Let's discuss the process of bottoming out ...

First, we will see the "valuation bottom". Market participants will jump out and say, "Look, a certain industry, or a certain stock, has fallen to this point, and has reached that position at the bottom of a certain year", just like the price of TBEA rebounded today, because many people in the market saw that it had reached that price in November 28, and this is the valuation bottom.

Secondly, we will see the "policy bottom". When monetary policy changes from a long-term tightening to a loose node, it is often called "policy bottom", which means similar to the turning point we say, from bad to good. For example, cut interest rates and reduce the deposit reserve ratio.

finally, it is the "bottom of the market". At this juncture, the market has become unilaterally positive and negative, and retail investors or institutions are all optimistic about the market outlook, and they have picked up RMB to invest in this bargain-hunting war.

So, when the hypothetical situation happens, and it bottoms out at 2, it will rebound. What stocks can make institutions and retail investors agree that this is the "bottom of the market" and bargain-hunting one after another?

Personally, I think that such stocks must meet the following conditions:

1. The performance must be good, and it is best that the compound growth rate will reach more than 3% in the future, and the stocks killed by mistake

2. The valuation must be low, preferably lower than the previous low (for example, at the end of 28)

3. The industry prospect must belong to the boom type, and it is best to have long-term support from national policies

. It is best to be held by some large institutions (such as funds) for a long time

5. If the rebound occurs in the second half of the year (option A) and if the rebound occurs next year (option B)

On the whole, it is extremely difficult to find, but there are still some that meet the above four items.

In my personal choice, I will be optimistic about the following industries and individual stocks:

Class A

Large consumption concept stocks include shopping malls, wine making, clothing, tourism, etc.

First of all, they have more certainty of future performance growth. A typical example is liquor stocks, which have been in deus ex in the first half of the year. The sales volume and performance growth of "off-season" have attracted a large number of funds to gather in.

similarly applied to shopping malls, tourism and other industries, a series of favorable factors, such as the future peak consumption season and tax reform, will greatly boost the performance of such stocks ...

Class B

New energy concept stocks include polysilicon, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, etc.

At the time of the global energy structure reform in the future, such stocks will show explosive growth in the next few years. Just like the mechanical infrastructure industry that benefited from the national 4 trillion plan at the time of the economic crisis, the implementation of policies and funds really required people to give money to people (a typical example is Sany Heavy Industry). The focus is on photovoltaic and polysilicon. What do you think is more promising than solar energy, more clean energy and recycling energy concept? The current lack of such stocks is not support, but the implementation of policies and funds. In fact, at present, Seiko Technology is already a leading figure among them. What can reassure investors more than performance?

with the deepening of enterprise reform (forced elimination of backward production capacity industries and promotion of new energy technologies), new energy stocks will surely stand out from the crowd.

of course, this estimate will have to wait until next year, and it will take time for the policy to be implemented and effective.

The above is my humble opinion, and all my personal logic analysis is welcome. If you don't like it, please shoot it.