the housing problem is a big issue related to people's livelihood. The soaring housing prices have been widely criticized for exceeding the affordability of the people. The central government has issued a series of control measures year after year, but the effect is not obvious. What is the problem? What will be the next step? To this end, we selected relevant research reports for evaluation, invited relevant experts to analyze them from their own perspectives, and inspected the practices of neighboring South Korea and Japan for reference.

since p>26, the central government has comprehensively applied economic, legal and necessary administrative means to introduce a series of macro-control policies for the real estate industry in a differentiated and step-by-step manner. Overall, the regulation has achieved initial results. However, there are still some problems in the real estate market, such as the unreasonable housing supply structure, the rapid rise of housing prices in some cities, and the difficulty in meeting the housing needs of low-and middle-income residents. It is urgent to continue to strengthen and improve the macro-control policy of housing on the basis of summing up experience.

the background of macro-control of real estate industry

since p>26, while the real estate industry is growing rapidly, there have also been some problems such as excessive investment growth in real estate industry and excessive housing price increase in some areas, making the real estate industry one of the key industries for macro-control.

(I) Macro-economic environment for the development of real estate industry

Since 26, with the improvement of residents' living standards, the upgrading of residents' consumption structure has promoted the upgrading of industrial structure, accelerated the industrialization process and rapidly increased the urbanization rate, which has enabled China's economy to enter a new round of growth cycle with the rapid development of housing, automobiles, electronic communications, energy and basic raw materials industries. Among them, the rapid growth of investment in real estate, steel, cement and other industries has driven the rapid growth of investment in fixed assets as a whole. From January to February, 24, the investment in fixed assets increased by 53%, and there was a new imbalance in economic operation. The supply of energy and transportation was tight, and the consumer price index (CPI) began to rise (up 5% in June), and China's economic operation showed signs of overheating.

(II) System reform and policy adjustment of the real estate industry

First, in 1998, the reform of the housing system for urban residents was comprehensively promoted, and seven systems of housing distribution, supply, market, finance, property management, intermediary, administrative management and regulation were comprehensively launched, and the housing welfare distribution system that had been implemented for more than 4 years was abolished and replaced by monetization distribution; The privatization of residents' housing property rights and the marketization of housing acquisition channels have been clarified, which has mobilized residents' enthusiasm for buying houses, and residents' housing demand has begun to be released in a centralized manner.

Second, a better economic environment has created more housing demand. First, the new generation of urban families and new immigrants in urbanization need housing. Second, the living standards of urban residents have improved, and there is a higher demand for housing. Some residents who have obtained the property rights of housing reform have generated housing demand for replacing old ones with new ones and replacing small ones with large ones. Third, a large number of urban demolition and transformation have increased the housing demand of residents. The fourth is the demand generated by a large number of social funds using real estate as investment products.

third, the state's policy support for the development of the real estate industry has promoted the rapid development of the real estate industry from both supply and demand. From the beginning of the Ninth Five-Year Plan, in order to expand domestic demand, the China Municipal Government took housing as a new consumption hotspot for residents, gave preferential mortgage, tax reduction and exemption and other policy support, encouraged the purchase of houses, and stimulated housing consumption. At the same time, as a pillar industry of economic growth, the state has given policy support to the sustainable development of the real estate industry, including relaxing the credit scale control of commercial housing, implementing the pre-sale housing system, rectifying and canceling some administrative fees, and promoting the rapid growth of the real estate industry. Compared with 1999, the completion of real estate investment increased by 24.5% annually, which was 7.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the same period.

(III) Lack of institutional mechanisms and macro-control of the real estate market

Since the second half of 25, the real estate industry has experienced overheated real estate investment and excessive housing price increase in some areas, especially in the Yangtze River Delta regions such as Shanghai and Hangzhou, where the housing price has increased by more than 1%, which has become a symbol of this round of macroeconomic overheating. Its root lies in the deficiency of system and mechanism. First, the real estate market has been liberalized, but the corresponding system has not been established and improved, and the market mechanism cannot effectively play its role. Second, most of the land is transferred by agreement, which can't reflect the real land price and the land resources can't be used reasonably. Third, the cost of using funds is low. These factors lead to strong demand and investment power, and it is difficult for the market to adjust effectively. In April 24, in order to curb the excessive growth of real estate investment, the State Council successively issued a series of policies for macro-control of the real estate industry.

characteristics and effects of real estate macro-control policies since 26

(I) priorities and effects of real estate macro-control policies in 26

control objectives and priorities: at the beginning of 26, in order to curb the excessive growth of real estate investment, the central government adopted a macro-control policy of "strictly controlling land and tightening credit". On the one hand, we have intensified the rectification of real estate land, cleaned up and rectified construction land, strictly examined and approved the management, tightened the land supply, and gradually implemented the "bidding, auction and hanging" of business land, thus controlling the land supply from the source. On the other hand, the People's Bank of China twice raised the deposit reserve ratio, raised the capital ratio of real estate development projects (excluding affordable housing projects) to 35% and above, raised the benchmark interest rate of deposits and loans of financial institutions, prohibited real estate liquidity loans, tightened monetary policy and reduced financial support for real estate development.

effects and problems: in 26, the control measures were mainly administrative means, with great intensity. By controlling the supply of land and funds and controlling the supply of real estate, the growth rate of real estate investment decreased from 5.2% at the beginning of the year to 28.1% at the end of the year, down by 22.1 percentage points.

