1 1 On the closing day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell became the "savior" of US stocks. At 2: 30am on February 1 Beijing time, Powell gave a speech on the economy and job market. He said that the earliest time for the Fed to slow down the interest rate hike may be at the interest rate meeting in June+February, 5438.
After Powell's speech, the three major indexes of U.S. stocks rose collectively in intraday trading, and instantly turned from falling to rising. The biggest intraday gain of the Dow Jones index exceeded 65,438+0006 points. At the close, Nasdaq rose 4.4%, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose more than 3%, and the Dow rose 2. 17%. At the same time, the bond and money markets also responded accordingly. U.S. debt rose sharply, the U.S. dollar index fell by more than 100 points in the short term, and the offshore RMB exchange rate also rose sharply, soaring by more than 1000 points in intraday trading.
However, it should be noted that Wall Street institutions have different views on the prospects of US stocks recently. For example, 165438 local time1October 29th, MikeWilson, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley, the "big bear" on Wall Street, warned that by the beginning of 2023, the potential downside of the S&P 500 index may reach 24%, and the trend of US stocks in 2023 may be "a crazy journey".
In addition, a tax policy of the Thai government triggered a heated discussion in the market. Local time1October 29th, 165438+ The Thai Ministry of Finance issued a statement, starting from 2023, Thailand will levy a transaction tax of 0.05% on stock transactions, and it will increase to 0. 1% in 2024. In the previous 30 years, Thai stock trading was tax-free.
A strong signal from the Federal Reserve
On the last trading day of June 1 1, the eyes of Wall Street traders were all focused on Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve.
At 2: 30am Beijing time on Thursday, Powell delivered a speech on the economy and job market at the Brookings Institution. This is not only his first public appearance after the June 5438+065438+ 10 meeting on interest rates, but also the most crucial speech made by Fed officials before the silence period in February 65438.
Powell said in his speech that "inflation in the United States is still too high by any standard", so it is necessary to further raise interest rates. At the same time, when the interest rate is close to the limit level enough to reduce inflation, it is also meaningful to slow down the pace of raising interest rates.
He even explicitly hinted that the time to slow down the pace of interest rate hike may come as early as the 65438+February meeting. However, Powell warned that restrictive monetary policy will still exist for some time to come before inflation shows more obvious signs of easing. "History tells us not to relax the policy prematurely, and we will stick to it until the work is completed."
After this statement landed, the market reacted instantly. The three major indexes of U.S. stocks rose collectively in intraday trading, and instantly turned from falling to rising. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 65,438+0006 points. At the close, the Nasdaq rose 4.4%, the S&P 500 index rose more than 3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2. 17%.
Among them, US stock technology giants also rose collectively, Nai soared by over 8%, Facebook by over 7%, Microsoft and Google by over 6%, and Apple and Amazon by over 4%.
The performance of popular Chinese stocks is also very strong. NASDAQ China Jinlong Index rose 9.6%, with a cumulative increase of 42. 1 1% in October, the largest monthly increase on record. Xpeng Motors increased by more than 47%, Weilai increased by more than 2 1%, and1/month accumulated by 32.16%; Li rose by more than 18%, Billie Billie by more than 12%, Iqiyi and Vipshop by more than 10%, Alibaba and Baidu by more than 9%, Weibo by more than 8%, Tencent Music by nearly 6%, Pinduoduo by more than 4% and Netease by more than 3%.
At the same time, the bond and money markets also responded accordingly. U.S. debt rose sharply, the U.S. dollar index fell by more than 100 points in the short term, and the offshore RMB exchange rate also rose sharply, soaring by more than 1000 points in intraday trading. According to the "Fed Watch" tool of the Chicago Stock Exchange, the probability of the bank raising interest rates by 50 basis points in 65438+February is 77%.
JasonDraho, head of US asset allocation at UBS Global Wealth Management, pointed out that whatever Powell said would be regarded as a prelude to the Fed's interest rate meeting in June+February, 5438.
Obviously, at present, the Fed has reached a tricky turning point, and it must decide to what extent it should start to relax its brakes, because there are signs that American enterprises and consumers are beginning to waver under the weight of rapidly rising borrowing costs, and the recession of the American economy is clouded.
Powell said in the above speech that the US economy can still achieve a "soft landing". Of course, he also admits that the possibility is getting smaller and smaller, which proves that slowing down the interest rate hike at this time "is the best measure to balance inflation and economic risks."
The year-on-year growth rate of PCE price index 10, the most popular indicator of the Federal Reserve, slowed down to 6%, and the core PCE price index slowed down to 5%. Powell believes that this level is not enough to prove that inflation will slow down soon, and there is a high degree of uncertainty about the future trend. "Short-term data may be deceptive and need more consistent evidence."
