We recommended you to pay attention to the CS New Energy Vehicle Index and related index funds in March.

Later, when the Kechuang 5ETF was depressed in May, we recommended you to pay attention to the Kechuang 5 Index and the chip semiconductor industry.

Recently, these two industries have become the hottest "track" in the market, and the cumulative increase is also considerable.

But for the long-term future prospects of these two industries, The market debate is also extremely fierce.

Yesterday, we sent a simplified picture, mainly to say that the recommendation for these two industries has come to an end temporarily since yesterday.

During this period, investors who have not held stocks or funds in related industries will no longer be recommended to rush in.

For investors who have already held stocks and funds in related industries, they can continue to hold them and decide on the follow-up operation.

So today's update mainly talks about the nature of the industry and the feedback of the market to the development cycle of the industry.

Why should we suspend the recommendation of these two industries?

We have said before that "lack of core" and "lack of core" have a positive effect on the chip industry.

So we pay great attention to and actively participate in the science and technology innovation board index with a high content of "core".

In fact, the chip industry is a two-level industry with serious differentiation.

The independent strategy and "lack of core" just affect the two levels in this industry.

We were "stuck in the neck" before. At present, the main efforts to seek autonomy are high-end chips used in high-end mobile phones and PCs.

Therefore, the market has paid great attention to the chip industry because of the autonomy strategy.

That wave of market mainly occurred in early 219-July 22, and

After that, the whole industry experienced a wave of substantial adjustments. It wasn't until we stepped back on the weekly MA99 moving average,

encountered the influence of "lack of core" again, and the funds withdrawn from other holding stocks were held in the chip industry,

only had the accelerated rising market in recent months. After these two rounds of rising, the valuation of the whole industry has been relatively high.

However, some investors still think that the chip industry is high-tech, and it is normal for the chip industry to have a high valuation.

If China makes a thorough breakthrough in high-end chips, how high the valuation can be.

But let's make a calm horizontal comparison. The current valuation of chip companies that have mastered advanced processes in the world,

Qualcomm and Snapdragon chip manufacturers in the United States have a P/E ratio of 18 times and a P/B ratio of 21 times, with a total market value of 169 billion US dollars;

Intel, with a P/E ratio of 12 times and a P/B ratio of 2.6 times, has a total market value of $217.9 billion;

AMD has a price-earnings ratio of 38 times and a price-to-book ratio of 18 times, with a total market value of $128.8 billion.

We can clearly see that the valuation of the world's top chip companies is not high according to the valuation of technology stocks in US stocks.

It is not given according to the valuation of emerging industries or technology industries, but according to the valuation of high-end manufacturing industries.

Let's look at the chip-related listed companies in China.

North Huachuang has a P/E ratio of 368 times and a P/B ratio of 32 times, with a total market value of 214.5 billion yuan;

SMIC has a P/E ratio of 14 times and a P/B ratio of 5.1 times, with a total market value of RMB 26.4 billion;

Zhongwei Company has a P/E ratio of 234 times and a P/B ratio of 11 times, with a total market value of 141.4 billion RMB.

We can clearly see that the head enterprises in China's chip industry,

their valuations are at a relatively high level according to the high-tech enterprises,

the more mature the products in high-tech industries are, the valuation level will change from prospect valuation to growth valuation or even traditional valuation,

You can do some calculations. If the valuation level of China's chip industry is in line with international standards, If the high-end manufacturing industry is valued at 2-25 times,

with these chip-related enterprises at present, to what extent can the net profit level support the current total market value and stock price?

If high-end chips in China make a thorough breakthrough, domestic mobile phones and PCs will definitely give priority to using "China Core",

But it will not increase the total demand for high-end chips in the world.

To put it bluntly, we will carve up the stock market occupied by international giants after the breakthrough, and will not drive a brand-new incremental market.

We will trace the periodic bubbles and irrational overvaluation in the prospect valuation period by certain technical analysis methods.

Just like we are holding science and technology innovation board with a high content of "core" now,

But we will not regard the current valuation and situation as a long-term future.

Before the tuyere period is about to pass, we will quit appropriately and enter it when it becomes a growth one.

when the growth fades, we will quit, and after it becomes a traditional value stock or a cyclical stock,

we will enter again in the same way as traditional value stocks or cyclical stocks.

because all industries can't be in the emerging period forever, they will enter the growth stage and maturity stage sooner or later.

The "lack of core" is mainly manifested in the low-end chips, which we have little technical problem.

However, enterprises are entangled in the long-term input-output ratio.

That is to say, the recent "lack of core" is caused by the epidemic situation and the short-term market demand growth.

This situation is a bit like the peak of delivery in the Spring Festival and Golden Week that the transportation department has to deal with every year.

If the transportation department lays infrastructure and runs trains according to the demand of the Spring Festival and the Golden Week,

During the Spring Festival and the Golden Week, it can really increase the income, and also alleviate the contradiction that the market is in short supply.

However, during most of the non-Spring Festival and the Golden Week, it has to bear a heavy expenditure burden.

