Last week, the overall volatility of the A-share market declined, with obvious structural differentiation characteristics. Since the end of October, the market has rebounded under the influence of positive changes in domestic policies, but the recent fluctuations have increased. Stylistically, the fields related to steady growth and state-owned banks performed well, but the growth style did not perform well.

in this regard, this week's institutional view is that the market has had more characteristics of partial bottom in the early stage, and the A-share repair market is still in the first half, but the pace of short-term repair has slowed down. Moreover, near the end of the year, the market pays more attention to the policy trend, and it is expected that the market with dominant large-cap stocks and dominant value style will continue to be interpreted.

how do you view the rise of "Chinese prefix" stocks?

the heavyweights represented by "Chinese prefix" in the A-share market generally performed well last week. "China characteristic valuation system" has become a hot topic in the market. Under the catalysis of news, the market's enthusiasm for "Chinese prefix" stocks has been ignited.

China Securities Co., Ltd. said that under the background of industrial structure transformation and upgrading, state-owned enterprises, as the "ballast stone" of China's steady economic growth, will have advantages in profit distribution, thus promoting the performance of related listed companies to be realized. However, CITIC Jiantou Securities stressed that from the analysis of the current market situation, perhaps investors' preference for "low-end assets" is the real reason behind the rise of "Chinese prefix" stocks. Whether it is the previous Xinchuang, medicine, or recent real estate, construction and other directions, its valuation cost performance is in line with the "low" characteristics.

At the same time, since this round of rebound, the growth performance of the broader market represented by the active partial stock funds, such as the "Dianxin" sector, is particularly weak. CITIC Jiantou Securities said that this reflects that the current market is still a stock game pattern, and investors favor "low-level assets" as the core feature.

guohai securities said that in retrospect, the strength of the "Chinese prefix" index has a strong linkage with the reform of state-owned enterprises. However, it is worth noting that the excess returns of concept stocks related to the reform of state-owned enterprises basically appear in the slow bull or bear market period, while the concept of state-owned enterprise reform is weak in the bull market period.

guohai securities believes that under the background of increasing current policies and reform expectations, investors can consider the layout of the "Chinese prefix" index from a thematic perspective in stages, and it is recommended to pay attention to two main lines, one is the core infrastructure field of the "Chinese prefix" index, and the other is scientific and technological innovation and ESG direction.

The second wave of growth in the year is still on the way

Looking forward to the market outlook, CITIC Securities said that the current fundamentals and the trend of mid-term market repair are highly clear, but investors still have great differences on the pace and risk of repair. With loose liquidity and low active capital positions, the trading characteristics of A-shares are still obvious.

citic securities predicts that a new steady state of normalized prevention and control will be formed after the epidemic prevention measures are optimized throughout the country in December. The steady growth policy and clear policy objectives for next year will continue to lay a solid foundation for medium-term economic recovery and help to form a new steady state of economic recovery. At the same time, the improvement of internal and external liquidity is also an important support for the mid-term market valuation repair. Therefore, the current A-share comprehensive repair market is still in the policy-driven first half, but the short-term repair pace has slowed down.

Haitong Securities also believes that there have been some twists and turns in the market recently, but the policy of steady growth is still overweight, and the second wave of the market in the year since October is still on the way. "Looking at it in the longer term, A shares are currently very cost-effective from a cyclical perspective."

Haitong Securities said that from the historical experience, the valuation level of A shares has obvious cyclical characteristics. At present, a series of indicators such as the ratio of stock to debt income and the risk premium rate are at the bottom of the cycle. Behind the cycle of A-share valuation is the cycle of economic cycle. At present, China's economy is moving towards the early stage of recovery, and the future trend of A-shares is still improving.

"New Year's Market" enters the layout period

In addition, near the end of the year, investors are generally concerned about a question: How will the A-share market be interpreted at the end of the year and the beginning of the year?

western securities believes that the core logic of the new year's market of a shares over the years comes from three aspects: first, the credit impulse at the beginning of the year promotes the abundant macro liquidity of the market; Secondly, the profit expectation switch brought by the macro data vacuum period from January to February; Thirdly, the market's longing for the new year has brought about an increase in market risk appetite.

Anxin Securities has re-listed the market from 23 to the end of the year, and thinks that A shares tend to be dominated by large-cap stocks and value style at the end of the year and the beginning of the year.

Essence Securities said that the year-end is a stage of intensive introduction of policies, investors' emotions will be fully mobilized, and the market's expectations for the next year will be repeatedly played. Therefore, the market opportunity at the end of the year is better than that at the beginning of the next year. The average yield of the Shanghai Composite Index in December is 2.75%, and the average yield in January is -.92%. On the structural level, the value style is often better than growth in the New Year's market, the performance of large-cap stocks is better than that of small-cap stocks, and the style of big finance and consumption is dominant.

western securities said that from the situation in 222, the market is expected to pay more attention to the macro level; In terms of liquidity, the central bank's wide credit rhythm is later than last year; In terms of policy expectation, the core concerns of this year's policy are the restoration of real estate chain, the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policy and the information security industry. Therefore, compared with last year, this year's "New Year's Market" started later, but it will last longer and have stronger efforts to repair, and its style will be more value-oriented.