One of the trends: the pace of internationalization of RMB is accelerating
It is difficult for RMB to become a freely convertible currency, and steady appreciation is the general trend
The next 1 years will be a decade of accelerated internationalization of RMB. In 22, the proportion of RMB in international trade settlement will exceed 1%, and the proportion in international reserves and foreign exchange transactions will even be as high as 15%. By 22, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will be around 4.2: 1, with an average annual appreciation of about 4.5% without the collapse of the US dollar.
in the next 1 years, the internationalization of RMB will be more driven by the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy and foreign trade. Accelerating the internationalization of RMB will promote the reform of interest rate and exchange rate, the expansion of capital market and the improvement of monetary supervision and control.
compared with the scale of China's economy and the proportion of foreign trade in the global total, the international status of China's RMB has obviously lagged behind, but the improvement of the internationalization level of RMB has always been restricted by China's economic growth mode and financial supervision level. The impact of the financial crisis on the global economy and the existing major international currencies, especially the US dollar, provides a rare opportunity to accelerate the internationalization of RMB.
It is estimated that China's GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 8% in the next 1 years. By 22, China's total economic output will reach about 75.7 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to about 11 trillion US dollars at the current exchange rate. Considering the appreciation of RMB, China's economic scale may be close to that of the United States, more than double that of Japan, equivalent to 2% of the global GDP.
in terms of trade, China's import and export will also grow at an average annual rate of 8%, which will still be faster than the global average growth rate of 5%. As a result, China's total foreign trade will reach 6.4 trillion US dollars by 22, greatly surpassing the United States and ranking first in the world, accounting for 13% of the total global trade by then. And China's foreign trade will turn from surplus to deficit. In 22, the proportion of RMB in international trade settlement will be roughly equal to that of China's foreign trade in global trade, and the proportion of RMB in reserve assets may be higher.
the fetters of RMB internationalization still exist. First of all, China's economic growth relies too much on exports and investment, and the double surplus of trade and investment hinders the export of RMB, which is the primary condition for the internationalization of local currency. Even if foreign trade and investment are all settled in RMB, the double surplus of export and investment will absorb the RMB flowing out through import payment and foreign investment, resulting in a shortage of RMB circulation abroad, or we can only support the need of RMB international circulation by greatly increasing foreign exchange reserves, that is, exchange the inflow of foreign exchange such as US dollars for RMB output.
The process of RMB going abroad will be accompanied by the further opening and expansion of China's capital market, providing a sufficient "asset pool" for overseas RMB holders to invest. The formation mechanism of RMB interest rate and exchange rate will also be more market-oriented, which will reduce the risk of holding RMB. Capital entry and exit controls will be relaxed to meet the liquidity requirements of RMB asset investors for investment safety and profitability.
all these trends will promote the perfection of monetary and financial control measures in China.
within p>1 years, it is still difficult for RMB to become a freely convertible currency. However, the steady appreciation of RMB is the general trend. It is estimated that by 22, it will appreciate more than 6% against the US dollar, first slowly and then quickly, with an average annual appreciation of about 4.5%.
The second trend: new energy will help China become a powerful automobile country
A number of world-renowned Volkswagen brands will be bred in the low-end automobile market
By 22, China's car ownership will still lag behind that of the United States, and the car ownership of 1, people will still fall short of the world average.
the pressure of energy and environmental protection brought by the rapid growth of the automobile market will promote the development of new energy vehicles in China, and it is likely to be an opportunity for China's automobile industry to narrow the gap with automobile powers.
in the past 1 years, China's automobile production and market have grown at a high speed nearly double the GDP growth rate, and private consumption has become the biggest driving force for the rapid growth of China's automobile market. After 1 years, the popularity of automobiles in Chinese cities will become a necessity for urban residents' daily life, just like today's color TV sets. It will be very common for families in big cities to own two or more cars, and cars will also enter rural areas on a large scale. Some models, such as light trucks, pickup trucks and off-road vehicles, which can be used as both means of transportation and means of production, will open up a broad market in rural areas.
China's new car consumption market may surpass that of the United States sooner than expected, and this day will come in 215. In 22, the annual output of automobiles in China will exceed 2 million, double that of this year. By then, China's car ownership will reach at least 185 million, making it the largest car consumption market in the world after the United States.
