? Peng Kangjing, an analyst at Xinghan Capital

Before studying the tuyere of charging treasure, we must first clarify two concepts, one is "tuyere" and the other is "enjoying". The so-called "tuyere" refers to an industry or field that has obtained rapid development opportunities with the support of national policies, conforms to the trend of social development or has huge profit potential. The so-called "* * * enjoyment" means using the Internet to redistribute idle resources on the premise that the ownership remains unchanged and the right to use is temporarily transferred.

since ofo*** started to enjoy bicycles in 214, various business models such as * * * enjoying umbrellas, * * enjoying sleeping cabins and * * enjoying charging treasures have been scrambling to occupy the capital market, but only selling * * * enjoying new bottles and filling them with "leased" old wines. Among them, the * * * charging treasure that broke out in 17 years is particularly eye-catching, creating the myth of financing 1.2 billion yuan in 4 days. What is the factor that makes the * * * charging treasure still set off a wave of enthusiasm in the buzz of "false demand"? * * * How long will the outlet of charging treasure last? Which companies will survive after the storm?

First, the reasons for the appearance of the tuyere

1. Social factors

Compared with traditional economic activities, * * * enjoys the obvious advantages of "three lows and three highs", namely, low cost, low threshold, low pollution, high efficiency, high experience and high credibility. In the period of slowing economic growth, * * * enjoying the economy is of great significance for promoting supply-side structural reform, helping "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" and building new national advantages in the information age. Thanks to the popularity of Internet and smart phones in China since 21, the convenience of mobile micropayments and the development of O2O, the * * * enjoyment economy has developed rapidly in China. According to the China Sharing Economy Development Report 217, the transaction volume of China's * * * enjoyment economy market in 216 was about 3,452 billion yuan, up 13% over the previous year, and it will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 4% in the next few years.

In fact, as early as 214, the first charging treasure company "Call Technology" was established. With the economic enjoyment of * * * written into the government work report for two consecutive years, it was not until 217 that * * * charging treasure as a sub-industry of * * * enjoyed the economy ushered in a full-scale outbreak.

although * * * charging treasure is generally not optimistic since its birth, it is considered as a "pseudo-demand" under "* * *", however, * * * charging treasure can still meet the needs of mobile phone users to a certain extent. At present, for the vast majority of smartphone users, the power of mobile phones has become a sense of security, and the demand for mobile phone power has become just needed. With the development of mobile Internet, there are more and more mobile applications, and the functions of smart phones are becoming richer and richer. The energy consumption of mobile phones has increased significantly, but the battery density and standby time have not improved substantially. When people are in the mobile state, they will often face the situation of no electricity. Some people will choose to carry the charging treasure with them when they go out, but some people forget to carry it, and even think that carrying the charging treasure with them is a burden. * * * Enjoying the charging treasure can meet the random and emergency needs of people when they go out, and will be welcomed by business users, game users, social experts, video users and live broadcast experts when they are out.

therefore, the emergency charging demand of smartphone users when they are away from home is the origin of the charging treasure industry, but this demand is not rigid, so it is not enough to create the outlet for charging treasure. In the future, people's demand for * * * charging treasure and whether this demand can be transformed into rigid demand depends on the development of people's usage habits after the charging treasure is laid to a certain density.

2. Business model factors

At present, the * * * charging treasures on the market can be roughly divided into three categories according to the usage scenarios:

? One is mobile * * * enjoyment in mobile mode, which stands for "call technology" and focuses on big scenes; People and charging equipment can be moved, such as borrowing charging treasure from place A to place B, focusing on large-scale equipment, including shopping malls, high-speed rail, railway stations, airports, scenic spots, hospitals and other places with heavy traffic. A single device can put dozens of charging treasures.

second, mobile enjoyment in fixed scenes, which stands for "street electricity technology" and focuses on small scenes; When people are active near point A, they need to borrow a charging treasure, and they can borrow it after paying a deposit from a cabinet that is not that big. Focus on small counters, including restaurants, cafes, bars, etc. Generally, there are 6 or 12 charging treasures in a single cabinet.

the third is the fixed enjoyment in a fixed scene, which stands for "small electricity" and focuses on every desktop; The wire machine is integrated. When there is a charging treasure on the desktop, there is no need to pay a deposit, and you can charge it directly after scanning the code.

from the operation process, the borrowing process of * * * charging treasure can be roughly divided into four steps: code scanning-registration-payment-lending. Generally, the whole process takes less than 3 minutes. The return method is similar to * * * sharing a bicycle. Users can return it nearby according to the GPS positioning of the charging treasure on the WeChat official account platform. The payment methods of the three modes all choose to pay by scanning code, which is generally free for the first .5-1 hour, and then charges 1 yuan every hour. The difference is that "Caller Technology" not only provides charging treasure, but also provides data line sales service, and has credit deposit-free service; "Small electricity" does not need to pay a deposit, and users can charge online after scanning the code to place an order.

it can be seen that the layout of * * * charging treasure is very extensive, and the three models can fully cover restaurants, KTV, bars, cafes, gyms, shopping malls, scenic spots, hospitals, bus stations, railway stations, airports and other public places, which have the basic conditions for large-scale expansion. Therefore, a wide range of promotion channels is a boosting force for * * * to enjoy charging treasure. In addition, the charging experience and business model of * * * enjoying charging treasure are similar to that of * * * enjoying bicycle. The business model of "Mobile internet plus Rental" has passed the market verification, and users who have received bicycle education will be more likely to accept * * * enjoying charging treasure, so the lower trial and error cost is also an important factor in the formation of the outlet.

