After the real estate "three arrows" were shot out, both the issuing end and the capital end of real estate bonds ushered in a huge window period. At present, the policy has been implemented for more than a month. How is the real estate bond market now?
Housing enterprises issue bonds 1 month, reaching 22 1 billion.
165438+1October 8, China Association of Interbank Market Dealers (hereinafter referred to as "Dealers Association") continued to promote and expand the bond financing support tool for private enterprises ("the second arrow") to support private enterprises, including real estate enterprises, to issue bonds for financing.
With the opening of the policy window, various housing enterprises have put debt issuance on the agenda, and the issuance of real estate bonds is accelerating. In June, 5438+065438+ 10, the issuance scale of real estate bonds was 2210.2 billion yuan, a substantial increase year-on-year. The total amount of bonds issued by private housing enterprises Zhonglonghu Group and Binjiang Group is 2.8 billion yuan, accounting for 65,438+02.66%.
Shelf application is the "first move" for housing enterprises to issue bonds. In the past 1 month, a large number of housing enterprises have submitted shelf-type bond issuance applications to the exchange. According to statistics, about 95 billion yuan of funds are currently "stored" on the "shelves". The Association of Dealers has accepted applications for issuing shelf bonds from Longhu, Midea Real Estate, Xincheng Holdings, Vanke, Gemdale and Hui Jin, with the amounts of 20 billion yuan, 654.38+0.5 billion yuan, 654.38+0.5 billion yuan, 28 billion yuan, 654.38+0.5 billion yuan and 2 billion yuan respectively, making a total of 95 billion yuan. In addition, China Bond Promotion Company has received the business intention of credit enhancement from nearly 100 real estate enterprises. Xuhui Group recently expressed its intention to register and issue RMB 654.38+0.5 billion to China Association of Interbank Market Dealers, and the relevant registration work is currently in the process of preparation. Greentown China plans to submit a plan for the registration and issuance of shelf medium-term notes of RMB 65,438+065,438+0 billion for the replacement of bonds due and the development and construction of the project.
In fact, the landing speed is also faster than expected. In a short period of 1 month, China Bond has fully guaranteed the issuance of four lottery tickets, with a blood transfusion of 6.7 billion yuan.
165438+1On October 29th, Longhu Group took the lead in completing the bookkeeping of 2 billion yuan medium-term notes. The bond is provided by China Bond Credit Enhancement Investment Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "China Bond Credit Enhancement") with full, unconditional and irrevocable joint and several liability guarantee, with a term of three years and coupon rate's 3%.
Metro Holdings, Midea Real Estate and Hui Jin Group followed closely, issuing bonds of 2 billion yuan, 654.38+0.5 billion yuan and 654.38+0.2 billion yuan respectively.
The First Financial Reporter noted that compared with the coupon rate range of 3.2%-3.5% in the debt-increased guarantee issuance of demonstration real estate enterprises from August to June this year, the coupon rate in the expanded "Second Arrow" issuance was in the range of 3%-4.3%, further widening the interest rate difference of real estate enterprises. In the research report, CSI Pengyuan pointed out that the coupon rate of bonds issued by different housing enterprises is quite different, or it is related to the drastic market fluctuation and different qualifications of different housing enterprises.
In addition, the credit enhancement mode of "central-local cooperation" has also injected a "shot in the arm" for private housing enterprises to issue bonds. On February 9th, 65,438, New Hope and Midea Real Estate issued 2.43 billion yuan of corporate bonds in Shanghai Stock Exchange, Country Garden issued 6,543.8 billion yuan of corporate bonds in Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and securities companies and market institutions jointly created three credit protection tools for private housing enterprises to issue bonds. It is worth noting that after the successful implementation of the pilot, the policy orientation is more clear. 65438+February 2 1, the meeting of the CSRC pointed out that it is necessary to continue to implement the special support plan and tools for private enterprise bond financing, and better promote the cooperation between the central and local governments to increase credit and support private housing enterprises to issue bonds.