The fast-growing automobile market in China will bring great pressure on energy and environmental protection, forcing China to accelerate the development of new energy vehicles and continue to improve the energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies of traditional vehicles. Technological progress will make China's automobile industry narrow the gap with the world's automobile powers.
if we adhere to the development idea of focusing on ourselves in the development of new energy vehicles, China is likely to take the lead in breaking through in the field of new energy vehicles and realize the transformation of China's automobile industry from large to strong. In 22, China will become one of the countries with the largest number of new energy vehicles in the world.
in p>22, the proportion of China's automobile exports in the whole domestic production will increase from 7.3% last year to about 2%. With the massive export of automobiles, China will breed a number of world-renowned Volkswagen brands in the low-end automobile market.
ten years ago, there were p>1 vehicle manufacturers in China, and the output of FAW, SAIC and SAIC accounted for 44% of the whole domestic output. In 28, although the number of domestic vehicle manufacturers decreased to 82, the proportion of the output of the three major groups in the total domestic output only increased by less than five percentage points, which was 48.7%. In the next 1 years, the status of the three major groups in China may face the challenge of other enterprises coming from behind.
The third trend: energy consumption ranks first in the world
The gap between domestic energy output and demand has widened, and the proportion of energy imports in total consumption has further increased
In the next 1 years, China will surpass the United States to become the world's largest energy consumer, but its per capita energy consumption is still only half that of Japan and Western European countries, less than one third of that of the United States and equivalent to the world average. The gap between China's domestic energy output and demand will further widen, and the proportion of energy imports in total consumption will increase from 3% at present to 2% in 22.
China's energy policy will face enormous pressure, and the international call for China to undertake more emission reduction obligations will gradually increase. Domestic people's awareness of environmental protection will also be significantly strengthened. Both of them will promote the transformation of China's energy structure to clean and the economic structure to low carbon.
in recent years, China's energy conservation and emission reduction policies have been strengthened, and the elastic coefficient of energy consumption has gradually dropped from 1.6 in 24 to .44 in 28, which is extremely rare in developing countries and new economies. If this ultra-low elasticity coefficient of energy consumption can be maintained compared with that of developing countries, with an average GDP growth of 8% in the next 1 years, energy consumption will increase by about 4% annually. By 22, China's total energy consumption will exceed 4.5 billion tons of standard coal, equivalent to 3.2 billion barrels of crude oil, which is close to the sum of the United States, Britain, France, Germany and Italy.
the increase of domestic energy production will not meet the increase of demand, and China's dependence on foreign energy will further increase. It is estimated that by 22, nearly 2% of China's energy demand will need to be met through imports. It is estimated that in 22, China's net energy imports will exceed 8 million tons of standard coal, equivalent to 56 million barrels of oil equivalent, accounting for about 1/5 of the total global energy exports.
the increase in energy demand brought by the rapid economic development in developing countries such as China will rapidly push up energy prices. Take oil as an example. After 1 years, the price of crude oil will rush to 2 US dollars/barrel (constant price in 28), at least firmly stand above 15 US dollars/barrel. There is basically no doubt that the actual prices of coal, natural gas, liquefied gas and uranium will double today.
The problem of carbon dioxide emission caused by the growth of energy consumption is increasingly becoming the focus of global attention. In the next 1 years, global climate and environmental problems will surpass terrorism to become the number one international issue. According to BP World Energy Statistics, from 2 to 28, the annual global energy consumption increased by about 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, of which China's consumption increase accounted for more than half.
vigorously developing non-carbon-based energy sources such as hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and even solar energy, and vigorously developing and popularizing clean energy technologies such as sulfur recovery and carbon capture are the only way out of China's energy dilemma. It is estimated that by 22, the proportion of coal in China's energy consumption will drop from the current 7% to below 6%, the proportion of relatively clean and efficient oil and gas will increase from 23% to nearly 27%, and the proportion of non-carbon-based energy will increase from 7% to 15% or even more.
the fourth trend: banks will move towards "financial department stores"
The leveraged products of banks will have a positive impact on the investment in the real economy by improving the efficiency of capital use
In the next 1 years, China's commercial banks will change from the traditional "financing intermediary" as the core to "wealth management" as the core, and retail business will become the main profit source of banks in the future, and the proportion of corporate business that contributes the most to bank profits will drop significantly.
In the future, banks will reduce their dependence on deposits to raise funds, highly leveraged financial derivatives brought by financial innovation will greatly improve the efficiency of capital use, and the profit model of traditional bank deposit-loan spread will gradually give way to the profit model of intermediary business.
in the future, banks will no longer mean "piggy bank" and "loan wholesaler" to customers, but "financial department stores" with banking as the core and radiating insurance, securities, funds, property rights management and other fields. Wealth asset management for customers will be the core business of banks.
In the future, when banks manage wealth on behalf of customers, the investment field will expand from traditional fields such as stocks, bonds and funds to structured derivatives, commodities and even works of art..
