Since July, the bull market of A shares and Hong Kong stocks has ignited the enthusiasm of investors, especially retail investors, and the number of accounts opened by major securities firms has soared. However, after more than half a month's carnival, the Hang Seng Index began to decline on July 7, and the Shanghai Composite Index also experienced a continuous decline since July 14.

On July 16th, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 4.5% in a single day, and the Hang Seng Composite Index also achieved the biggest one-day drop of 3.34% in the second half of the year. Therefore, many retail investors can't help but sigh: Did the bull market collapse just after opening an account? I lost money the next day after entering the market. Is this bull market going to "brake"?

Technology, essential consumption and medical stocks led the bull market

Looking at the market performance this year, most of the gains of A shares were concentrated in the two weeks after the Dragon Boat Festival. The Hang Seng Index rose slightly from the end of March to the beginning of April, and has also achieved a large increase since July.

Hong Hao, managing director and chief strategist of Bank of Communications International, also mentioned that during the two weeks after the Dragon Boat Festival, China Securities and Finance Company also lowered the margin requirements of securities firms because the central bank of China lowered the rediscount rate for the first time in 1 years, which was interpreted by the market as a tendency for the central bank of China to continue to relax. Among them, the news about relaxing the brokerage margin is also an important relaxation of the regulatory agencies since the bubble in 215.

However, the continuous decline of the Hong Kong stock market and the A-share market in recent days has poured cold water on investors' enthusiasm. Among them, on July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a "stock disaster level" decline, with a one-day decline of 4.5%, ranking 31 ST since 28. At the same time, the Hang Seng Composite Index of Hong Kong stocks fell by 3.34% in a single day on July 16th, ranking 68th since 28.

in fact, the so-called "bull market falls sharply, bear market falls overcast", and there are many cases of one-day sharp decline in several rounds of bull market in Hong Kong stocks over the years. Among them, during 23-27, the Hang Seng Composite Index * * * fell by more than 2% in 48 trading days, with the largest single-day drop of 4.89%, and fell by more than 4% in 6 trading days; In 29, July 213-June 215, and June 216-June 218, the number of trading days with a one-day decline of more than 2% also reached 22, 11 and 12 respectively.

Looking at the performance of the Hong Kong stock market since the middle and late June, the overall market value of various sectors of Hong Kong stocks increased by 13.88% from June 15th to July 6th. Among them, after the Dragon Boat Festival (June 3-July 6), the increase reached 9.4%.

since mid-June, the market value of all sectors of Hong Kong stocks has risen during this period. The top three sectors with growth rates are information technology, non-daily consumer goods and medical care, with growth rates of 21.85%, 18.71% and 15.8% respectively.

on July 7, the hang seng index began to decline. as of July 16, the overall market value of various sectors of hong kong stocks decreased by 3.32% compared with July 6. Among them, real estate, finance and energy became the top three sectors leading the decline during this period, with declines of 8.1%, 6.97% and 6.37% respectively.

For this market decline, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that the decline factors mainly include the rapid rise of the previous index and the accumulation of a large number of profit-making discs, and the emergence of adjustment signals in the market will lead to a lot of selling; Foreign capital has continued to flow out in the near future, taking profits, etc. In the face of this bull market trend, most institutions and analysts are still optimistic about the medium and long-term value of Hong Kong stocks.

Brokers are optimistic about the medium and long-term performance of Hong Kong stocks

Guosen Securities is optimistic about the market outlook of Hong Kong stocks. The bank believes that A/H shares will enter a full-scale bull market and will accelerate in the second half of 22. The HSI can expect 3,-33, points during the year, while maintaining the judgment that the HSI will stand at 4, points in 221.

Among them, Guosen Securities believes that, on the one hand, in order to deal with public health incidents and release a large amount of liquidity, the Fed needs to seek high-quality asset allocation around the world, and China can effectively control health incidents and achieve rapid economic recovery and growth, which will become the preferred destination for capital inflows.

Founder's strategy initially judged the sharp drop in the market as an adjustment in the bull market, and did not change the tone of the bull market. It believes that the adjustment in the bull market in history is more intense, mostly for layout opportunities. In the adjustment, we will focus on the allocation opportunities for the low-valued large financial sector to make up for the increase in stages and the long-term industrial trend evolution of the growth technology industry.

At the same time, Zhang Yidong, global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, believes that the current performance of HSI is in great contrast with the new economic structural market of Hong Kong stocks. Since the beginning of 219, Hang Seng information technology industry, health care industry and essential consumer industry have launched a vigorous market, while the Hang Seng Index has been dragged down by the excessive weight of financial real estate.

At present, Hong Kong stocks are actively changing the issuance system and index compilation rules, and the newly listed economic leaders are included in the Hang Seng Index, and the weight of the information technology industry in the Hang Seng Index will significantly jump to 24%; In the medium term, more qualified Chinese stocks went to Hong Kong for secondary listing, and even delisted from US stocks and returned to Hong Kong stocks; The proportion of information technology industry is expected to exceed that of finance by 4%, which will help the overall market value structure of Hong Kong stocks change from quantitative change to qualitative change and enter a new era driven by "new core assets".

GF Securities said that the exchange rate conditions of "weak dollar, strong Hong Kong dollar and RMB rebound" are conducive to the upward revision of capital inflows and profit expectations, and the market risk appetite has rebounded, and it continues to be optimistic about the medium-term bull market in Hong Kong stocks.

Hong Hao, managing director and chief strategist of Bank of Communications International, said in the research report in June that in the March plunge, the Hang Seng Index hit the low point of the current cycle, and this low point is unlikely to be broken, and both A shares and Hong Kong stocks have long-term investment value. Among them, A shares and Hong Kong stocks may also be affected by the bursting of the US growth stock bubble. But even if it is influential, value investors will not refuse a better price.

In addition, it also stated in its report in July that although there are still some technical details, the top-down policy is generally very supportive of the capital market. At the same time, its quantitative analysis shows that the degree of value stocks underperforming growth stocks has reached an historical extreme. Therefore, value stocks and cyclical stocks should start to outperform. For value investors, it is an opportunity for long-term layout.