1. The elderly population has reached its peak, and the degree of aging continues to deepen.
There are two growth peaks in the population over 65 years old. The first growth peak is from 2018 to 2022, mainly due to the first "baby boom" population in New China, which entered the aging period during this period; the second growth peak is from 2018 to 2022.
The first growth peak is from 2027 to 2038, when the "baby boom" population after the "Great Famine" enters the aging stage.
2. The aging population structure is changing, and the phenomenon of aging is becoming increasingly prominent.
The elderly population is divided into young people under the age of 80 and old people over 80 years old.
The period from 2019 to 2038 is mainly due to the growth of the young elderly, who account for approximately 2/3 of the elderly population.
Starting from 2041, the number of very old people will grow rapidly, and their proportion will also increase rapidly.
From demographic dividend to population aging: The characteristics of my country's aging are inseparable from an important background, that is, since the reform and opening up for more than 40 years, the working-age population has continued to increase and the total dependency ratio has continued to decline.
The total dependency ratio refers to the proportion of the elderly and children (0-14 years old) who need to be dependent on the working-age population. In other words, it is how many elderly people who need to be taken care of and children who need to be supported by a working-age population.
In the early stages of aging, overall, the dependency ratio of children has declined, but the proportion of the elderly has begun to increase.
Judging from the population development trend, from 1960 to 2049, the total population peaked in approximately 2029, and then began to decline.
But our working-age population reached its peak as early as 2012 and has been declining for several years.
As a result, the dependency ratio, that is, the number of dependents per working population, has begun to rise.