After Powell's speech, some heavy data for the rest of this week should not be ignored by investors. Among them, the US non-farm payrolls report 1 1 will be released on Friday night. At present, the market expects that the United States will create 200,000 new jobs in June 165438+ 10, a decrease from last month.
Wall Street "Bear" Warning
Recently, Wall Street institutions are still divided on the prospect of US stocks.
Local time1October 29th 165438, MikeWilson, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley, the "big bear" on Wall Street, warned that once American companies revised their profits downwards, it would hit the American stock market hard.
Mike Wilson said in an interview that by the beginning of 2023, the potential downside of the S&P 500 index will reach 24%, and it is expected to rebound to 3,900 points by the end of next year, slightly lower than the current position. He believes that the trend of US stocks in 2023 can be described as a "crazy journey".
Wilson predicts that the Standard & Poor's 500 index may fall to between 3,000 and 3,300 in the first four months of next year. Most of the injuries will occur in large-scale companies, not only technology companies, but also consumer enterprises and industrial enterprises.
However, Wilson believes that it is not the time to sell all assets, because the favorable factors in the next few weeks will push the US stocks higher, and this rebound may last until the end of the year.
It is worth mentioning that Wilson is one of the most outspoken and determined bears in the US stock market on Wall Street, and was once called the "big bear" on Wall Street. His previous prediction was that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index would drop to around 3,000 to 3,200, with a potential drop of 20%-25% compared with the latest point (4,003.58).
In July this year, Wilson warned that the low point of US stocks in June may not be the lowest point of the bear market, and US stocks may fall further. The subsequent trend of us stocks was expected. In June 65438+1October 65438+March, the S&P 500 index hit a 52-week low of 349 1.58.
In addition, ChristopherMetli, chief quantitative strategist of Morgan Stanley in the United States, pointed out in his latest report that according to historical data and capital flow in the next few months, it is predicted that the S&P 500 index will fall by 15% at most by March 2023.
Raise the stock transaction tax
A recent tax policy of the Thai government has triggered a heated discussion in the market.
Local time1October 29th 165438, Thailand's Ministry of Finance issued a statement saying that from 2023, Thailand will levy a transaction tax of 0.05% on stock trading, and it will increase to 0. 1% in 2024. Some investors, such as market makers and pension funds, can be exempted from this tax. Before the law comes into effect after being published in the Royal Gazette, stock traders will be granted a grace period of three months.
This financial transaction tax plan is aimed at individual investors who trade more than 6,543,800 baht (US$ 28,200) on the Thai Stock Exchange every month.
ArkhomTermpittayapaisith, Thailand's finance minister, said that the abolition of the law exempting stock transaction tax means that all stock transactions in the stock market, whether profit or loss, have to pay financial transaction tax.
ArkhomTermpittayapaisith said that the new tax is part of the restructuring, aiming at strengthening fiscal discipline and creating income for the country. He predicted that the government will get about 8 billion baht net income from the financial transaction tax in the first year. If the tax is doubled, the annual net income may double to 654.38+06 billion baht (about 452 million US dollars).
At the same time, LawaronSaengsanit, director of the Inland Revenue Department, said that 0. 1 1% is only the highest tax rate, and the actual tax rate has not yet been determined, but seven retirement savings funds can still enjoy exemption from financial transaction tax.
After the announcement of the Ministry of Finance, Thailand's SET index rose by 0.68% on Wednesday and now stands at 1635.36.
It should be introduced that as early as 1992 1, the Thai government promulgated a law exempting the stock transaction tax in order to promote the prosperity of the local stock market, which has been implemented for more than 30 years.
In the past 30 years, the average daily trading volume of Thai stock market has increased by more than 10 times, reaching 80 billion baht (about 2.3 billion US dollars). During the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, due to the low interest rate of bank deposits, more and more individual investors turned to the stock market for higher returns.
According to the data of the Thai Ministry of Finance, the market value of about 660 companies listed on the Thai Stock Exchange has expanded to about 19.4 trillion baht, which is about 22 times that of 30 years ago.
However, at present, Thailand's finances are tight, and epidemic support measures, energy subsidies and economic slowdown have weakened government revenue.
Thailand's public debt is currently 10.37 trillion baht (US$ 293.7 billion), accounting for 60.4 1% of GDP, and it is expected to reach 62% by the end of 2022. Government direct debt accounts for 49.65% of GDP.
165438+1On October 30th, the Bank of Thailand announced that it would raise interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time in a row, and the benchmark interest rate was raised to 1.25%, which made the government's borrowing cost higher.