Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, told the Securities Daily reporter that with the transformation of the net value of wealth management products, the bond market and the stock market fluctuated this year, so the net value of bank wealth management products also fluctuated greatly, which was obviously less attractive to customers with lower risk appetite. It is more difficult for banks to issue and sell products, and the number of new and on-sale bank wealth management products has decreased. In addition, the overall yield of the bond market has been declining since this year, and the financial yield with debt assets as the main allocation content will also drop sharply.
Number of new products and products on sale
Double drop from the previous month
Since 2022, the performance of bank wealth management products has been poor, and the downward trend of circulation has been continuing. According to the data released by Puyi Standard, in June 5438+ 10, the number of new wealth management products and wealth management products on sale in the bank wealth management market showed a downward trend, and the downward trend of performance benchmark continued. In June, 5438+ 10, a new wealth management product 1705 was issued in the whole market, with a decrease of 24.05% from the previous month. Among them, the wealth management company * * newly issued 5 14 wealth management products, a decrease of 32.55% from the previous month.
1 1 month, the number of new and on-sale bank wealth management products continued to decline. According to Puyi standard data, last week (165438+1October14-165438+1October 20th), 493 new wealth management products were issued in the whole market, a decrease of 37 from the previous month. Among them, wealth management companies issued 154 wealth management products, a decrease of 19 from the previous month, accounting for 3 1.24% of the total circulation of wealth management products in the market. Last week, the market sold 375 1 model of wealth management products, a decrease of 7 1 model from the previous month, of which 1.702 model of wealth management company products accounted for 45.37%.
Du Yang, a postdoctoral fellow at China Banking Research Institute, said in an interview with Securities Daily that the new development of bank wealth management products and the double decline in the number of products on sale are mainly affected by demand and supply. From the demand side, performance fluctuations have intensified, investors' demand for wealth management products has decreased, and issuers have adjusted the number of products accordingly. From the supply side, the new asset management regulations have been implemented, and the wealth management business has entered a stage of high-quality development. The decline in the number of new products is affected to some extent by the extension of the average term of wealth management products.
It is worth noting that after the "net-breaking tide" in the market in June 5438+065438+ 10, many bank financial institutions adjusted their new products. The reporter found out that on the one hand, the number of wealth management products with long investment period has increased significantly, on the other hand, some banks have adjusted the redemption management rules of products. For example, CMB Finance shortened the redemption opening time of one of its products.
The financial manager of China Merchants Bank told the reporter that shortening the redemption opening time of products is mainly to avoid the net value fluctuation caused by the long redemption period, and also to reduce the losses of investors.
Du Yang said that a series of adjustments made by banks and financial institutions are an important means for issuers to reasonably cope with fluctuations in net worth. At present, the A-share market fluctuates greatly for many reasons. By flexibly adjusting the product term and redemption rules, wealth management companies can help smooth the fluctuation of wealth management market to the greatest extent, which is conducive to the long-term development of wealth management business.
In Ming Ming's view, wealth management products that shorten the redemption opening time and lengthen the closed period do not need to cope with the redemption pressure in the closed period, nor do they have a lot of diluted subscription income, with less idle funds and high capital utilization efficiency. At the same time, the debt base with a long closed operation period has more leverage space, which is helpful to improve the overall income level.
In addition, from the performance benchmark, since the beginning of this year, the average performance benchmark of new and on-sale wealth management products in the whole market has dropped significantly. Du Yang told reporters that since the beginning of this year, the fluctuation adjustment of the capital market has increased the uncertainty of the income of wealth management products to some extent. Moderately lowering the performance benchmark reflects the active management ability of banks and wealth management subsidiaries, and appropriately lowering investors' income expectations will help cushion the impact brought by market fluctuations and protect investors' legitimate rights and interests.
Future circulation and interest rate
There is still room for redemption.
Recent bond market fluctuations triggered the adjustment of the net value of bank wealth management products. According to the Puyi standard report, due to the fluctuation of the bond market, the income of bank wealth management products also declined, with the cumulative net value dropping by over 0. 14% on average compared with last month (10), and even nearly 10% of products broke the net this month (the unit net value was less than 1). Among them, the income of wealth management products of major investment bonds dropped significantly, but the fluctuation was better than that of pure debt funds as a whole.
In view of the phenomenon of "breaking the net" of bank wealth management products, insiders pointed out that it is normal for the net value of bank wealth management products to fluctuate after they are completely net. Liu Yinping, an analyst at Rong360 Digital Technology Research Institute, believes that the inflection point of the bond market has not yet appeared, but the market sentiment has been fully released. With the gradual adjustment of the rate of return, the attractiveness of bonds increases, and funds enter the market to gradually repair the market. This fluctuating trend will not last long.
How should individual investors respond? Ling Jiang, a researcher at Puyi Standard, said that investors should treat the fluctuation of net worth rationally. Short-term market fluctuation can't represent the final income level after the product expires. They can hold the product for a long time and wait for the market to repair it. On the whole, bank wealth management products have certain advantages in retracement and fluctuation control, and still have liquidity allocation value when the market stabilizes.
Talking about the issuing trend of bank wealth management products in the future, Du Yang believes that the long-term positive fundamentals of China's macro economy have not changed, and the capital market will maintain a steady development trend. In the long run, the issuance of wealth management products is expected to return to normalization, the interest rate level will rebound greatly, and the development quality of wealth management business will be further improved.
"In the short term, there is still pressure on the issuance of wealth management products, and the fluctuation of net value is still greatly affected by the market; In the long run, with the exploration of different needs of investors, banks will provide richer product systems and differentiated services, the wealth management market will continue to expand, the operation of wealth management companies will be more mature and market-oriented, and the rate of return is expected to be more stable. " Clearly said.
Xue Hongyan, vice president of Xingtu Finance Research Institute, told reporters that from a long-term perspective, the wealth management of deposits is a general trend, and the issuance scale of bank wealth management products shows an overall expansion trend. At the same time, with the improvement of the management ability of bank wealth management products, the wealth management yield will continue to outperform the deposit interest rate with a high probability, thus accelerating the transfer of deposit funds to wealth management products.