3. Capital factor

According to public statistics, since March 31, 217, the charging treasure industry of * * * has received 11 financings in 4 days, and nearly 35 institutions have entered the market, with the financing amount of about 1.2 billion yuan, nearly five times that of the financing amount when * * * enjoys bicycles in 215.

Ma Huateng, CEO of Tencent, has publicly stated: "Many people are not sure whether it is reliable to enjoy the charging treasure." If you are not sure, you should vote, because everyone has seen the entrance of offline traffic. At present, since the development of cmnet, the dividend period of traffic is close to the ceiling, and the online traffic is becoming more and more expensive, so the cost and difficulty of rebuilding the Internet Super APP are increasing. At the same time, the offline traffic with huge space has been in a relatively dispersed and unoperated state, which contains many opportunities. At present, the mobile payment infrastructure in China is basically popular, and the concept of * * * has also established a wide user base. For Tencent, investing in * * * to enjoy the charging treasure is similar to investing in * * * to enjoy the bicycle, which is a part of the strategic layout and takes it as a possible offline entrance; For Jumeiyou products, investing in charging treasure is to use enterprise diversification to cope with business decline and seek new amount.

In addition, the combination of capital and online celebrity will also add fuel to the flames. The public opinion effect formed by Chen Ou and Sicong's "Eating Xiang" gambling game in Weibo will quickly push the industry of * * * charging treasure to the forefront. A large number of capital will seize the opportunity to enter the market and complete arbitrage transactions while the iron is hot, and the influx of hot money will trigger investment hotspots. It can be seen that irrational capital is the behind-the-scenes pusher.

second, the reasons why entrepreneurs follow the trend. In the eyes of entrepreneurs, the concept of "* * * enjoyment" has now penetrated into the public. Although * * * enjoyment of charging treasure does not meet the requirements of high frequency and just need for the time being, entrepreneurs believe that with the large-scale launch and publicity, user habits can be gradually cultivated, so the market prospect of * * * enjoyment of charging treasure is very broad. In addition, * * * charging treasure can generate positive cash flow in a short period of time. The cost of a single charging treasure is around 1 yuan, and it is priced at 1 yuan/hour, and it can be recharged 3-5 times a day, so it can be returned in less than one month.

Third, the reasons why investors are chasing the wind

* * It is more in line with the Internet thinking to enjoy the charging treasure. First, it is simple to obtain traffic and has user value and traffic value; Second, it is easy to copy in different places; Third, with the help of capital, it is easy to quickly expand the scale and get dividends, which is also the reason why the capital market favors such projects.

Fourth, how to survive in the tuyere

The tuyere is often accompanied by bubbles, and the charging treasure industry itself has great risks.

first, the whole industry is facing the risk of technological change. There are two risks that need to be considered in the industry. One is the transformation and upgrading of battery technology. When the battery capacity of mobile phones is expanded to meet the power demand of users, will the charging treasure rental market become smaller when cheaper, lighter and larger-capacity charging treasures are introduced? Second, after the upgrading of the charging infrastructure, will the usage scene of the charging treasure be further eroded?

second, there is a danger of product substitution. The demand for charging does exist, but it can easily be replaced by other ways in large and small application scenarios. Especially in small scenes, the * * * charging treasure can be easily destroyed by the charging port, or the store may be replaced by a prepared free charging treasure or a rental charging treasure. Relatively speaking, the big scene is not so easy to be subverted.

thirdly, the industry is vulnerable to vicious competition. Vicious competition may occur in both large and small scenes, leading to diversion of orders and price drop. More and more competing products in the industry are handed over to merchants, which may also involve pressure from admission fees.

fourth, the profit model is single, and there is great uncertainty in advertising revenue. In the eyes of entrepreneurs who enjoy charging treasure, advertising revenue is one of the important cash flows in the future, but its value and income are very uncertain. Take the cabinet style as an example, which is not much different from offline media such as keyword Focus Media /keyword, and the competition is also fierce.

In the face of the above industry risks, the charging treasure-enjoying enterprises that can finally survive after the tuyere must have at least three characteristics:

First, the mode of cutting into the consumer side should be light enough, including canceling borrowing and returning, removing the deposit, etc. The lower the threshold, the better, so that consumers can enter the new consumption scene more naturally;

Second, considering from the team itself, it is necessary to have both the ground operation ability and the technical ability of the product itself. It is not as simple as it looks, and there are many product thresholds, including battery stability and connectivity requirements.

Third, besides our own team, we need more social forces and its ecological groups, such as recruiting city partners, to build the whole system and let more people in society participate.

*** The charging treasure market will form an oligopoly competition pattern after a period of tug-of-war. Because the charging treasure market in * * * may be a multi-billion-dollar market with a small market scale, after the competition of speed, channel and operation ability, the market will usher in a wave of reshuffle, and enterprises with small laying scale, poor operation ability and shortage of funds will be eliminated, and eventually an oligopoly competition pattern will be formed.

But * * * enjoys the charging treasure both online and offline, connecting consumers and terminals, which involves many links such as hardware research and development, production, channel promotion (involving the middle scene), offline operation, etc. It is an industry that emphasizes asset investment and operation, and it may take 1-2 years for the final market structure to become clear.