However, this regulation is mainly to curb supply, but it lacks effective control over demand, especially irrational demand. Some policies to expand domestic demand and stimulate housing consumption in previous years are still playing a role, causing an imbalance between supply and demand. There is a rapid increase in unreasonable demand such as speculation and passive demand; The price of commercial housing has risen sharply due to the decline in the proportion of middle and low-grade housing supply and the unreasonable real estate supply structure. The national average sales price has increased by 14.4% year-on-year. Especially in Shanghai, Hangzhou and other southeast coastal cities, house prices have increased even more, which has aroused the concern of all sectors of society about whether there will be a "real estate bubble".

(II) Characteristics and effects of macro-control policies for real estate in 27

At the beginning of 27, according to the new situation and new problems in the real estate market, the central government continued to issue a series of control policies within three months.

objectives and key points of regulation and control: the regulation and control objectives have changed from a single objective of controlling the excessive scale of real estate investment to a dual objective of controlling the investment speed and curbing the excessive rise of commodity housing prices. The focus of regulation and control should be adjusted accordingly: First, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market should be effectively adjusted. Adjust the real estate market from two aspects: increasing supply and reducing demand, so as to achieve the goal of stabilizing housing prices. On the one hand, the use of credit, taxation and other economic means to increase the cost of real estate speculation and curb the demand for real estate speculation; Strictly control the scale of urban demolition and transformation and curb the demand for passive housing. At the same time, increase the efforts to clean up idle land, so as to increase land supply. Second, in terms of planning approval, land supply, credit, taxation, etc., we will give preferential policy support to small and medium-sized Taoxing and low-priced ordinary housing and improve the housing supply structure. The third is to rectify the order of the real estate market. Measures such as forbidding the re-transfer of pre-sale houses, implementing the purchase of houses in real-name registration system and online transactions were introduced, and illegal sales activities were severely investigated and dealt with according to law. Accelerate the establishment and improvement of the real estate market information system, strengthen the dynamic monitoring of the real estate market operation, and create a good market environment.

Effects and problems of regulation: At the end of 27, real estate investment increased by 19.8%, and the growth rate dropped by 8.2 percentage points over the same period of last year; The sales price of commercial housing rose by 7.5%, down 3.6 percentage points from the same period of last year; The sharp rise in housing prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou and other cities has been effectively curbed, indicating that macro-control has achieved initial results.

But in early 28, some problems emerged. First, the growth rate of real estate investment rebounded, with the growth rate from January to June increasing by 4.4 percentage points from the end of last year. Second, the unreasonable supply structure still exists, and the proportion of low-and medium-priced housing and affordable housing urgently needed by low-and middle-income families in some big cities is low and the supply is insufficient. Third, housing prices in Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, Dalian and other cities have risen sharply, which is unbearable for low-and middle-income people and increases social unrest.

(III) Characteristics of macro-control policies for real estate in 27

At the end of May 27, nine ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Construction and the Development and Reform Commission, jointly issued the "Opinions on Adjusting the Housing Supply Structure and Stabilizing Housing Prices", and various ministries and local governments successively issued relevant supporting measures.

control objective: to develop low-priced and medium-sized ordinary commodity housing that meets the self-occupation needs of local residents, and to solve the housing difficulties of low-income families step by step.

key points: first, local governments are required to use low-rent housing and affordable housing to truly solve the housing problem of low-income people. Second, since June 1, 26, the land supply area and development area of ordinary housing below 9 square meters shall not be less than 7% of the planned area of that year. The supply of low-priced and ordinary housing shall be ensured by limiting the apartment type, housing price, competitive land price and competitive housing price. The third is to use economic means. Strengthen the tax management of residential transfer and the management of foreign-funded housing purchase, and curb speculation; Raise the interest rate of bank deposits and loans, adjust the down payment ratio of housing consumption credit differently, and guide reasonable consumption; Standardize the order of the real estate market, enhance the transparency of market information and strengthen the guidance of public opinion to promote the orderly operation and healthy development of the real estate market. Fourth, the implementation of real estate control policies will be included in the target responsibility assessment system of local governments to ensure the effective implementation of control measures.

