Since 20 19, A shares have rebounded in stages, especially after the Spring Festival. Driven by positive stocks, the convertible bond market has also achieved gratifying gains. Based on the closing price of the first trading day of 20 19, the cumulative increase since the beginning of the year is calculated. As of February 15, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 8.8 1%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 8.7 1%.

1. 1. Does the convertible bond index outperform the stock index?

In the 27 trading days since the beginning of the year, the number of days that the CSI convertible bond index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index was 15. They are 65438+1 0.3, 65438+10.8 ~ 65438+10.4, 65438+10.7 respectively. In more than half of the trading days, the convertible bond index outperformed the stock index, and the market elasticity was good.

1.2. Which convertible bonds perform better?

Since the beginning of the year, the listed convertible bonds of 65,438+065,438+08 have generally increased, and only Jiangnan convertible bonds have declined, with a decrease of 65,438+0.70%. Among the convertible bonds of 1 17, 26 bonds increased by more than 10%, and 58 bonds increased by 5% ~ 10%, among which the top five bonds increased by 26.62% and 22.6000 respectively.

From the perspective of convertible bonds, according to our statistics, since the beginning of the year, there are 59 bonds with convertible bonds outperforming convertible bonds, and 59 bonds with convertible bonds outperforming convertible bonds. Among them, Lu Sheng Convertible Bonds, CITIC Convertible Bonds and Lingnan Convertible Bonds have strong resilience. Lu Sheng convertible bonds stocks fell by 9.45%, and convertible bonds rose by 7.84%; The share price of CITIC convertible bonds fell by 10.06%, while convertible bonds rose by 6.11%; Lingnan convertible bonds decreased by 12.23%, while convertible bonds increased by 3.05%. This shows that the rise of positive shares is only one of the factors that promote the rise of convertible bonds. The increase in valuation is another factor in the soaring convertible bond market.

From the variety of convertible bonds, the current partial-share convertible bonds have the best increase, with the cumulative increase of11.61%since the beginning of the year; Followed by the balanced type, the cumulative increase reached 7.47%; The slightly weaker increase is the partial debt type, with an increase of only 5.4 1%.

From the perspective of industry, the convertible bond market covers 26 first-class industries in Shenwan, and there are no mining and comprehensive industries. Since the beginning of the year, all walks of life have increased, including communications (18. 14%), steel (1 1.24%), light manufacturing (10.93%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (.

From the stock market, since the beginning of the year, household appliances (17.96%), electronics (17.25%), food and beverage (17%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (16.56%), electrical equipment (/kloc). Due to the limited depth of the convertible bond market, there is a certain differentiation between the convertible bond market and the stock market in terms of industry performance.

2. Current factors driving the rise of convertible bonds

We often divide the influencing factors of convertible bond price into four items: stock, debt bottom, valuation and game terms. Among them, the core and most important factor is the stock price trend. This is mainly determined by the profit model of convertible bonds in China. As the short selling mechanism in China A-share market is not perfect, the rising share price is the fundamental profit model to promote the rising price of convertible bonds.

2. 1. Active stock promotion

An important factor in the price change of convertible bonds comes from the drive of stocks. With the gradual disclosure of 20 18 performance forecast by some listed companies, the share price and convertible bond price of companies with better performance have both increased, such as Sany Convertible Bond. Sany Heavy Industry released the annual performance forecast for 20 18 on October 26th, 20 19. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will increase by 182% to 202% in 20 18. For those companies whose performance continues to grow, there is a certain room for future stocks to rise. In the case of controllable risks, we are optimistic about the corresponding convertible bonds.

2.2. The valuation of partial-share convertible bonds increased.

At present, the conversion premium rate of partial convertible bonds is 3.94%, which is in the historical quantile of 44%; The YTM of debt-biased convertible bonds is 3.52%, which is in the historical quantile of 28%, lower than that of partial stocks. The valuation of partial-share convertible bonds has increased significantly.

