Intern Li Xiaotong contributed to this article.
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China's official manufacturing PMI in March was 52%, expected to be 42.5%, and the previous value was 35.7%. The PMI of non-manufacturing industry was 52.3%, and the previous value was 29.6%.
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1, the resumption of work and production has accelerated, but both internal and external demand are weak, and expanding domestic demand is a top priority.
The impact of this epidemic has surpassed the global financial crisis in 2008, and we must make full preparations. As of March 3 1 day, the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide exceeded 800,000; In late February, the domestic epidemic situation was basically controlled, but the overseas epidemic situation began to break out in late February, and the United States, Italy, Spain, Germany and France became the hardest hit areas, with no turnaround yet. Some epidemiologists predict that the global epidemic will end in June, but some experts think it will span the New Year. If the epidemic situation is controlled in summer, it is an optimistic estimate, and the losses caused are relatively controllable; But if it lasts until the end of the year or even early next year, the global economic recession will be very intense, and the risk of bankruptcy and unemployment will be even greater.
The epidemic has triggered a global liquidity crisis, and deep economic recession is inevitable. The United States and Europe launched a large-scale stimulus plan, which exceeded the 2008 international financial crisis; The recession in Europe and America will be transmitted to China through external demand, industrial chain, capital flow, financial market, epidemic input and cross infection. From February to March 20th of 19, the stock markets of the United States, Britain, France and Germany all fell by more than 30%, and the US stocks melted down four times in 10, and bonds were also sold off. Liquidity crisis is usually the precursor of financial crisis. In this context, on March 15, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to "zero interest rate" and launched a $700 billion quantitative easing (QE) program. On March 23, it launched the "Unlimited QE" program, and on March 27, Trump signed the "2 trillion" economic stimulus bill. On March 12, the European Central Bank announced that it would increase its asset purchase plan by12 billion euros, and on March 18, it added 750 billion euros. On March 7, Britain announced a loan guarantee plan of 330 billion pounds, providing 20 billion pounds to support small businesses, and Germany adopted an economic stimulus plan of10.2 trillion euros on March 23.
The epidemic situation in China was controlled from May 438 to February, and production resumed from February to March. Judging from the calculation method of PMI index, PMI index = the percentage of "increase"+the percentage of "flat" ×0.5, so the sharp rebound of PMI in March only reflects the rapid recovery of economic activity compared with that in February. From a year-on-year perspective, economic activities are far from returning to normal levels. Since the middle and late February, economic activities have resumed rapidly. According to official data, as of March 28, the average operating rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 98.5%, and the rate of small and medium-sized enterprises returning to work was 76.8% on March 29. From the high-frequency data, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power plants in March returned to 80.8% of the same period last year; On March 30th, the national return rate was 8 1.6%, and the cumulative return rate was 70.5% (Unicom Smart Footprint). The urban congestion delay index has returned to about 82% of the same period of last year's lunar calendar (Gaode data). In this context, the PMI of manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries rose to 52% and 52.3% respectively in March, up by 16.3 and 22.7 percentage points respectively compared with February.
Specifically, the PMI data in March reflects five characteristics of the current economic situation: 1) demand recovery is weaker than production, both internal and external demand are weak, and external demand is worse; 2) Prices continue to fall, and economic deflation is obvious; 3) The company expects the chain to improve, but the inventory is overstocked; 4) Large, medium and small enterprises all improved month-on-month, but small and medium-sized enterprises are more difficult; 5) The recovery of service industry is weaker than that of manufacturing industry, and the recovery of construction industry is faster.
Returning to work does not mean resuming production, and the impact of the epidemic has led to a decline in both internal and external demand, especially in the life service industry and export-oriented enterprises. For example, according to the report of Meituan Research Institute, as of March 9, only 34.6% of the businesses were operating normally, but more than 85% of them had a turnover of less than 10% in the same period last year. Affected by overseas epidemics, export enterprises are currently facing difficulties such as order cancellation, production reduction and layoffs. In terms of employment, the urban unemployment rate climbed to a new high of 6.2% in February. In March, the PMI employee indices of manufacturing, service and construction industries were 50.9%, 46.7% and 53. 1% respectively, and employment in service industries was still shrinking.
At present, the main contradiction facing China's economy is insufficient total demand. The 327th meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC clearly expanded domestic demand, launched a "new" round of infrastructure, moderately relaxed monetary policy, and prevented a wave of large-scale bankruptcy and unemployment. We clearly put forward the initiative of "new infrastructure" (that is, "it is time to start a new round of infrastructure"), which will help to expand demand, stabilize growth and employment in the short term, and help to expand effective supply, release China's economic growth potential and improve people's livelihood and welfare in the long term.
