The reform from audit system to registration system is a revolutionary breakthrough in China securities market, which directly benefits securities companies. With the substantial increase in the number of listed companies, investment banking is expected to become the most profitable piece again.
Second, the asset securitization filing system.
Developing asset securitization business can revitalize the stock, which is beneficial to the real economy and also helps brokers optimize their transformation business. This business is encouraged by the regulatory authorities, welcomed by securities companies, and has great room for development.
Third, the regulatory authorities issued a document requesting supplementary capital brokers to add leverage space.
Leverage promotion is the biggest comparative advantage of securities firms. It is estimated that the net leverage ratio of securities firms will increase from the current level of 2.7 times to 5-6 times in the next 1-2 years, the net profit of securities firms will increase by more than 60% in 20 14 years, and 20-25% in 20 15 years. The profit growth rate in 20 15 years is still compared with other industries.
Four. SSE: T+0 recovery conditions have been met.
If it is realized, the commission will double.
5. Continue to issue new shares.
The smooth IPO also makes the investment banking business of securities firms go smoothly, which is good for the performance of securities firms.
Sixth, the expansion of the New Third Board and the market maker system will benefit brokers.
Take the New Third Board Market Maker as an example. On August 25th, the market-making transfer transaction of the New Third Board was officially launched, and 66 brokers were qualified for market-making. At present, there are more than 1000 new three boards. According to the current progress, it will exceed 3000 by 2065,438+06, and it is expected to exceed 10000 later.
Seven, the two major financial services developed rapidly.
By the end of 20 14 and 10, the balance of the two financing was 702.4 billion yuan, an increase of 9124.6 billion yuan compared with the end of last month, and the growth rate was continuously enlarged compared with the 87.4 billion yuan in September, with an increase of 14.93% compared with the previous month. The third quarterly report of brokers shows that the rapid growth of capital intermediary business such as margin financing and securities lending is the main driving force to boost the performance of listed brokers in the third quarter.
8. Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was officially opened;
The performance of the brokerage industry continues to improve and so on.
Nine, the proportion of direct financing in economic transformation will continue to increase.
Economic transformation needs capital market innovation, the income of brokerage investment bank/new third board/direct investment business increases, investors' risk preference for brokerage stocks increases, and brokerage stocks will usher in a "Davis" double click.
Ten, the road to universal investment bank:
Driving force: The proportion of direct financing in economic transformation will continue to increase. Since 2009, the proportion of direct financing in China has shown a downward trend. The proportion of direct financing in 20 13 years is less than 45% (according to the data of CSRC), while the proportion in major developed countries in the world is in the range of 65-75%, and that in the United States is over 80%. Economic transformation needs capital market innovation.
Molecules: brokerage investment bank/new third board/direct investment business will increase income. Assuming that the proportion of direct financing will increase by 65,438+00 percentage points in 2065,438+05, it is estimated that the proportion of stock and bond financing will reach 4 trillion yuan.
Denominator: Investors' risk preference for brokerage stocks has increased. Reform has promoted economic transformation, and investors' confidence in reform has increased. As the most beneficial investment target, industrial capital favors brokerage stocks.
The transformation of the "new economy" in the United States has promoted the rise of universal investment banks.
After 1980s, the American capital market made innovations to supply blood for the "new economy". The proportion of indirect financing decreased, while the proportion of direct financing increased, and the growth rate of bond issuance was much higher than that of loans. At the same time, financial innovation promotes the expansion of M&A scale, and M&A funds are surging.
The marketization of interest rates and rates forced financial institutions to innovate, and non-bank financial institutions such as all-round investment banks and PE stood out. The representative machines are Dechong Securities, which is famous for issuing junk bonds, Mei Duo Securities, which focuses on wealth management business, and KKR, which is a PE machine.
During the bull market of South Korea's economic transformation, brokerage stocks rose first and then fell.
After Korea 1997 financial crisis, the economic crisis forced reform. Although the GDP growth rate dropped by half and the risk-free rate of return fell to 4%, the Korean stock market entered a bull market from 1999.
During the industrial transformation, during the bull market in South Korea, brokerage stocks performed the best, with the highest increase of about 4 times. During this period, brokers such as Samsung Securities (Universal Investment Bank) and Kiwoom (Internet Brokers) all increased by more than 10 times.
Take Samsung Securities as an example, vigorously develop derivatives trading and wealth management, and constantly optimize its business structure. After 2005, the proportion of capital intermediary and investment business of Samsung Securities increased. In 2007, the proportion of commission business decreased to about 30%, interest income accounted for about 20%, and trading business accounted for 50%.
XI。 Internet finance/state-owned enterprise reform/deregulation
Internet finance: Join hands with Internet giants to build a trading platform, from traffic discovery to rack reconfiguration.
Reform of state-owned enterprises: encouraging real equity incentives/employee stock ownership will be the focus of work, and there is great room for improving the management efficiency of securities firms.
Innovation policy: 20 15 The policies worth looking forward to include the restoration of the basic functions of securities firms, the revision of the securities law, and the introduction of new financing/trading tools.
Twelve, four major innovations: brokerage and credit transactions/multi-level capital market construction/wealth management/mergers and acquisitions.
Brokers: The trading volume is worry-free, and the downward trend of commission rate slows down.
Credit transaction: the scale is expected to double, and the spread will rise instead of falling.
Investment Bank: The New Third Board welcomes golden development, and M&A is expected to break out.
Asset management: Residents' wealth is shifting from banks/houses.
Xiii. The turnover drove the commission to increase substantially.
The current level of 800 billion can lead to a substantial increase in commissions.
Fourteen Futures trade
Most brokers have futures companies.
Can it not be red?