recovery of China in 2023.

Turn the page? Key words of real estate policy? Maintaining stability and preventing risks, outdated policies are gradually abolished.

Central Economic Work Conference: Three Keys to Releasing Real Estate Policy: Stability, Security and Risk Prevention.

What is the new development model of real estate?

Meng Xiaosu, the head of the housing reform research group, former chairman of China Housing Group and chairman of Huili Fund, believes that the new development mode of real estate is "rent and purchase simultaneously".

Specifically, it develops in two aspects. First, firmly "improve the housing market system and housing security system", paying attention to the market meeting multi-level needs and the government providing basic protection; On the one hand, both rent and purchase are encouraged to solve the housing problem of new citizens and young people. For example, affordable housing can be rented and purchased simultaneously, and you can enter the market after paying the funds.

Some local restrictive policies that obviously do not meet the needs of "supporting housing improvement" should be phased out.

Therefore, Xiaobo Liu and other industry insiders predict that most second-tier cities will cancel the restrictions on purchases and sales; The purchase restriction policy in first-tier cities will be greatly loosened.

Slightly drop 2023 new house keywords? Stock supply is dominant, and house prices fall first and then stabilize.

Real data: In 2023, the price of first-hand housing is expected to fall first and then stabilize.

Due to the slow sales of the project and the low popularity of local auctions, the tolerance for lowering the filing price of new housing projects has increased.

Before the demand side has not completely stabilized in 2023, enterprises still have the motivation to exchange prices for quantities, and the supply price of new houses has room for further decline.

The main tone of supply in 2023 is to revitalize the stock and destock it.

With less land, there will be a shortage of new houses in 2023? number

There is still a large stock in the market. As of June 5438+00, 2022, the cumulative narrow inventory increased by about 17% year-on-year. The average clearance period in first-and second-tier cities rose to 16 months, and the average clearance period in third-and fourth-tier cities exceeded 20 months.

(20 14-2022.9 Trend of urban commercial housing sales area)

Concession In 2023, the supply of second-hand housing keywords increased, and the bargaining space rose first and then fell.

RealData: the supply of second-hand houses has increased steadily.

The current inventory ratio of 50 cities monitored by RealData is 202 1 increased by 14% at the end of the year, which is 13% higher than that at the end of 2020. The inventory supply of second-hand houses has basically changed.

Because consumers' expectations are not strong due to falling prices, the willingness to buy houses is weakened. In the market dominated by house exchange, if you don't buy it, you don't sell it, so the change range of new inventory is relatively stable.

Second-hand housing bargaining space increases first and then decreases.

At present, the average bargaining space of second-hand houses in key cities (the ratio of the difference between listing price and transaction price to listing price) has risen to 10%, which is at a high level in recent years.

Buyers and sellers need to make greater price concessions to reach the agreed price, and this feature will continue until more buyers enter the market, and the bargaining space will gradually decline.

Shuffle? Key words of 2023 housing enterprises: dusk turns to dawn, wearing new shoes and taking a new road.

Vanke: Twilight becomes dawn

At the shareholders' meeting of Zivanko on February 16, 2006, Yu Liang's judgment on the real estate industry has evolved from "dusk" to "dawn".

"After 20 years, real estate has become a pillar industry, and real estate policies have gradually improved. The strength and breadth of the policy exceeded Vanke's expectations. "

Subsequently, Zhu Jiusheng, president of Vanke, pointed out that the dawn had appeared and we also vaguely saw some opportunities. Vanke will start to do some positive actions, such as supplementing business opportunities, taking land in the open market and developing service business.

Paulie: Wear new shoes and take a new road.

Poly Development predicts through the white paper of the real estate industry that the operation logic of the industry has undergone fundamental changes. In the past, high leverage was used to drive scale growth, but now the logic is reversed. Enterprise investment needs to be highly dependent on operating cash flow and sales return, and demand changes precede supply adjustment.

Therefore, housing enterprises must wear new shoes and take a new road if they want to continue upward and make steady progress in the great differentiation.

Because real estate presents five characteristics: financialization, manufacturing, extreme specialization, functional livelihood and intensified competition pattern differentiation, housing enterprises should turn the extensive "three highs" model into a refined "endogenous model" and pay attention to building dynamic capabilities.

Big waves are inevitable, and some housing enterprises should give up their illusions.

Differentiation? Key words of 2023 city? The core cities recovered first, and the Pearl River Delta led the gains.

Academia Sinica: Although the situation of epidemic prevention and control is still the biggest variable, there is much room for policy optimization in second-tier cities, and the market of core second-tier cities is expected to recover steadily, such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi, Wuhan, Chongqing, Zhengzhou and Tianjin.

The scale of market transactions in third-and fourth-tier cities may continue to decline, and some hot city markets are expected to gradually stabilize and rebound. Third-and fourth-tier cities with per capita housing construction area exceeding 40m2, and some cities even exceed 50m2. The new housing space in these cities is small, and the pressure of short-term market adjustment is still great.

Historically, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions took the lead in recovery after the down cycle, and so did the second half of 2022.

(Figure: Monthly year-on-year trend of commercial housing transaction area in representative cities of various urban agglomerations since 20 16/Middle finger institute compiled from local housing management bureaus)

The residential transaction area in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta decreased most obviously year-on-year; However, the high short-term inventory in Huizhou and Zhuhai may drag down the market repair, and the Zhaoqing and Jiangmen markets may continue to consolidate at the bottom.

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei short-term regional market adjustment pressure. It is estimated that there is still room for optimization of Beijing-Tianjin regulatory policies in 2023, the property market is expected to stabilize and rebound, and most cities will continue to operate at the bottom.

Short-term market adjustment pressure is still under the influence of the epidemic situation in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Chengdu and Chongqing, and the core city market is expected to stabilize and rebound due to policy optimization. For example, Chengdu's relaxation of the property market policy is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound; Short-term Wuhan, Changsha and other cities have policy optimization expectations.

A word from Li Guangdou is well said:

1992 Opening up ushered in a new economic climax in China;

Liberalization will usher in a new cycle of China economy in 2023.

The book Japan's Lost Decade describes the society after Japan's economic crisis as a "low-desire society". But China is far from reaching the level of economic maturity and crisis.

The epidemic situation and regulation are turning over. Housing enterprises and developers may have PTSD, but we can't ignore the trillion space of China real estate.

So instead of pessimistically predicting the arrival of a "low-desire society", it is better to return to positivism.

History will not stop, society is still advancing, and everyone can still struggle for "living better".