: First, in the fixed investment, is timing important?
1 First of all, we need to make it clear that history does not predict the future. For example, suppose a coin is thrown four times in a row. What are the chances of being a tattooed face every time? If you have thrown it three times, and all of them are fancy faces, what is the probability of throwing it at the fancy face for the fourth time?
2. Obviously, the answer to the first question is116, while the answer to the second question is 1/2. Why is the difference so big? This is because what has happened and what has not happened are independent events and will not affect each other! Similarly, let's put it in the stock market and imagine a pentahedron coin designed for Monday to Friday. The previous times happened to be the lowest point of the stock market on Thursday (or any day), giving you a psychological hint that Thursday is the best time to vote.
3, can that guarantee that the lowest point in the future will also be on Thursday? The answer is not necessarily. Because the events that have happened have no influence on the future, any day may become the lowest point of the next fixed investment cycle, and we can't make predictions about the future. What if we are very lucky and can buy at the lowest point almost every time? Let's not talk about how high this possibility is. Let's take a look at how much money you made after each accurate bargain-hunting. Not much to say, take the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 as an example to simulate,
4. There are two main strategies: strategy 1: invest on a fixed date every week, such as investing 1000 yuan every Wednesday; Strategy 2: Take five days as a cycle, choose the highest point or lowest point in the cycle to invest a sum of 1000 yuan, and use this situation to simulate the "fairy prediction". What is the simulation result? Nannan put the data map in the text version, and interested Nanfen can refer to it. It is not difficult to see that when we make a fixed investment on a fixed date, there is not much difference in the yield of the fixed investment, that is to say, we spend too much energy on this day of the week, but the result is not much difference.
5. Secondly, let's take a look at buying at the highest point of the cycle and buying at the lowest point of the cycle. The simulation data shows that the highest buying rate is 19.37% and the lowest buying rate is 22.88%, with little difference. Similarly, the yield of fixed investment on a fixed date is not much different.