Overall evaluation of macro-control policy system of housing industry

(1) Features of this round of macro-control policy

First, macro-control is staged and gradual. Emphasis should be placed on solving the outstanding contradictions in each stage, gradually deepening regulation and control, and maintaining the continuity and stability of economic policies, resulting in less shock and impact.

the second is the comprehensiveness and systematicness of regulatory policies. According to different control objects, corresponding control measures have been taken to form a policy system that comprehensively uses administrative means, legal means and economic means, and good results have been achieved.

Third, the regulatory policies pay attention to differential treatment and classified guidance. Mainly reflected in the need to control the speed of real estate investment, curb investment demand, but also to protect the enthusiasm of ordinary residents to buy houses. In the "double tight" situation, land supply, project approval, credit support and other policies are inclined to affordable housing, middle and low-grade housing. While curbing unreasonable demand, we have given preferential treatment to ordinary residents' self-occupation demand in terms of mortgage and tax.

(II) Effectiveness of macro-control policies

First, the excessive growth of real estate investment has been controlled, and the steady development of the real estate industry has been maintained. The tightening of money and land and the strengthening of government supervision have made real estate investment develop in a standardized way; Investment, speculative demand and passive demand caused by early demolition have been restrained to some extent, and the real estate market has shifted to self-occupation demand; Local governments are given greater responsibility in regulating and controlling housing security policies. The excessive growth of real estate investment has been effectively controlled, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of investment has dropped from 5.2% at the beginning of 26 to 19.8% at the end of 25 and 24% in November 27. The average sales price of commercial housing rose by 14.4% year-on-year in 26, and gradually declined. In November 27, it rose by 5.8% year-on-year, and the housing price rose gently.

second, it has promoted the deepening reform of the land system. The regulation and control adopted policies and measures combined with reform, established the system of bidding, auction, listing and transfer of operating land use rights, and strengthened the supervision and management of land transactions, which blocked loopholes and promoted the marketization process and standardization of land transactions.

thirdly, the housing market system has taken shape. A housing market system consisting of newly-built housing market, second-hand housing transfer market and housing rental market has basically formed. And gradually established and improved the pre-sale of commercial housing, standardized the order of real estate transactions, online declaration of housing transactions and other rules and regulations, and gradually improved the order of the real estate market.

(III) Existing Problems and Causes

There are still some outstanding problems in the development of the real estate market. First, the structural contradiction of housing supply is still very prominent. From January to June, 27, 4 key cities listed for pre-sale had an average floor area of 115 square meters, and the supply of low-priced and medium-sized ordinary commodity housing and affordable housing suitable for local residents' self-occupation demand was still insufficient. Second, housing prices in some cities are still rising rapidly. In November, 27, the prices of cities with large price increases: Fuzhou rose by 1.4%, Beijing by 1.3%, Shenzhen by 9.8%, Xiamen by 9.6%, Qinhuangdao by 9.3%, Chengdu by 8.9% and Guiyang by 8.4%, especially Beijing and Shenzhen. Since the second half of 26, the prices have continued to rise by a large margin, making ordinary residents still unable to afford houses, and the price decline has not reached. Third, the housing security system is not perfect, and the housing problem of low-income families has not been fundamentally solved.

further analysis of the above problems has deeper reasons.

first, the two 7% control measures for ordinary housing below 9 square meters are not convincing and operable. This measure is an important measure to improve the housing supply structure and meet the self-occupation needs of local residents. But what is the goal of the measures, whether to meet the needs of the new generation or to replace the old with the new residents. If all of them are included, it also involves the problem of residents' housing consumption target, and whether 9 square meters of housing is the target of residents' housing in the next few years. In addition, after the target positioning is determined, what is the demand and whether the proportion is 7%? All these need to be given a scientific and reasonable explanation to be convincing and get understanding and support from developers.

At the same time, there is a lack of maneuverability in the sales process of low-and medium-priced houses, including the qualification examination of buyers, housing sales procedures, supervision and management, etc., and it is difficult to effectively implement the measures.

second, institutional problems restrict the enthusiasm of local governments to implement housing control policies. First, GDP is the main index to assess local political achievements, and the investment speed of real estate industry and the decline of house price increase directly affect local economy. Second, land revenue is the main financial revenue available to local governments, and land price limit will affect local revenue. Third, the source of funds for implementing low-and medium-priced housing and improving the housing security system is not clear, and local governments need to raise money themselves. Several factors directly affect local interests.

Third, the low return on investment affects the enthusiasm of developers to build middle and low-grade housing. Low-and middle-grade housing is a market-oriented behavior under certain administrative restrictions, which adopts the method of competitive land price and competitive house price on the basis of limited apartment type and limited house price. What developers pursue is investment income. The result is that the house price may be high under the condition of satisfying the developer's income (there is a precedent in Guangzhou), and the developer does not actively participate because of the low expected income.

fourth, the housing security system is not perfect. First, the housing security system is not perfect. The government's responsibility to solve the housing problem for low-income people is unclear and lacking