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How much will international oil prices increase?

In 2004, international oil prices continued to rise, arousing widespread concern around the world. In early January 2004, the price of oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was around US$32 per barrel. By October, the international crude oil futures price actually reached US$55.67 per barrel, an increase of 73%! This undoubtedly casts a shadow over the prospects of world economic development.

According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, every US$5 increase in oil prices will reduce global economic growth by approximately 0.3 percentage points.

The continued rise in oil prices has also increased corporate costs and reduced profit margins, especially companies in the aviation, automotive and other fields, which have been more affected. In the face of high oil prices, although Asia's economic growth has not slowed down significantly, the resulting inflationary pressure has become apparent.

The "Short-Term Energy Outlook for December 2007" report released by the U.S. Department of Energy Information shows that the average global demand for crude oil in two years is expected to reach a record high of 87.16 million barrels per day, at the level of two years. The increase was 1.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.6%. The previous forecast for January was an increase of 1.46 million barrels per day, with an expected increase of 1.7%.