The price of real estate bonds rose.
The real estate bond market is constantly moving, and real estate bonds are welcoming a rising window. With the overall decline of the bond market,1real estate bonds 1 1 have fluctuated against the trend since October.
As of 65438+February 19, the CSI real estate bond index rose as high as 3.4% in the past month. From165438+1October1,13 19, the price of 985 bonds rose, accounting for over 3%.
1 1 10 has the strongest rise in the middle and late October, with "20 Shimao G 1", "20 Shimao 03", "2 1 Jinke 0 1" and "20 Xuhui 0/kloc-"
The dollar bond market also rebounded to some extent. From 165438+1October16 to165438+1October 30, iBoxx Asia China dollar real estate bond index rose 12.36, while yield to maturity fell by 2.87%.
Many people in the industry believe that real estate bond investment has been traded from left to right. With the gradual recovery of credit in the real estate industry, there are a lot of investment opportunities.
A related person of a fund institution pointed out that under the current policy, it is unlikely that the price of real estate bonds will return to the previous low point in the future. Specifically, short-term real estate bonds are more certain, and long-term real estate bonds may have some fluctuations.
How far can the real estate market go? Sun Binbin, an analyst in TF Securities, pointed out in the research report that compared with 20 14~20 15, the issuance scale of domestic real estate bonds took the lead in improving, and it increased substantially from the second quarter of 20 14, and the issuance scale remained at the end of 20 16. After 930, real estate stocks, real estate bonds and dollar bonds all came out of the surplus market. The performance of each market is different. The performance of the domestic real estate bond market lasted for nearly 1 year, and the China dollar bond market lasted for more than two years.
Many people are also cautious about the market outlook. LAM, a fixed-income analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, believes that the inflection point of real estate policy does not completely correspond to the inflection point of real estate debt. The reason is that the repayment order of bonds is lower among all stakeholders in real estate, just ahead of equity.
Can the debt of large housing enterprises make a soft landing under the pressure of maturity?
Many insiders said that the policy strongly supports private housing enterprises to issue bonds or is related to the approaching tide of debt maturity.
According to CSI Peng's metadata, from mid-February, 2022 to mid-October, 2023 10, 65,438+10, the total repayment of real estate bonds was 29.87 billion yuan, and the balance of bonds involving resale exercise was13.565 billion yuan. Gemdale, Pomegranate Property and Pearl River Investment may face certain repayment/resale pressure.
In fact, in the first quarter of next year, housing enterprises will continue to be under pressure on the debt repayment side. Guo Ying, director of Pengyuan International, pointed out at the annual credit risk meeting of CSI Pengyuan on the 22nd that the repayment amount of domestic real estate bonds will reach 358.5 billion yuan in 2023, and the repayment peak will come in March. China dollar real estate bonds are due to reach 60 billion yuan, and the peak of debt repayment is expected to be 65,438+10 and April.
Debt repayment pressure continues to heat up. In addition to issuing new bonds, many housing enterprises have recently started negotiations with creditors in an attempt to obtain an extension.
165438+1October 10, R&F real estate announced that "H 16R&F 4", "16R&F 05" and "16r"
On February 6, 65438, the overall extension of domestic bonds of Longguang Group was approved by bond investors. The extension period of extended bonds and ABS is 36 months, and the extension period of unexpired bonds and ABS is 48 months, with a total extension scale of 22.36 billion yuan. The extension of debts due to exceed 20 billion yuan will effectively improve the cash flow pressure of Longguang Group.
In terms of overseas debt, domestic insurance and foreign loans may also become a "sharp weapon" to resolve the overseas debt stock of housing enterprises. Longhu Group received 700 million yuan of support from Bank of China for "internal insurance and external loan", which released a positive signal. At present, CITIC Bank and China Everbright Bank have recently signed strategic cooperation agreements with a number of housing enterprises to provide comprehensive financial services for housing enterprises, including "internal insurance and foreign loans" and other business areas.