I. Sources of investment risks
1, the risk of economic cyclical fluctuations
Economic development is cyclical, and each economic cycle is divided into four stages: recovery, overheating, stagflation and recession. In different economic stages, the performance of major assets is also different.
Take equity assets as an example. In the stage of slowing economic growth, most equity assets do not perform well, especially in the stagflation period, inflation remains high and stocks will plummet. On the contrary, in the recovery stage of economic growth, equity assets will perform well, especially in the recovery period, when inflation is low, which is the golden age of stock investment.
2. Policy risks
As the name implies, it is the impact of macro-policy changes on financial markets. Macro policies, including fiscal policy, monetary policy, industrial policy, regional development policy, etc.
For example, the new energy with the best market increase in recent years is largely due to the policy of "carbon neutrality and peak emission of carbon dioxide" mentioned by the state, which has set off an energy revolution. There are also 202 1 Chinese stocks that have been falling endlessly, also because of the influence of anti-monopoly policies.
Source: wind
3. Interest rate risk
The investment uncertainty caused by interest rate changes is interest rate risk. Economic cycle, central bank's monetary policy, inflation expectation and even the international interest rate level will all affect the change of interest rate.
For example, the tightening of monetary policy by Yang Ma, commonly known as "shrinking the table", and the rise in interest rates are all bad for the stock market and bond market, especially the bond market, which is greatly affected by interest rates. The chart below shows the inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates. As you can see in the red box, the yield of 10-year government bonds has risen and bonds have fallen.
Source: wind, Good Buy Fund Research Center.
Data interval: 2003.1.2 ~ 2021.1.30.
4. Inflation risk
It refers to the risk that the purchasing power decreases and the real rate of return decreases due to the increase of inflation, which is also called "purchasing power risk". For example, if you buy a fund and the income is 20%, but the inflation rate reaches 6%, your actual rate of return is actually only 14%.
This risk is particularly harmful to bonds, because the interest and face value of bonds are fixed at the time of issuance, and rising inflation will reduce the purchasing power of future cash flows to bondholders. If inflation expectations rise in the future, it will be bad for bonds.
The inflation rate is generally expressed by CPI. It can be seen that the CPI has been below 3% for most of the past two decades, but sometimes it will rush to above 5% and 6%, and the inflationary pressure is not small. If we put M2 together, we can see that there is a positive relationship between them. Although there will be "deviations" from time to time, it will not affect a long-term stable equilibrium relationship.
Source: wind, Good Buy Fund Research Center.
Data interval: 2000.01~ 2021.11.
5. Exchange rate risk
Exchange rate risk refers to the possibility that the value of assets or liabilities denominated in foreign currencies will rise or fall due to exchange rate fluctuations. For example, QDII funds that invest in overseas assets invest in foreign currencies, and changes in exchange rates will affect the net asset value of funds denominated in RMB, thus affecting the fund's income. QDII cannot ignore such risks.
Judging from the exchange rate of USD against RMB, the exchange rate fluctuates considerably.
Source: wind
Data interval: 2011.01~ 2021.12.
The above five risks can actually be classified as market risks.
6. Liquidity risk
Liquidity risk occurs when liquidity supply and demand are unbalanced. When the liquidity of assets becomes worse, it becomes difficult to buy and sell, and the expected price cannot complete the transaction within the expected time, the price fluctuation will become greater.
Liquidity risk may be local, individual products, or the whole market. Sometimes, local liquidity may also evolve into the liquidity of the whole market.
For example, when the 15 stock market plummeted, many people demanded to redeem the fund. Because the daily liquidity of the fund is insufficient, the fund manager is forced to sell a large number of stocks and bonds at a low level, the net value of the fund falls, and more people redeem it, resulting in a vicious circle of liquidity problems in the whole market.
Source: wind, Good Buy Fund Research Center.
Data interval: 20 15.04~20 16.04.
7. Credit risk
We often say that the default of XX bonds, inability or refusal to pay the due principal and interest, is a credit risk. Once there is credit risk, the bond evaluation will be lowered and the price will plummet.
For example, in 20 18, due to continuous thunder "1kloc-0/Katie MTN 1" and "15 Huaxin Debt", the net value plummeted by 30%. In 2020, due to "15 Huaxin Debt", Therefore, when we buy a bond fund, it is very important to look at the fund manager's credit risk screening ability and whether he has stepped on the thunder.
Source: wind
Data interval: 2014.01~ 2021.1.
8, enterprise fundamental risk
The credit risk just mentioned is aimed at bond investment. For stock investment, we should pay attention to the fundamental risks of enterprises.
The fundamentals of an enterprise include financial status, profit model, industry status, company culture and management, policy support and so on. When enterprises are poorly managed, have poor performance, have problems in corporate governance or face external policy shocks, they will have a negative impact on stock investment.
For example, in the past, LeTV rashly entered the fields of mobile phones, sports, automobiles, internet finance, etc. without obvious profit, and completely relied on huge capital to "accumulate". This kind of business behavior will inevitably lead to many problems in the later stage, and the final result is delisting.
Source: wind
Second, the long-term trend chart of various assets
Figure 1:
Source: wind, Good Buy Fund Research Center.
Data interval: from release date to 2020. 12.5438+0.
Figure 2:
Note: The real estate price is the Shanghai second-hand housing price index; A shares are the Shanghai Composite Index; Gold is COMEX gold; Class cash is a money market fund index; The bond is the CSI total bond index; The commodity is the South China Commodity Index.
Source: Fenghaomai Fund Research Center
Through these two pictures, we can get some thoughts:
In the long run, stocks are the best investment assets.
Assets are cyclical.
Do a good job in asset allocation, "the East is not bright and the West is bright"
Do you understand the risks of investment? The investment foundation is finished, and the next issue officially begins to talk about the knowledge of funds.