Heavy financial forecast 7-city housing prices will be released. Federal Reserve will announce interest rate resolution
Zhongxin Jingwei client September 13th (Xue Yufei) This week, the 22 Service Trade Fair closed in Beijing. What major financial events will affect your "money bag" next week (September 14-September 2)? Let's look ahead together!
data release
next week, China will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 7 large and medium-sized cities in August, hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy, and the domestic oil price adjustment window will open; Internationally, many major economies released CPI and PPI data, and the Federal Reserve announced interest rate resolutions.
Market Hotspots
First, the data of 7 cities will be released in August
On September 14th, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 7 large and medium-sized cities in August. According to the data in July, the real estate market prices in 7 large and medium-sized cities are generally stable, and the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in various cities have dropped from the previous month or the same as last month; The sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities increased slightly year-on-year, while the growth rates in second-and third-tier cities continued to fall.
second, the press conference on the operation of the national economy will be held
on September 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy, releasing monthly reports on industrial production above designated size, fixed assets investment (excluding farmers), real estate development and sales, total retail sales of social consumer goods and energy production.
according to Wind data, * * * there are 15 organizations that forecast the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in August, with the maximum forecast being a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, the minimum forecast being -.3%, and the average forecast being an increase of .6%; * * * Fifteen institutions predicted the growth rate of added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in August, with the maximum predicted growth rate of 6.5% year-on-year, the minimum 5.% and the average 5.4%.
III. Federal Reserve Announces Interest Rate Resolution in September
In the early morning of September 17th, Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference and announce the interest rate resolution in September. In addition, on September 15th, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, and on September 17th, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will announce the interest rate resolutions. On September 1th this year, the European Central Bank took the lead in announcing the interest rate resolution, keeping the three key interest rates unchanged.
At the regular monetary policy meeting held at the end of July this year, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds interest rate unchanged at -.25%, which was in line with market expectations. Powell said at that time that there was great uncertainty in the economic prospects of the United States, and whether the recovery could be achieved depended on whether the epidemic could be controlled.
iv. domestic oil price adjustment window will open
at 24: on September 18th, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. The latest oil price adjustment was on September 4th, and the adjustment ran aground because the average price in the first 1 working days on September 4th was less than that in the first 1 working days before August 21st, and the price adjustment amount was less than 5 yuan per ton. For the market outlook, Jinlianchuang analysts said at that time that the international crude oil may maintain a narrow range of shocks, most of which are restrained by fundamental factors, and the rebound momentum is insufficient, so it is difficult to have obvious support for the domestic refined oil market, and the price increase of refined oil products is limited.
since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have gone through 17 adjustments, including 11 stranding, 3 downward adjustments and 3 upward adjustments. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil have been reduced by 1,545 yuan/ton and 1,49 yuan/ton respectively. Among them, * * * failed to adjust the protection mechanism of "floor price" for 6 times.
V. Initial Meeting of Ant Group in science and technology innovation board
On September 18th, the IPO of Ant Group will be reviewed by the science and technology innovation board Stock Listing Committee of Shanghai Stock Exchange. From August 25th, when science and technology innovation board's application was accepted, to September 9th, when two rounds of inquiries were completed and the meeting was notified on September 18th that night, the listing review of Ant Group was faster.
according to the prospectus, from 217 to 219 and from January to June of 22, Ant Group achieved operating income of 65.396 billion yuan, 85.722 billion yuan, 12.618 billion yuan and 72.528 billion yuan respectively, and its net profit was 8.2 billion yuan, 21.56 billion yuan, 18 billion yuan and 21.923 billion yuan respectively.
VI. FTSE Russell newly included 15 A-shares
FTSE GEIS, the flagship index of FTSE Russell, will newly include 15 China A-shares, and some previously included A-shares will be classified and adjusted due to market value changes. This adjustment will take effect after the closing on September 18th (before the opening on September 21st).
Frontier of the stock market
I. Opportunities for new shares
Stocks to be listed and subscribed from September 14th to 2th. Source: wind
On September 14th, N Huawen (stock code: 3.SZ) will be listed. The company is a traditional flavor snack food enterprise, and its main business is the research, development, production and sales of traditional flavor snack foods such as flavored small fish and flavored dried beans.
On September 14th, Zhizhen Technology and Cape Testing will purchase; On September 15th, Zhongtian Rocket, Songyuan and Tongniu subscribed for information; On September 16th, Youcai Resources, Zhonggu Logistics, Xinjieneng, Xiamen Bank, Weishi Electronics, Ruoyuchen and Xinhai Technology subscribed; On September 17th, Changhua shares, Liren Lizhuang, Tianchen Medical, Shangwei New Materials and Aimeike subscribed; On September 18th, * * * Chuangcao and Shihua Technology subscribed.
Second, institutions look at the market
Founder Securities: Short-term fluctuations are difficult to change the medium-and long-term upward trend
The short-term market will also fall back, but the technical oversold will also give the market room to rebound, and the short-term market will challenge the 6-day pressure. Due to the serious technical oversold of the Growth Enterprise Market, there will be more room for rebound. At present, China's economy is in the cycle of "capital expansion", and the purpose of "capital expansion" is to realize the internal circulation of the economy, which is why short-term fluctuations are difficult to change the long-term upward trend of the market. In operation, when the effect of making money in the market is reduced and the market structure is not clear, it is suggested to wait and see first, resolutely avoid stocks with serious overdraft in the future, and be cautious about "junk stocks" and new stock speculation.
Open source securities: The market need not be pessimistic
Standing at the inflection point of global liquidity expectation, the market will show two characteristics, that is, all good news comes from profit repair brought by economic recovery, and all bad news comes from valuation pressure brought by liquidity and risk appetite, which creates conditions for coping with market uncertainty through structural adjustment.
In the current market adjustment, the "core assets" with higher foreign investment returns in the down cycle of real interest rate should be appropriately avoided, and the industries with "low valuation and pro-cyclical" should be mainly allocated, such as real estate, banking, coal and construction; There is no need to be pessimistic in the follow-up market, so we should prepare for the counterattack and lay out the joint forces of economic recovery in domestic and foreign transactions, such as building materials, chemicals and construction machinery.
Ping An Securities: The staged rebound momentum of the US dollar index has been significantly enhanced
The US dollar index began to decline on May 27th this year, and hit an intraday low of 91.7 on August 31st, during which the decline reached 8.1%, and the market's medium-and long-term pessimistic views on the US dollar emerged in a concentrated way. However, the short logic of the weakening of the US dollar has evolved fully. With the re-expansion of the relative advantage of the US economy, the monetary easing of the Federal Reserve tends to be stable, and the kinetic energy of the staged rebound of the US dollar index has been significantly enhanced. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact that this may bring to large-scale assets.
ping an securities said that the euro zone has taken a key step towards a unified fiscal union, and the chronic diseases in the American political and economic system reflected in this round of US presidential elections have indeed brought the possibility of a long-term weakening of the US dollar, but it is not appropriate to shorten the long logic and accelerate the slow variables. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, so you should be cautious when entering the market. )
Zhongxin Jingwei is copyrighted, and no unit or individual may reprint, extract or use it in other ways without written authorization.
Editor: Yu Wang