Different from the academic school of hindsight, we have been pursuing forward-looking practical economics. In 20 19, it was put forward that "it is deflation after removing pigs" and "it is time to cut interest rates", which caused great controversy, but it was later verified by monetary policy to cut interest rates and reduce RRR. In the second half of 2065438+2009, faced with the popular views of "economic stabilization" and "inventory cycle recovery", it was put forward that "the severity of the current economic situation should be fully estimated" and "the foundation for economic stabilization is not solid". In late February 2020, it was put forward that "it is time to start a new round of infrastructure construction", which triggered a big market discussion and was later verified by the evolution of the situation.
Although the situation at home and abroad is extremely grim, we are faced with a once-in-a-lifetime historical opportunity.
Organic matter in danger:
1) Buy oil, stocks of high-tech companies in Europe and America, natural gas, etc. Now it is sold at a discount in the international market, either through sovereign wealth funds or through corporate mergers and acquisitions, and at the same time help countries and enterprises hit by the epidemic tide over the difficulties.
2) At the end of 2065438+08, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed new infrastructure, but at the beginning of 20 19, the economy was in Koharu, and the macro-economic environment did not start on a large scale. In 2020, affected by the global epidemic and the economic recession in Europe and America, China's economy is obviously lower than its potential growth rate. Starting a proactive fiscal policy with new infrastructure as the core and infrastructure making up for shortcomings is conducive to expanding short-term effective demand and long-term effective supply. Moreover, the cost of infrastructure construction is low, and the price of bulk commodities has dropped sharply, which is conducive to promoting employment.
3) Help Italy, Germany, Spain, Iran, South Korea and the United States. , hit hard by the epidemic. China is the largest manufacturer and producer of masks and alcohol in the world. With the gradual control of the domestic epidemic situation, we can appropriately export related materials, increase publicity and win the hearts of the international community. Marshall epidemic plan.
4) Accelerate the reform of emergency medical care, medical system, social governance, tax reduction and fee reduction, and multi-level capital market. It is easier to form reforms with the least resistance.
5) Do not get involved in right and wrong, do not get involved in geopolitical conflicts, and strive for strategic opportunities and time windows for national development.
3. Demand recovery is weaker than production, both internal and external demand are weak, and external demand is even worse.
In March, the manufacturing PMI was 52%, which was 16.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. By industry, 2 1 manufacturing has rebounded to varying degrees. Among them, the new kinetic energy rebounded rapidly, and the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry was higher than the whole. In terms of key areas, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries were 55.8%, 54.5% and 52.0% respectively, among which the PMI of high-tech manufacturing was 3.8 percentage points higher than that of manufacturing as a whole.
Demand recovery is weaker than production, both internal and external demand are weak, and the continuous fermentation of overseas epidemic has impacted China's exports. In March, the PMI production index was 54. 1%, up 26.3 percentage points from the previous month. The index of new orders and new export orders were 52.0% and 46.4%, respectively, up by 22.7 and 17.7 percentage points from last month.
The external demand is weak, the growth momentum of developed economies such as the United States and Europe is weakened, and the impact of overseas epidemics is superimposed. In March, the PMI of Markit manufacturing in the United States was 49.2%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the threshold; The PMI of the euro zone was 44.8%, a sharp drop of 4.4 percentage points from last month; As the locomotive of European economy, the PMI of German manufacturing industry was 45.7%, down 2.3 percentage points from last month.
The import index was 48.4%, up 16.5 percentage points from last month, and it was lower than the threshold for 2 1 month in a row, indicating that domestic demand was weak.
4. Prices continue to fall, and the risk of deflation increases.
The ex-factory price index in March was 43.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month; The purchase price index of major raw materials was 45.5%, down 5.9 percentage points from last month. The difference between the ex-factory price and the price index of raw materials narrowed from -7. 1 percentage point in February to-1.7 percentage point in March, indicating that the profit pressure of enterprises in the middle and lower reaches has improved compared with that in February, but the price drop has led to the continued pressure on the nominal profit growth of enterprises.
Recently, the prices of commodities such as oil have plummeted, and the risk of deflation has intensified. Recently, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States have been wrestling with each other on the oil issue, overlapping epidemics to combat global panic, and international oil prices have plummeted. In March, the average price of Brent crude oil was -40.0%, the price of industrial products in South China was -7.5%, and rebar was -7.8%.
5. The enterprise expects the chain to improve, but the inventory of finished products is overstocked.
The expected index of production and operation in March was 54.4%, up by 12.6 percentage points from last month; The purchasing volume index was 52.7%, up 23.4 percentage points from last month. In March, the raw material inventory index was 49%, up by 15. 1 percentage point from last month, indicating that the shortage of raw materials in the early stage was alleviated by smooth logistics. The inventory of finished products was 49. 1%, up 3 percentage points from last month, reflecting that although the demand has improved, it is still weak. At the same time, the index of economic kinetic energy (new orders-finished goods inventory) increased by 19.7 percentage points compared with last month.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, China has intensified its financial and monetary efforts, and the Politburo meeting emphasized the need to intensify macro-policy adjustment and implementation.
