Looking forward to the market outlook, fund managers believe that there are still investment opportunities in the real estate sector, but the follow-up will move from the general increase of the sector to differentiation, and it is necessary to be more cautious in stock selection and seize industry opportunities.
Many real estate stocks have daily limit.
In the A-share market in recent days, the real estate sector has become the most eye-catching "star". The data shows that on June 5438+065438+1October 14, many real estate stocks such as Jindi and Xincheng Holdings had daily limit, and the Shenwan real estate index rose by 2.08%, ranking third in the 3 1 Shenwan first-class industry index. As of165438+1October 14, the Shenwan real estate index rose by 1 1.27% in the past five trading days, ranking first in the increase.
In the Hong Kong stock market, on June 5438+065438+1October 14, the Hang Seng Composite Industry Index-real estate construction industry rose by more than 6%, while many real estate stocks such as Country Garden, Times China Holdings and Hejing Taifu Group rose by more than 30%.
Recent trend of Shenwan real estate index
As for the reasons for the recent surge in the real estate sector, some people in Public Offering of Fund analyzed that last week, the regulatory authorities expressed their support for the "second arrow" to help private enterprises repair their credit, a number of private enterprises increased their credit and issued bonds, and Hangzhou's policy adjustment denied loans, all of which reflected that stabilizing the industry is the main idea of the current policy, and it is expected that more policies will be further promoted in the future, and the process of industry repair will be accelerated.
Driven by the surge in the real estate sector, the net value of theme funds in the real estate industry has also risen. According to statistics, as of June 165438+ 10/,June 11,18 1 among the real estate industry theme funds,1.
The real estate industry theme fund with the highest increase in net value this month-Western Profit Strategy Optimization C 1 1, 10 has increased by 20.56% since October. By the end of the third quarter, the top four stocks of the fund were all real estate stocks, namely Jindi, Xincheng Holdings, Vanke Enterprise and Longhu Group.
The real estate industry theme funds such as ICBC Industrial Upgrade and Yingyonghui Tianyi 10 have all increased by more than 1 15% since October. There are many real estate stocks in the top ten, including Poly Development, Vanke A, China Merchants Shekou, Greentown China and China Overseas Development.
The position of fund managers is divided.
In fact, Public Offering of Fund has started to increase its real estate stocks in the third quarter. According to the statistics of GF Securities, according to the fund's third quarterly report, the industries that increased positions most in Public Offering of Fund in the third quarter were national defense, transportation, real estate, coal and other sectors. After further excluding the influence of the rising industry index, the real direction of increasing or decreasing positions is calculated. In the third quarter, the most notable industries of Public Offering of Fund Masukura were national defense, transportation and real estate.
Some well-known fund managers have some differences on the handling of real estate stocks in the third quarter. Qiu Dongrong increased his holdings of real estate stocks in the third quarter, and managed more products such as China Overseas Development and Yuexiu Real Estate. Qiu Dongrong said in the third quarterly report that the real estate market policy was further relaxed from multiple dimensions such as purchase restriction and finance, and entered the repair stage after the risks were completely exposed. The characteristics of the real estate industry that the "leftover is king" are more concentrated in the leading enterprises of central enterprises, with the advantages of high credit and low financing cost. These companies will have good anti-risk ability, potential growth and profit quality, and the current valuation is extremely low, with good return potential.
Among the top ten stocks of Xingquan Trend Investment managed by Xie Zhiyu, Tong Lan and Li Dong as of the end of the third quarter, there are four real estate stocks: Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A and Jindi. At the end of the second quarter, Poly Development had only 1 real estate stocks.
However, at present, the macro-timing strategy, which ranks first in the income of active equity funds this year, has gradually reduced its holdings of real estate stocks. At the end of the first quarter, there were four real estate stocks in the fund, namely Poly Development, Gemdale, Vanke A and Xincheng Holdings; At the end of the second quarter, there were two real estate stocks, Poly Development and Jindi. At the end of the third quarter, the real estate stocks of Gemdale were only 1.
Seize the opportunity of individual stocks
For the follow-up performance of the real estate sector, many insiders said that there are still opportunities in the real estate sector, but the follow-up will move from the general increase of the sector to the differentiation, and the selection of individual stocks needs to be more cautious. In addition, with the improvement of financing environment, the fundamentals of building materials downstream of the real estate industry chain are expected to improve.
Hu, a researcher on financial real estate of "Fund", said that the real estate sector has gained greater flexibility in the rapid change of mood and expectation, coupled with the downward trend of the previous stock price. He believes that the fundamentals of the real estate sector have not improved significantly, the rebound is large, the pace is fast, and the market sustainability is in doubt. But in the short term, the expected turn has not been fully reflected, and there are still opportunities in the real estate sector. However, the follow-up may move from a general rise in the plate to differentiation. The selection of individual stocks needs to be more cautious, and the housing enterprises that benefit most from policy orientation and better management quality deserve more attention.
Yang Yaquan, a researcher at Nord Fund, said that the financing support for private housing enterprises is a major turning point. The subsequent performance of the real estate sector will be divided, and the current valuation of some private housing enterprises is still very low, and there is still a lot of room for repair in the future. The recent policies mainly improve the financing dilemma of private housing enterprises, which can not only improve the quality of accounts receivable of downstream building materials, light industry and household appliances enterprises, but also speed up delivery, and the demand of corresponding industries in the downstream is expected to rebound marginally.
Harvest fund believes that the deduction of real estate-related industrial chain prices may be divided into two stages. The first stage is valuation restoration, and policies, market sentiment and expectations will promote the gradual restoration of valuation. The second stage depends on the specific sales situation of real estate in the future and whether there will be further and better enterprises or opportunities in the industrial chain. Look at these housing enterprises, in addition to the traditional real estate development business, whether there are more new businesses, including business, property and other sustainable businesses. Once sustainable business is developed, it will provide more powerful support for the valuation of these enterprises.
Hu also said that the real estate chain is long, the problems of development enterprises are alleviated, and the construction of affordable housing is accelerated, which is good for the real estate chain. From the perspective of accounts receivable and real estate demand, the repair of building materials will be faster than that of household appliances and light industry, and the sub-sectors such as waterproofing, hardware, tiles and coatings within building materials are expected to be improved fundamentally and emotionally. In addition, banks and insurance sectors that were greatly affected by the deterioration of the real estate debt environment in the early stage benefited from the expected improvement of the asset side, or it is expected to repair the valuation.