The investment in expanding the production capacity of low-end chips is very high, but the competition in the whole industry is fierce and the profit margin is thin.

Therefore, relevant enterprises have been hesitant about rapidly expanding the production capacity.

If they want to pass on the cost through price increase, the pressure on enterprises using low-end chips will increase,

This is a situation that neither the country nor consumers want to see. Therefore, the production capacity is slower than the market expectation, < P > and even if the production capacity is exerted, the long-term income growth is not as big as investors think.

Therefore, at the current valuation level, we are uncertain about the breakthrough situation of high-end chips, and in the case of uncertain profit expansion and profit margin increase of low-end chips,

we can only change from the previous trend opportunity recommendation to a cautious and conservative state,

In the short term, as long as the chip industry index does not get out of a clear head shape temporarily,

investors holding relevant stocks and funds can continue to follow up and observe, and there are abnormal situations.

After the chip industry, let's look at the trend chart of an industry index.

Looking at the trend chart of this industry index, many investors' first reaction will think that this new energy vehicle industry,

actually, it is not. This industry index is the high-speed rail industry index from 21 to 215.

this is the CS new energy vehicle industry index. is there a high similarity between the two trends?

We talked about the differences among the three schools of value investment before.

Prospect value-growth value-traditional value seem to be three directions with great differences.

But it is very likely that these three schools of investors are optimistic about the same stock in different things.

The typical representative is the high-speed rail industry. In 211, the market regarded high-speed rail as a strategic emerging industry.

The market expects it as much as today's new energy vehicles and photovoltaics.

The stock prices of all stocks related to high-speed rail have risen sharply.

However, in the following years, the revenue of the high-speed rail industry did not reach a state where investors rushed to its expected broad prospects.

So the whole industry was cold and depressed for a long time. At that time, it was miserable to chase the high-speed rail as a "track".

Later, during the bull market in 214-215, China South Locomotive and CNR merged into CRRC,

It suddenly ignited a new round of market expectations for this industry,

At the same time, the internal consumption of the industry decreased, the high-speed rail construction entered an accelerated period, and the profitability of the high-speed rail industry entered a growth period.

The market gave a very high enthusiasm based on its growth and market popularity.

So there was a crazy increase in that big bull market.

In these two stages, the market valued the first two words of high-speed railway-high-speed.

Compared with the previous ordinary railway, the high-speed railway looks very strong in scientific and technological attributes.

The market takes it as an emerging industry and a scientific and technological industry to predict and evaluate its prospects.

However, with the end of the bull market in 215, high-speed rail became more and more popular.

It was finally discovered that high-speed rail is also a railway, and it was finally valued according to the transportation industry.

CRRC, which produces trains, is no longer valued according to the scientific and technological attributes, but according to the general manufacturing industry.

This is also the reason why the share price of high-speed rail industry represented by CRRC in China has been depressed for a long time in recent years.

the prospect value school likes the high-speed rail in 211, the growth value school likes the high-speed rail in 214, and the traditional value school is interested in the high-speed rail now.

To put it bluntly, the three schools don't like three different stocks, but they like the same stock with different life cycles.

In the same way, new energy vehicles are speculating about the scientific and technological attributes represented by the word new energy at this stage.

But in the final analysis, new energy vehicles are still automobiles, and they should be valued according to the valuation level and market capacity of the automobile industry sooner or later.

at this stage, the photovoltaic industry is speculating about the cost reduction caused by technological breakthroughs and the support and encouragement of policies.

The future may be the prospect of nationwide popularization, but what is the photovoltaic industry in the final analysis?

it's just a way to generate electricity, and ultimately it has to obey the valuation and logic of the power industry.

does the new energy vehicle open a brand-new space without ceiling and upper limit outside the traditional fuel vehicle?

Obviously not. New energy vehicles still have to compete with fuel vehicles and eat the stock market of car ownership.

The total automobile market in China is the ultimate ceiling of new energy vehicles, and it can also win some market share from overseas markets if it is done well.

Just like the high-speed rail that helped the transportation industry to open up new growth space,

it is still limited by the ceiling of the final total demand of the transportation industry.

the ultimate ceiling of photovoltaic and clean energy is also the total electricity consumption in China.

At this stage, the market gives these industries high valuations, except for the reasons of liquidity in the market.

The main reason is that they are still far from their ceilings, and the imagination space is relatively large, and the industries are also in a period of rapid growth.

But obviously, excessive valuations will not last forever, and the more they develop, the closer they are to the essential characteristics of the industries rather than the emerging attributes.

This is just like the housing price. The housing price in the residential area that was originally closed to the subway is not high.

Once there is a rumor that the planned subway will take a major route, the price will start to increase, and the rumor will really go up again.

It will go up again when the planning starts, but it will rise to the top when the high-speed rail is built downstairs and opened to traffic.

So, let's keep a moderate calm about the short-term boom of the above industries.

Don't get hot-headed just because of the short-term increase. After all, the tragic lesson of chasing liquor before the Spring Festival is not far away.