Since 2020, there are only a handful of cities with rising house prices. In addition to going north to Shenzhen, housing prices in several strong second-tier cities such as Dongguan and Hangzhou have risen a lot. However, in addition, houses in other areas have hardly risen, and house prices in some areas have also declined. This can only explain one problem: the era when you can make money by buying a house nationwide with your eyes closed has passed. House prices in the future will be as different as in 2020. Cities with a large net inflow of population still have some investment space, but other cities are not necessarily. There are only two factors contributing to the rise in house prices. One is the increase caused by actual demand; The second is the rise caused by speculation.
The actual demand, that is, people's housing demand, has been largely met in recent years. In the stock crowd, either they have bought a house or they can't afford it, and stocks just need a little. What matters is the incremental demand. For example, young people who step into social work need to settle down and get married. They need housing. Therefore, in any city with a net inflow of young people, there is still room for housing prices to rise. Places with developed economy, rich resources and many jobs and employment opportunities will attract young people. Young people from small places go to big cities. Who will the house be sold to?
The second speculation that led to the rise in housing prices was almost cut off by the state. Generally speaking, the rise of the national property market is orderly. First, the first line rises, then the second line rises and then the small city. At present, the first-line or strong second-line housing prices are immediately suppressed by the property market regulation policy because of speculation, and the price increase cannot be transmitted to small cities, so small cities do not need to adopt stricter property market regulation policies.
Let's talk about the house price in Xi 'an. Xi 'an is definitely not a small city, but a top city in the western region. Chengdu and Chongqing, namely Chongqing and Chengdu, are the two cities with the greatest possibility of rising house prices in the western region. The city attraction of Xi is weaker than that of Chengdu and Chongqing. If you live in your own house, the problem is not big, but the investment pays attention to the rate of return. Even if the house price does not rise or only rises by 3%-5% every year, it is very uneconomical for the large investment cost.
People who bought funds last year can be said to have made a lot of money, mainly because of excessive currency issuance. In order to prevent the economy from falling too much because of the epidemic, the central bank also released a lot of water last year, which made the stock index and stock price rise a lot. However, with the stability of the epidemic, the pace of global water release will slow down or even tighten. This year's stock market may be difficult to present the grand occasion like last year, and the fund's yield will be discounted a little.
Relatively speaking, I still recommend investing in funds, and holding a good fund for a long time can still get relatively good returns. There are still many funds in the market that have doubled from 15 to 10. If you can buy a house for many years and then consider selling it, the result of holding the fund for a long time will be better than buying the house prices in most cities in China now.
Your question touched me very much. Let's take a look at the representative housing prices in Shenzhen in the last decade. 10, the house price in Shenzhen was 2. 1 10,000 square meters, and now it is 9. 1 10,000 square meters. In the past ten years, * * * has increased by about 4.5 times, which is a huge increase.
Let's look at the advanced manufacturing industry of Bank of Communications Schroeder established by 1 1, which (does not represent all funds) is 6 times that of1* * in the current decade. Is it amazing that the income of a single fund is much higher than the house price? Why is everyone talking about high housing prices? Why not talk about the current stock price?
Ten-year fund income exceeds ten years of Shenzhen real estate, but why many funds are losing money is actually very simple, just hold it for a long time. That's easy to say. The liquidity of funds is too high. After the fund is bought, the net value is changing every day. You can't help looking at this pile of data every day to see how much you earned today. If it falls for several days in a row, you can't help shaking it. The mobility of the house is poor. The house has only the buying and selling price. The holder didn't know and didn't pay special attention. To put it bluntly, you can't see it, buy it or live in it, or sell it in a few years. Therefore, it will create the illusion that the house will only rise and not fall, so don't care too much about the daily price, just watch it once a month.
When it comes to whether house prices will rise in the future, the 20-year peak of real estate has passed, and now the birth rate is declining. It should be unrealistic for Shenzhen to grow 4.5 times in the next decade. In the capital Xi, fighting inflation should not be a problem, even if you invest.
You know, in 2020, the world will release water, and real estate will be a big reservoir. Now that the country has suppressed the house, money can only flow into commodities. Now that the price of vegetables has risen, it will also flow to the stock market. This year's stock market is not as good as last year's, but it will not be too bad. I am satisfied that the rate of return may be lowered by 20 to 30 points this year.
In the selection of funds, we should choose those who have served for more than ten years and earned an annualized income of more than 20%. Because they have experienced more than ten rounds of bull market, the number of funds should not exceed 15.
If you forget to invest in housing, just take out 50% of your income and deposit the rest in the bank for future use. It was necessary to leave the necessary money at home during the epidemic last year.