2.3. Improvement of liquidity

Since the beginning of the year, the turnover in the convertible bond market has increased substantially, with an average daily turnover of about 2.2 billion yuan. Market liquidity has improved, and the improvement of liquidity also reflects the improvement of investor sentiment to some extent. In addition, the cumulative transaction amount of partial-share convertible bonds is significantly higher than that of balanced-share convertible bonds and partial-debt convertible bonds, indicating that this round of rise in the convertible bond market is mainly driven by the rise of partial-share convertible bonds.

3. Thinking about the convertible bond market

3. 1. Weak debt bottom protection

At present, the valuation of the convertible bond market has improved, and the trend of the subsequent convertible bond market depends more on the performance of the stock market. It can be seen that there are currently 29 convertible bonds with negative yield to maturity in the market, and these convertible bonds have performed well in the second round. At present, the average price level has reached 1 17 yuan, and the relative cost performance has declined, which has weak protection for the debt bottom. It is recommended not to blindly chase up, enter when there is a short-term price correction, and choose bonds carefully.

3.2. Investment strategy

We believe that at present, we should base ourselves on the fundamentals and choose high-quality convertible bonds with positive stocks. It is suggested to pay attention to convertible bonds of Avionics, Zhouming, Sany, Haier, Tong Yuan and Longji. In addition, considering the strong defensive nature and high dividend yield of bank convertible bonds, we think it is more suitable to allocate assets in the medium and long term and increase the safety margin of positions. It is suggested to pay attention to Pingyin convertible bonds, Changshu convertible bonds and Ningxing convertible bonds. Finally, pay more attention to new debt, participate in innovation appropriately, and improve the cost performance of positions.

Second, this week's market review

1. Stock market

The stock market has improved this week. As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.45% to 2,682.39 points. The GEM index rose 6.8 1% to close at 1, 357.84 points. In terms of sectors, the industry generally rose this week. Only the banking sector fell 1.02%. Among them, the industries with the biggest increase were electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and communication, with the increase rates of 10.97%, 10.59% and 8.37% respectively.

2. Bond market

The bond market continued to rise this week. On Monday, bonds rose, treasury bonds futures rose strongly, reverse repurchase was suspended, and short-term capital prices rose. 10, the main contract rose by 0.3 1%, and the main contract rose by 0. 19% in 5 years. The yield of spot bonds 10-year major interest rate bonds fell by more than 3bp. The trading volume of spot bonds is light, the short end is relatively active, and the yield trend is divided; On Tuesday, most treasury bonds futures closed down, with the 10-year main contract falling by 0.1/0/%,the 5-year main contract falling by 0.02%, and the yield of spot bonds 10-year main interest rate bonds falling slightly. On Wednesday, bond futures were weak. The main contract in 10 fell by 0. 12%, the main contract in 5 years fell by 0.03%, and the main contract in 2 years was flat. The yield of cash bonds 10-year major interest rate bonds rose slightly; On Thursday, spot bonds weakened, 10 closed down by 0.23%, the yield of active bonds rose by nearly 2bp, and the issuance of new bonds picked up. On Friday, the diving increase of treasury bonds futures narrowed significantly. The main contract of 10-year bonds closed up by 0.05%, and the main contract of 5-year bonds rose by 0.03%.

3. Convertible bond market

This week, the CSI convertible bond index rose by 1.64% compared with last week, and closed at 302. 12. Judging from the performance of individual stocks, most convertible bonds have increased, among which Kangtai convertible bonds, special convertible bonds and Wanshun convertible bonds have the largest increase, with increases of 10.58%, 9.86% and 8.77% respectively. Everbright Convertible Bonds, Cai Dong Convertible Bonds and Haier Convertible Bonds experienced the largest declines, with the declines of 0.84%, 0.95% and 2. 15% respectively.

This week, the turnover in the convertible bond market was 65.438+07.055 billion yuan, an increase of 52.09% over the previous week.

4. Progress of primary market issuance

This week, * * * 7 companies released the latest progress of convertible bonds, among which 3 companies issued the board plan of convertible bonds, and 4 companies' convertible bonds were approved by the shareholders' meeting.

Third, risk warning.

1) Risks brought by changes in economic fundamentals and stock market fluctuations.

2) The performance of positive shares is less than expected, and the risk of equity pledge.

This article comes from Du Yue bond market.

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