Black Swan Event 1: Titanic was the largest luxury passenger ship in the world at that time, and was called "unsinkable dream passenger ship". No one thought it would sink. It sailed from Southampton, England to new york on April 19 12, but it sank on the fourth night of its maiden voyage because it hit an iceberg in the North Atlantic. Due to the lack of enough lifeboats, 1500 people were buried at the bottom of the sea in this "black swan incident", which has become the most famous shipwreck so far.
Black Swan Event 2: Long-term Capital Management Company Long-term Capital Management Company established a complex quantitative model based on historical data, thinking that interest rates in emerging markets would decrease, while interest rates in developed countries would go in the opposite direction, so it bought a large number of emerging market bonds and shorted US Treasury bonds. To everyone's surprise, in August 1998, 1998, Russia announced the devaluation of the ruble and delayed the repayment of its foreign debt for three months. As a result, Russian national debt depreciated sharply and completely lost its liquidity. From the Russian financial turmoil in May to the total collapse in September, the well-known hedge fund's net asset value dropped by 90% in just 150 days, with a huge loss of $4.3 billion, leaving only $500 million, which was on the verge of bankruptcy. The sharp depreciation of Russian national debt is a black swan that no one can foresee, which once again confirms this view: financial markets are unprepared for unpredictable emergencies.
Black Swan Event III: The most famous victim of the Black Swan Event was the American Long-term Capital Company, which was in its heyday. This hedge fund, established by Nobel Prize winners in economics and many Wall Street experts, has designed a "perfect" portfolio and achieved brilliant results. However, due to the global market chain reaction triggered by the Russian national debt repayment crisis, its complex model was unpredictable, which led to heavy losses and eventually ended in bankruptcy.
Black Swan Incident 4: "9 1 1" Incident 20065438+0 On the morning of September11,Americans were about to start their day's work when terrorists hijacked four planes and crashed into the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington. More than 3,000 people were killed in this black swan incident, and the American economy was once paralyzed, and the huge economic losses could not be counted by numbers. This is a typical black swan event, which is unexpected and has great influence.
Black Swan Event 5: During the Spring Festival of China Blizzard in 2008, large-scale rain and snow weather occurred continuously from west to east in China, involving Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi and other provinces 14. This winter, the "black swan" caused the affected area of crops to be 42 19.8 thousand hectares; 107,000 houses collapsed and 399,000 houses were damaged; The direct economic loss due to the disaster was 22.09 billion yuan.
Google's amazing success is such a "black swan". For nassim nicholas taleb, the black swan is everywhere, which is the foundation of almost everything in the world-from the rise of religion to the private life of each of us.
In addition, the bankruptcy of Bahrain Bank due to a trader's illegal operation also belongs to the Black Swan incident. The frequent occurrence of black swan events reminds investors of the danger and unpredictability of the stock market.