Banks will no longer focus on counter services. At present, financial terminals for customers to pay, deposit and withdraw money and inquire at bank outlets are expected to "fly into the homes of ordinary people", and online banking will complete all kinds of businesses that used to be handled only at bank outlets. As the most convenient payment tool launched by banks for customers, bank cards will make a great leap in function and appearance.
with the business of non-bank financial institutions gradually infiltrating into banks, for the sake of pursuing economies of scale and diversifying risks, large banks have to take measures such as mergers and acquisitions to expand their scale and improve their competitiveness, which will give birth to a number of financial holding companies engaged in mixed operations with commercial banks as the main body.
as a financial accelerator, bank leveraged products have a positive impact on real economy investment by improving the efficiency of capital use. At the same time, bank consumer credit promotes the increase of consumer leverage and plays a positive role in the economic transformation strategy of expanding domestic demand and restructuring.
the fifth trend: from a big textile country to a strong textile country
innovation will promote the extension of China's textile and garment industry structure to the high end of the value chain
in the next 1 years, China will leap from a big textile industry country to a strong one. While the textile and clothing market as a whole maintains rapid growth, the expansion of the household, especially industrial textiles market will be particularly eye-catching. As far as the total fiber consumption is concerned, clothing, household and industrial textiles will be "three-thirds of the world"
as an important symbol of the changes of the times, clothing records the historical changes in a non-textual way. It is an indisputable trend that clothing will be more diversified in the next 1 years. The concept of leisure life will penetrate into clothing consumption more widely and deeply, and people will pursue more to show their cultural level and taste through clothing.
the development prospect of China's clothing market is limitless. Looking back on the 3 years of reform and opening up, the number of garment enterprises in China has increased from only about 2, to nearly 3,, the number of employees has increased from less than one million to more than four million, the garment output has increased from less than two billion to more than 2 billion, and the garment export has grown from about one billion dollars to more than 1 billion dollars. The total export volume of China's garments accounts for more than 3% of the total global exports. At present, China's urban per capita clothing expenditure exceeds that of 1 yuan, which is more than five times that of rural residents. In the future, the urban and rural clothing consumption market will present huge development space.
compared with clothing, domestic and industrial textiles have a broader market space. At present, the proportion of fiber consumption in China's clothing, household and industrial textiles is 53: 33: 14, which is significantly lower than the 68: 22: 1 at the beginning of this century. It is expected that this proportion will evolve to 4: 35: 25 in 1 years, similar to the pattern of "three points in the world" in Europe and America today.
in the next 1 years, the growth point of China's textile industry and its contribution to society will be mainly reflected in industrial textiles. The market scale of industrial textiles will expand rapidly, covering transportation, railways, water conservancy, machinery, medicine and health, military industry and other fields. The process of urbanization and the construction of new countryside will also fully release the market demand for home textiles such as decorative textiles and bedding.
in the next 1 years, the textile industry will still play an irreplaceable supporting role in the process of China's national economy achieving the development goals in the first 2 years of this century. The scale of textile industry will keep increasing, but the growth rate will slow down and the industrial structure will be optimized and upgraded. It is estimated that by 22, China's total fiber processing will exceed 4 million tons, accounting for 4% of the total global processing.
the sixth trend: the rapid rise of cultural and creative industries
the greatest potential is the deep integration of culture and other industries, especially manufacturing industries
in the next 1 years, cultural and creative industries will be rapidly integrated to form a new economic development paradigm-cultural and creative economy. The integration of cultural and creative elements will promote traditional industries, and the products and services of traditional industries will also become an important carrier of cultural communication.
the rapid development of digital communication technologies such as the internet will greatly stimulate the creativity of the whole people and accelerate the commercialization of creativity. A large number of cultural and creative enterprises will emerge one after another in the next 1 years, and on this basis, several comprehensive flagship enterprises will be formed. In 22, the contribution rate of these enterprises to China's GDP will increase from the current 3% to about 7%.
the next 1 years will be a decade of high cultural consumption in China. Traditional cultural industries will accelerate their penetration into other industries while upgrading and developing themselves. Culture and creativity will act on other industries such as tourism, manufacturing and even agriculture on a large scale, which will give birth to a cultural and creative economy based on traditional cultural industries in an all-round way, and promote China manufacturing to China creation.
in the next 1 years, the policy of expanding domestic demand and vigorously developing service industry will add new catalysts to the development of cultural and creative economy. The greatest potential is the deep combination of culture and other industries, especially manufacturing.
High-tech will be the accelerator of cultural and creative economy. The introduction of digital communication technology into thousands of households makes it possible for individuals to participate in and publish their creations anytime and anywhere. Hundreds of millions of netizens are a very huge creative resource.
Digital communication technology with strong personal attributes will also give birth to countless small and medium-sized cultural creative individuals and enterprises. At present, there are about 32 thousand registered cultural enterprises in China, from which a number of cross-industry, cross-media, cross-ownership and cross-regional cultural multimedia groups will emerge, among which