In terms of monetary policy, in March 1, the CBRC issued a document, giving the SMEs due from 65438+2020125 a certain period of deferred interest payment arrangements; The loan interest payment date can be extended to June 30, 2020 at the longest. On March 13, the central bank decided on March 16 to reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5- 1 percentage point for eligible banks, and raise it by 1 percentage point for eligible banks, releasing 550 billion yuan. On March 27th, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting emphasized that "a prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate, guide the downward interest rate in the loan market, and maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. It is necessary to give full play to the traction and leading role of financial policies such as refinancing, deferred repayment of principal and interest, dredge the transmission mechanism, ease financing difficulties, and provide accurate financial services for epidemic prevention and control, resumption of production and development of the real economy. " On March 30th, the bid rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase operation in the open market of the central bank was 2.20%, which was 2.40% before, with a downward trend of 20BP.
In terms of fiscal policy, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting on March 27th emphasized "appropriately raising the fiscal deficit ratio, issuing special government bonds, increasing the scale of local government special bonds, guiding the downward interest rate in the loan market, and maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity; It is necessary to implement various tax reduction and fee reduction policies and accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds. " According to the regulations of State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China, the time limit for filing tax returns in March is extended to March 23rd according to law, and the relevant provincial tax bureaus can also extend the time limit for filing tax returns according to law in areas that are still in the first-level response of epidemic prevention and control after the expiration, so as to further help enterprises alleviate the financial pressure.
6, large, medium and small enterprises have improved, but small and medium-sized enterprises are more difficult.
Large enterprises are better than small and medium-sized enterprises in production, demand and business expectation. In March, the PMI indexes of large, medium and small enterprises were 52.6%, 5 1.5% and 50.9%, respectively, which were 16.3, 16.0 and 16.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, respectively, which were on the line of prosperity and decline. In terms of production, the indexes of large, medium and small enterprises were 55.3%, 53.5% and 5 1.6%, respectively, which were 27.0, 25.4 and 25.5 percentage points higher than that of last month. In terms of demand, the new order indexes of large, medium and small enterprises were 53.2%, 565, 438+0.4% and 49.7%, respectively, up by 23, 22.65, 438+0 and 22.9 percentage points from last month. The index of new export orders of large, medium and small enterprises was 47.3%, 44.2% and 46.3%, which were up by 17.8, 18. 1 and 15.3 percentage points respectively. From the perspective of business expectations, the production and business expectations of large, medium and small enterprises are 55.5%, 52.5% and 54%, respectively, which are 1 1.2, 12.5 and 16.6 percentage points higher than last month.
7. The recovery of service industry is weaker than that of manufacturing industry, and the recovery of construction industry is faster.
In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, up 22.7 percentage points from the previous month; New orders and new export orders were 49.2% and 38.6%, respectively, up by 22.7% and 1 1.8% compared with last month, both below the threshold, reflecting that the decline of new orders and new export orders in non-manufacturing industries slowed down compared with last month.
The recovery of service industry is weaker than that of manufacturing industry, and the life service industry is more difficult. The business activity index of service industry was 565,438 0.8%, up by 265,438 0.7 percentage points from last month. Among the 2 1 industries surveyed, except the securities industry, all other industries have rebounded to varying degrees. 1) The business activity index of transportation, retail, banking and other industries is relatively high. 2) The business activity index of life service industry is 50.2%, which is lower than the overall index of service industry 1.6 percentage points. Accommodation, catering, tourism, residents' service, culture, sports and entertainment industries are greatly affected by the epidemic. According to the investigation report of Meituan, as of March 9th, 65.4% of the comprehensive merchants were closed, only 34.6% of them were in normal business, and those who returned to work were in poor business condition, 74.5% of them had almost no transactions, and1.5% of them had a turnover of19 in the same period. Only 1.3% of the merchants' turnover was the same as that of 20 19, and 0.4% of the merchants' turnover exceeded that of 20 19.
The construction industry recovered quickly, reflecting the progress of returning to work and the expectation of infrastructure construction. The index of business activities and new orders in the construction industry was 55. 1% and 48.4%, respectively, up by 28.5 and 24.6 percentage points from last month. From the perspective of labor demand and market expectation, the index of employees in the construction industry and the expected index of business activities are 53. 1% and 59.9%, respectively, which are 20.8 and 18. 1 percentage point higher than last month. The number of enterprises returning to work has increased month by month, and confidence has recovered. 20 1 9165438+1On October 27th, the Ministry of Finance issued the new special debt limit for some local governments in 20201trillion yuan in advance. On February 1 1, 2020, the Ministry of Finance issued a new local government debt limit of 848 billion yuan again. On March 27th, 2020, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference mentioned "issuing special government bonds and special local government bonds", which will be mainly used for infrastructure construction and tax reduction. With the issuance of special bonds in place, the resumption of large-scale projects will accelerate, and the second quarter will usher in the peak of infrastructure.