The real gold content of foreign exchange reserves has directly decreased, and the money owed by countries to China has actually decreased. The biggest beneficiary is the United States
It is difficult for China to export commodities, and the export volume will also drop significantly. On the contrary, foreign goods will easily enter China, which may not be a good thing for China's economy to flow abroad. The reality is that the renminbi has appreciated, but prices have also risen, offsetting the benefits of appreciation. With the overall economic rise, the people did not enjoy the benefits brought by the appreciation of the RMB. Take the yen as an example: the burden brought by the appreciation of the yen to the Japanese economy can be shown as follows.
First of all, the appreciation of the yen has comprehensively raised the cost and price of Japanese products. In the past, Japanese products, which once galloped the world market with high quality and low price, suddenly became "aristocrats" in the commodity world. Although the appreciation of the yen has little effect on the export of irreplaceable products, there are still quite a few irreplaceable products in Japanese exports. The appreciation of the yen will curb the demand for such products in the international market, thus hitting the enterprises that produce such products. This kind of blow will also spread to other industries through the industrial chain, and may even form a comprehensive suppression of Japan's economic growth. This is what the Japanese government is worried about "the weak appreciation of the yen".
Second, the appreciation of the yen has lowered the import price of Japan. Although this can make Japan, which is short of resources, exchange less expenses for the needed resources, but cheap foreign manufactured goods also flood into Japan at the same time, impacting Japan's original industrial structure. The most affected are those labor-intensive industries with low technical content but important significance for maintaining employment.
Third, the sharp appreciation of the yen has aroused the interest of international speculative capital, making the yen the object of speculation. Since then, the yen exchange rate has fluctuated greatly, the Japanese stock market has been in turmoil, and international speculative capital has made waves. This has brought new unstable factors to the Japanese economy. Potential benefits of RMB appreciation: it will help to repay foreign debts and import trade, curb inflation and China's overseas investment, and help RMB move towards regional and international currencies. However, the appreciation of RMB will do more harm to China's economy. First, weaken the competitiveness of China's goods in the international market. China's goods enter the world market with "low price and good quality", and the appreciation of RMB will inevitably affect the export of China's products and their competitiveness in the international market. Second, the number of foreign enterprises investing in China will decrease. China's development experience has proved that the lack of foreign investment, or the sudden decrease of foreign investment, is very unfavorable to the sustainable development of China. Although the appreciation of RMB is beneficial to foreign entrepreneurs who have invested or have capital in China, their assets will increase in value, which will deter entrepreneurs who are about to invest in China. Therefore, in the long run, this will be detrimental to the economic development of China. Third, it is not conducive to the development of domestic tourism in China. Once the RMB greatly appreciates, it will play a negative role in the development of domestic tourism in China. Of course, the appreciation of RMB will also promote China people to travel abroad, but the resulting foreign exchange losses will also be detrimental to China. Fourthly, China's huge foreign exchange reserves will be greatly reduced. China's foreign exchange reserves are as high as US$ 3 trillion, ranking first in the world. China's foreign exchange reserves are mainly US dollars. As long as the renminbi appreciates, a large amount of dollar reserves will shrink. Fifth, China's economy may get out of control. Maintaining the stability of currency exchange rate is very important for the sustainable development of a country's economy. China's financial and monetary systems are still far from perfect. Once the currency exchange rate is greatly adjusted, it is very likely to get out of control. Japan is a good reference. Japan's economy has never recovered since the 199 1 bubble economy burst. The value of money depends on its purchasing power parity. The purchasing power of the RMB is actually declining, which means that the RMB is actually depreciating at home! This is unique in the world. Due to the appreciation of RMB, our foreign exchange reserves are bearing the cost of losing an aircraft carrier every three months. In other words, we are all working for America. Originally, the appreciation of RMB was good for China consumers and economic development, but the appreciation of RMB was mixed with too many American factors. The reason why the United States has repeatedly asked us to raise the RMB exchange rate has two main purposes. First, for every one percentage point appreciation of RMB, our foreign exchange of more than $3 trillion and US Treasury bonds of more than $ 654.38+0 trillion will shrink by tens of billions. Second, China's exports will reduce profits, thus reducing exports to the United States.
Now that our country has been kidnapped by the US dollar, we can neither rise nor abandon it. If we sell US Treasury bonds, it will obviously be a double-edged sword for China, which will do harm to others. China's massive selling of US dollar assets and US Treasury bonds will aggravate the weakness of the US dollar and eventually force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, thus wiping out the US economic recovery. However, the United States is likely to significantly increase the import tariffs on goods from China, which will prevent goods from China from entering the United States, which will do great harm to China's economy, because the United States is China's largest export market, and China has not yet found a market that can replace the United States. Once exports are blocked, enterprises in China close down and workers lose their jobs, economic problems will become political problems. Therefore, selling US Treasury bonds, a financial nuclear bomb, is equivalent to mutually assured destruction. You can't do it unless you have to. The United States used China's weakness to force the RMB to appreciate.